Tuesday Forecast

86 Comments

6:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
If you’re up early enough, you’ll find clouds dominant in a good portion of southern NH, eastern MA, and northern RI, and some of those will slip further south into mid morning as a cold front and upper level disturbance pass by. A few snow flurries may visit southeastern NH but will not cause any problems as they pass by. All of this will be out of here during mid morning and the rest of the day will be sunny, breezy, and somewhat cooler than yesterday as a fresh push of chilly air from Canada moves in, but nothing like the visit we had last week! The chill hangs around into Wednesday, but it will be a very nice day with light wind. A warm front crosses there region Wednesday night with cloudiness and a little light snow/rain possible, so if you see snowflakes falling at some point Wednesday night, don’t worry, as it will be fleeting and insignificant. This sets up a mild day Thursday with plenty of sun. Another mild day is on tap for Friday, probably warmer than Thursday, but the price to pay will be afternoon and evening rain showers ahead of a cold front which will return the region to a little more March reality during the course of Saturday, which will be cooler with a gusty wind. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then clearing mid morning with a sunny midday and afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Risk of a little light snow/rain late evening. Lows 28-35 late evening but may rise slowly overnight. Wind light variable evening, light SW overnight.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s, cooler South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
St. Pat’s Day Sunday March 17 looks dry and chilly with high pressure in control. Below normal temperatures are still expected to dominate the balance of the period and we will have to continue to be on the look-out for potential storminess with the threat of frozen precipitation or a mix. Regardless of the weather, the Vernal Equinox occurs on March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
A transition from below normal temperatures to milder may take place this period with still a risk of a wintry event to start the period and a risk of a significant precipitation producing system around mid period. Could it be the 3rd month in a row with a storm system on the 24th? Bets anyone? Time will tell.

86 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. If you are a member of Facebook and follow my weather page there for links to the blog, you’ll note that for the first time in the over 8-year history of WHW I used the word “skedaddle” on a post. 😉

      1. In that case, maybe 3rd time will be the charm and it snows instead. Although bad things tend to happen in threes.

  7. Full moon at perigee on vernal equinox this year. Big astronomical tides, twice per day in that time period, would be interesting, to say the least, if we saw a big storm.

    1. If it happens I’m going to Hampton. They flood pretty dramatically on the back side when that occurs.

  9. Thanks TK.

    A very quiet stretch of weather that we’ve settled into. Precip totals over the next 8-10 days may fall under an inch. That’s low for March. Nice warm-up for the end of the week. And the cooler pattern beyond then doesn’t look to have a whole lot of bite given the strong +AO pattern and MJO now out of the cold phases. Nothing Arctic, and probably nothing long lasting. So it really is a much more springlike pattern than a winter one at this point.

  11. Thanks TK
    This day in the weather history The Superstorm of 1993. I remember that storm as a nine year old with the snow close to my knee caps. A former meteorologist in CT said on Wednesday The Big Khuna was coming Saturday and it did. The first memorable winter storm in my life. Other memorable storms that come to mind in my life the blizzard of 96 April Fools Storm of 97 October 2011 Nor’easter and the blizzard of 2013.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century

    1. re: Super Storm

      Loads of hype with that one. Honestly, I was not impressed. Not for my area.
      I “think” we managed 13 inches and then a period of SLEET with THUNDER
      and Vicious LIGHTNING at the end. It “may” have rained at Logan, but it didn’t
      rain a drop at my house in JP.

      Most memorable part of the storm was NOT the snow, but the lightning. 🙂

      1. Hype. I thought there was significant damage in many areas of the country as well as coastal damage in our area. We had significant snowfall as I recall

    2. Was it March 13 in MA. Or am I off by a day again? My son turned 9 on March 13 1993. I thought you and he were same age. Looks as if I’m off by another year there also. Seems to be story of my life

  12. I beginning to get the sense that any storminess on or about/around 3/20 will
    be too far off shore to affect us in any meaningful way. I know there is still
    much time for that to change and the energy for the event is still out in the Pacific, but
    I just am not liking the trends. Each successive run seems to have the system
    a bit farther off shore.

    EURO has an absolute BOMB! but a complete FISH storm for us up here.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019031200/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

    CMC is off shore, but still affects us somewhat

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019031200/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

    GFS ????????????????????????????????????????

    KAPLOOEY )(!@&*#&!@*(&#*(!&@*(#&!*(&#*(!&@#*(&!*(@#&*(!&

  13. The amounts of snow the Superstorm produced in parts of the south and the tornadoes the storm produced in Florida was something.

    1. Very true. I was simply saying, not nearly as much in my area. Good storm, don’t get me wrong, but impressive snow totals (in my area)? NOPE.

      I’d take that storm now in a heartbeat. 🙂

  15. For that Superstorm, Logan received 12.8 inches and iirc they did change to rain for awhile but later back to sleet. Another one of those weird changeover events that are typical for March. TK educated me on that aspect. 😉

    JPD I have to disagree. That storm was impressive enough for me as a snow lover. I recall most religious activities were cancelled regionwide the next day Sunday. And iirc it stayed cold for awhile after that.

    1. Hey, we’re all different. To you it was impressive, to me it was not. Simple as that. As you know, it takes some to impress me with snow and snow totals.
      I AIN’T NEVER SATISFIED.

            1. Of course I know (I am a STICKLER for grammar!). C’mon get with the program and roll with it. 🙂

              1. JPD. May we agree it wasn’t hyped even if it didn’t meet your standards?

                Macs parents were in London and heard about it there. They asked us to contact friends in Charleston to secure outdoor furniture etc.

  17. Superstorm of 1993 was a very memorable storm for me growing up in Upstate NY. I was a junior in high school at the time. We had 27″ of snow from it in Amsterdam NY and drifts over 4 feet. My father needed to bring in his bucket loader to clear the driveway. Despite the storm happening largely on a Saturday, we had school cancelled on both Monday and Tuesday. Wish I had some pictures to share but they are all hard copy prints at my mother’s house and not digitized.

    I remember tracking this storm 7+ days in advance when the TWC and the local meteorologists in Albany started talking about it. It was extremely well forecast long in advance by the models. It was a huge dip in the jetstream and triple phased storm forming in the GOM. It absolutely raced northeast up the coast and broke all kinds of low pressure records at cities up and down the east coast. I can’t even imagine the astronomical snow totals that would have occurred if there was any sort of blocking in place. As it was, it dumped 12″+ of snow in northern Georgia and Alabama, and nearly 50″ in Syracuse (2 feet up front and 2 feet on the back side from lake effect).

    Here’s a couple classic YouTube links of storm coverage from the TWC. Love watching these…

    https://binged.it/2HsjJ92

    https://binged.it/2HtFu8i

    1. Indeed, just not in Boston. Sure it was a very decent storm, but
      those monumental totals were not realized near the coast. 🙂
      The center actually passed a bit WEST of Boston. Thankfully it was quite cold
      and it stayed snow for nearly the whole event, save for the very end.

    2. Mark, you are very correct about it being well forecast in advance. Thank you for the links – headed off to watch them.

    3. These are awesome videos, Mark. First, yikes the hair styles. Second, amazing that Atlanta looked like a noreaster we’d see. My sister in law was living in London at the time (which is why inlaws were there) so I didn’t pay the attention I normally would have.

      Thank you

      And I want one….please!

  18. As I said earlier with that storm I remember the snow coming near my knee caps as that was the most snow at that point in my life from a winter storm. My Saturday bowling league was cancelled that day. A few days prior it was clear something big was brewing.

  19. Curious as to who the 12Z runs handle the “potential” storm system(s) for the period
    3/18 through 3/22 or so??????????????????????

    1. Boston made our pretty good as well flip-flopping between rain and wet snow at nearly a foot. Cape mostly rain.

    3. Some of those 40-50″ totals, and totals like that over such a widespread area from the CT coast to northern NYS, seem too astronomical to believe. With the amount of wind involved with that blizzard, I would have to imagine many of those measurements were tainted.

  24. Superstorm 1993 stands as the most impressive mid latitude synoptic event in all my years of observing such events. I have never seen a low pressure area impact that great an area that significantly, ranging from flattened sugarcane in Cuba to major snow in southeastern Canada, and this doesn’t even touch upon some of the details of severe weather damage and snowfall records that occurred in between those areas.

    For our area, it was very impressive as far as March storms go. It was definitely not about the snow amount but the initial snowfall rate, the wind in advance of and behind the passage of the low, and most of all the pressure readings as that low came up overhead. Lowest I’ve ever seen my barometer (28.54 inches!). And the next day, after the temp had gone cold and froze the foot of snow had had partially filled with water from the change to rain, it was probably the most difficult shoveling I have ever had to do. Watching that low’s dry slot come flying up the coast and shut the precipitation down was also one of the more impressive things I have seen. Many of my colleagues rank this in their top 3 events from their careers. THAT says it all.

    While locally, there are other events that rank above that, this particular event is still #1 in terms of overall impact.

    1. Thanks, TK. Very interesting indeed!! It is one that is impossible to forget…..even in terms of it being covered well before its arrival in Europe.

      1. That synoptic set-up was about as rare as the one that caused “The Perfect Storm” in 1991, Sandy, or The Blizzard of ’78. Not so much that we had a big low coming from the Gulf up the East Coast, but the intensity of the low as far south as it was, the sheer size of the low’s impact area, and the speed in which the center was moving.

  25. Mark, love the videos you posted. Tom Chisholm was on Boston TV (Ch 7) and I believe in Providence (I may be wrong about that one) before it in the 1980s.

    I really miss that version of TWC. Those weather maps were beautiful and this was before weather was marketed as a form of entertainment, but presented as news that impacts everybody on a daily basis. I miss the industry in that form.

    And I saw the reference above to this being well-forecast. That was indeed the case by all major outlets and many private meteorologists. It was a pattern and a set-up that left very little to question. We’re not always that lucky.

    1. I remembered Dennis Smith and Charlie Welch very well from that era as well as Bill Keneely and of course Jim Cantore. Not so much Tom Chisholm.

      I agree, I loved the TWC in the late 80’s and early 90’s. I watched it religiously as a child. Turned it on every day when I got home from school. Now I only watch it for coverage during major weather events.

    1. For the record, I never did use the word “big” with the word “potential” when talking about that period. 🙂 Just clearing myself. 😉

      1. No You didn’t. I was referring to the “big” systems previously
        depicted by the CMC and the Euro.

        1. I figured as much. Just making sure nobody else thought I said it. 😉

          (see comment below from WxW)

  27. For the first time all winter, the pattern generally being modeled at days 7-10 actually looks like El Nino. And it won’t last long. Goes to show that ENSO has been a total non-factor this winter.

    IMO, if there’s any threat of winter weather in the Northeast over the next two weeks, it’s earlier than when most people are looking for it. Around about 3/18, give or take a day. At least then, the ridge in the West will be in a somewhat better position for storminess. But even then, the more likely outcome is a mostly dry one.

  28. I was just looking at that “around 3/18” thing……………. Exactly why I have broad wording in my outlook today.

    1. I like the ridge position. Trough is a little shallow and a little too positive the way it looks now. But it at least looks like a decent clipper coming in then on the northern stream side of things. If the trough can dig a little deeper and rotate a little sooner, maybe things get interesting.

  30. An astonishing 21″ more of new snow at Jay Peak since Sunday AM. They had about 3″ fresh and it was snowing hard when we left early Sunday PM. They ended up with 6″ Sunday and received an additional 12-15″ in upslope snows yesterday. 361″ on the year now and one of the deepest snowpacks in VT in recorded history.

    As a point of comparison……Vail CO is sitting at 294″ and Beaver Creek 278″ on the season.

    2. Arizona snow bowl, 6355 N. Highway 180, Flagstaff, AZ 86001
      is sitting at 294 inches on the season as well. 🙂

      Arizona Snowbowl is an alpine ski resort in the southwest United States, located on the San Francisco Peaks of northern Arizona, seven miles (11 km) north of Flagstaff.[1] The Snowbowl ski area covers approximately one percent of the San Francisco Peaks,[2] and its slopes face west and northwest.

      Starting its skiing operations 81 years ago in 1938, the base elevation of Arizona Snowbowl is at 9,200 feet (2,805 m) above sea level, and the resort receives an average annual snowfall of 260 inches (660 cm). The lift-served summit at 11,500 feet (3,505 m) yields a 2,300-foot (700 m) vertical drop, the largest in Arizona, served by six chairlifts and two lodges, Hart Prairie Lodge and Agassiz Lodge

  31. And now a short break from weather to say M.P.’s strategy of over-paying for veterans just because they are former Patriots will likely back-fire. A former Patriot on another team is not a magic pill. The Patriots function the way they do because of the way the players are used by coaching staff and the way they respond within this incredibly efficient system. The fact that it has lasted this long is a testament to how incredibly good it is, and how incredibly good those doing it are at what they do. That is also what irks the haters, to which I say, oh well. That’s life. But hey, it won’t last forever. Everybody involved is mortal. 😉

    https://weei.radio.com/blogs/alex-reimer/detroit-lions-free-agency-overpaying-former-patriots-opposite-bill-belichicks?fbclid=IwAR00cJVEuoU8F8aH8As2AuPaQM0gvjeLFZ45wIzFWtkTYot2nLui3VZoMxA

    2. Absolutely. The question has always been whether Brady is great because of BB or BB is great because of Brady. There is a simple answer and you have given it. But the haters could spend less time hating and more time emulating. Much of the strategy is there for the taking. Fools all.

  33. Research concluded of all the species in that moved north during the worst under sea heatwave on the west coast . Many subtropical and tropical species moved further north, as far north as british colombia. Some species of emamsobranches ( Sorry I buthured this name, it’s a really cool looking invertebrate), barnicles, annemanees, certain sea urchins. More migratory or moveable species have gone back south But some have permanent colonies well north of native waters.

    1. We had a neighbor in framingham who fished commercially. I can’t recall name of person he often went out with but he is with nat geo. He said years ago they were seeing species of fish here that they’d never seen.

      1. yes its been happening for a while now, been rapidly happening the past 20 years but in the past 10 years especially here in the Atlantic. We have seen fish that use to be more typical off the mid-atlantic and SE coast up here. But on the east coast the ocean current travels from south to north until about here in southern new england and then goes over towards europe with a northern ocean current (labrador moving southward into the Gulf of maine) So its easier for animals to travel from south to north on the east coast. On the west coast its not as simple and the current actually goes from North to south. plus the contenental shelf is much smaller and it gets deep much quicker. So to have what happen on the west coast happen is very very different and and a true sign. If people don’t listen to the climate scientists, at least listen to our seafood 🙂

  34. 18z GFS has the clipper Monday and potential for a few inches of snow and quite the potent back door cold front later in the week. No major storms though.

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