Saturday Forecast

53 Comments

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
The chill was in the air again this morning but you’ll notice that difference between January sun and March sun in a bigger way today, as even though we still will have below average temperatures, the air will have much less bite to it than it would have 2 months ago under the same set-up. No big changes to the overall outlook going forward. It’s funny how sometimes the sooner details are the tougher things to forecast, and that’s the case with the rain/snow line and its timing as our next storm system gets underway during Sunday morning. I’ve decided to just leave the forecast the same and not make any adjustments to expected snowfall, with a coating to 1 inch in general, probably nothing at all on the immediate South Coast / Cape Cod, but possibly up to 2 inches across the higher elevations of interior MA and southern NH with a 3-inch amount not impossible to achieve. The remainder of the forecast going forward is largely unchanged, with milder air behind the system Monday, and a chilly Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44, coolest along the shoreline. Wind light E.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow arriving pre-dawn RI/CT/central MA, by dawn eastern MA/southern NH. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow changing to rain from south to north during the morning then tapering to rain showers west to east late in the day. Highs 36-43. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a risk of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Watch for patchy black ice forming. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of snow showers early, then sun/cloud mix. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
High pressure builds along the East Coast and a cold front slowly approaches from the west so that temperatures go above normal March 14-15, but rain showers are likely on March 15. Colder air returns to the region during the March 16-17 weekend and beyond. What is uncertain at this time is whether or not there will be any additional storminess in the region which would bring a frozen precipitation threat. Will be re-evaluating this as things become more clear.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
The weather pattern will likely produce colder than average temperatures and may produce a couple of wintry precipitation threats during this period.

53 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    2. 3km NAM is the model I am most closely in agreement with, if I have to pick one.

      2. Hopefully that inch falls on the grass . I’ve got a lot of stuff going on that’s behind from working the last 3 weekend doing snow removal & I in no way will welcome an overnight call in .

  6. RDPS is advertising quite a SLEET FEST tomorrow lasting well into the afternoon.
    Contradicts most other guidance. We shall see.

        1. Oh, I figured that. Just thought it was interesting that
          this model is spitting this out. 🙂

  7. It’s nice out.

    A bit of a breeze off the ocean, but when the breeze went calm, I was comfortable without a jacket.

    Slow progress …..

  9. Hopefully there won’t be a repeat of what happened last weekend in Alabama where 23 people lost their lives due to the tornado there which I believe was an EF4.

    1. Hope not… from the watch…

      * Primary threats include…
      Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes
      possible
      Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
      Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

  10. Today’s set-up in the South is pretty volatile. They are right in the heart of their severe weather season there. It’s a bit later in the Plains.

  11. +PNA long term, long range models giving signal of amplified pattern with big west coast ridge, eastern US trof.

    Perhaps an opportunity for a more traditional east coast snowstorm just after mid month ????

    1. I am counting on it. By that time, even the most die hard snow lover and Winter
      weather enthusiast is ready for Spring. So, bet on it. It WILL happen.

      Don Kent and his on Air Radio partner, Carl de Suze used to call those type
      of storms a WHAMMIE. Gotta love it.

      1. When April 1st comes I am ready for spring but from December through March bring on the snow. With that said I would not be upset to see snow in April since it doesn’t stick around long.

        1. TK does predict up to 12 more inches for Logan, and I believe he predicted no snow this time for April.

          1. There is also the WHAMMY from the game show “Press Your Luck” 1983-86. Anybody remember it? It still comes on reruns.

  12. When I made my weather prediction for 2019 one of them was a snowstorm on the first day of spring. There are some signs of wintry precipitation being possible then. I am zero for two so far with predictions this year. For April I said snow flakes flying for the Red Sox home opener.

      1. Breathtakingly beautiful. My favorite part of skiing was stopping on the side of the slope and just enjoying the view. Would drive my dad crazy because I could stand there for an hour.

        Thank you, Mark. Awesome photos and equally awesome memories. I’m happy you are having a great weekend.

  15. After reviewing all available INFO, still no change. This is mainly a daytime (morning) frozen event. It wasn’t that cold today. It won’t be super-cold tonight. The ground is not that cold. It won’t hold snow (pavement). Existing snow will hold it, but existing snow is in a place by now that it’s not in the way of anything, so it becomes pretty much a non-event other than brief coatings on untreated surfaces early to mid morning before it flips to rain (sleet mix possible for a bit). This will obviously stay snow a little bit longer to the north in MA and in southern NH but even there, not all that much is going to fall. An inch or 2, with the 2 or isolated 2+ confined to the higher hills.

    I haven’t looked down the road too much today but still have a feeling about the period March 18-24 roughly. Things can come together to produce a widespread winter weather event somewhere in there.

  17. Icicles are all on the north side of my house. I remember in 2015 they were all on the south side. I have always assumed that typically icicles form on the south side of a house.

    Does anyone else here have icicles on their house since the last snowstorm?

    1. We don’t have icicles. I know it has something to do with the construction. We don’t have ice dams either. No one in neighborhood does. I saw someone roof raking the the other day and shuddered. I don’t miss that. We had Icicles both north and south in framingham. Also ice dams but far worse on north side. And leaks on both sides

        1. Ours did as well. A ton have them in Sutton and all around now.

          There is some sort of roof ventilation that prevents ice damns and icicles. I don’t understand it. I’m sure someone here do

          1. I’m no roofing expert, but my understanding is that when the attic is warm from poor insulation and poor attic ventilation, the heat melts the snow on the roof. When the water runs to the eaves, it can freeze because the eaves are not heated from below. This builds up to create ice dams and icicles.

            We have a very old house and had bad ice damming. Once we insulated the floor of the attic and had proper roofing ventilation installed, the problem went away. We used to have icicles that went all the way from the eaves on the second level of a colonial almost to the ground!

            1. You are correct about that. There are remedies for older homes. This house is 9 years old and insulated to the gills. Heating it costs next to nothing. Maybe 1,5 tanks of oil in a year.

              I found this

              For new construction it’s easy. Design the house to include plenty of ceiling insulation, a continuous air barrier separating the living space from the underside of the roof, and an effective roof ventilation system. Insulation retards the conductive flow of heat from the house to the roof surface. An air barrier retards the flow of heated air to the underside of the roof. And a good roof-ventilation system helps keep the roof sheathing cold. In an existing house this approach may be more difficult to follow

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