Wednesday Forecast

57 Comments

7:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
High pressure brings a cool but tranquil day to southeastern New England today, but you’ll notice high cloudiness streaming in during the day which may thicken up enough to blot out the sun before we would see it set. This is a signal of warmer air moving into the region, which often happens aloft first. At the surface it will be here tomorrow, and especially Friday. But tomorrow is the pick, weather-wise, as Friday eventually turns wet ahead of an approaching cold front. By the weekend, look for a cool-down but with mainly dry weather as we will be in a brisk northwesterly air flow Saturday and then more tranquil for St. Patrick’s Day as high pressure moves in. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds then sun fades later. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk for brief light snow/sleet/rain crossing the region. Lows 28-35 by late evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light variable evening, light SW overnight.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
This is a vulnerable period for colder than average weather and also 1 or 2 potential winter weather events. A small system will pass nearby on March 18 and may be close enough for snow/mix. We will have to watch the evolution of a potential second system mid to late period. No guarantee anything happens but also cannot blindly rule it out.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Another weather system may threaten around March 24 and this period will transition from chilly to somewhat milder weather, but any time you look into the future and see milder chances in March you must keep in mind snowcover still very plentiful to the north and the cold ocean water, both of which can have local and regional impact. So even though by then the calendar says “spring”, that season in this part of the country is never a slam dunk to start off all warm and sunny with everything blooming. In fact, even in a milder pattern, it’s not starting that way here. That comes later…

57 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Makes sense given the above average snow pack. But the weather pattern upcoming may help reduce that threat somewhat. Make no mistake, there will be issues. But we may be able to sublimate and slowly melt a good percentage of that snow so as to avoid major issues in many areas. The areas most prone to it won’t be so lucky.

      1. That would be great! Looks like the high temperatures will stay above freezing for many days the next two weeks.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I only briefly looked at some models while sitting on the bed with my mobile device
    half asleep and groggy eyed, BUT it appeared to me that something “may” be cooking
    for around about 3/22. 🙂

        1. It’s nice there sue my wife & I go every September to celebrate our anniversary as We like it there a lot.

                1. Appreciate the info. I upgraded to a harbor view room. Figured I may as well go all out if I am spending that kind of money for a night. 🙂

                2. Our first room was a harbor view . Last September they put us in a two room suite & all other kind of other surprises , it was a welcoming upgrade

  8. The “bomb cyclone” in the Plains is really cranking now. Storm center pressure is now down to hurricane strength in the 970’s mb.

    In the last hour, Denver International has reported heavy snow, 32F, with sustained winds at 40 and gusts to 60mph. Full fledged blizzard.

    Here’s a webcam of I-80 in WY that I pulled up. That’s some dangerous travel conditions if anyone is out with near zero visibility on the open interstate.

    http://www.wyoroad.info/highway/webcameras/I80Remount/I80RemountAll.html

    1. In the moment that I posted the link of that webcam, it got even worse. Now cant even see the road from the camera on the pole on the side of the road. Whiteout!

  9. The models are looking somewhat healthier again this morning with respect to the coastal storm threat mid-late next week.

    12z GFS has a large ocean storm closer to the coast but still offshore:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019031312&fh=198

    12z CMC is closer and partially phases the ocean storm. Gets precip in here and is showing up as rain but 850 temps look cold enough to support snow….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019031312&fh=198

    00z Euro was closer with the coastal as well, as Dave posted. Need to wait till about 2:30PM to see what the 12z does with it.

    Not much cooking with any of the models now on the smaller storm threat earlier in the week.

  13. Plenty of time for that OTS solution shown by the 12z GFS CMC to shift to something closer. When the models show a big storm hitting a week away the majority of the time it doesn’t happen.

      1. I found some reports of wind damage but flights seem to be arriving and departing. They recorded a 78 mph wind. A nearby airport – Grand Prairie Municipal Airport – had small plans blown around. An 80 mph wind was reported near to it.

        1. Vicki, I was just about to post that. Just read that Grand Prairie airport gusted to 109 mph at the control tower. 37 small planes and 7 buildings experienced severe damage from the derecho.

          1. Wow, Mark. I didn’t see the 109. Just awful. Work is busy today and I haven’t had much time to check but I did not see reports of injuries. I hope that is correct.

    1. Is that Grand Prairie, Texas?? Saw that on signs while in Dallas/Ft. Worth
      a few years ago.

      Also, a neighbor of ours is from Grand Prairie.

    1. I was definitely in a snow hole for that one….only about 7-8″ at my house but it was a whopper for a lot of people in eastern MA.

  19. 12z Euro has lost the storm for mid-late next week. It’s still there….it just passes south of Bermuda!

    1. I was out and you beat me to it.

      I was going to say something funny (or at least what I thought was funny).
      No need now.

      Color me disappointed but not surprised.

      It now looks as though we “may” transition to calendar Spring with no
      additional frozen events. At this point, let’s just do that and put
      the snow behind us. 🙂

      1. We’re fair game up in this part of the world into the first week
        of April for big snowstorms, right to the big cities. Two more weeks of potential, even if the equinox event doesn’t pan out.

  20. A lot of people will misinterpret that record low pressure as this being the strongest cyclone to ever pass through that area. It is not. It is the strongest cyclone to pass OVER THAT STATION since they have been taking observations there.

  21. CPC today:

    Days 6-10: slightly cool (a cool start balanced by a warm finish), dry
    Days 8-14: warm, dry
    Weeks 3-4: warm, wet

    I feel as strongly as ever that we are heading for a very warm, maybe near record warm, spring. And yes, I think we’re done with widespread snow. Of course, I realize we’re still in a time of he year where it can and does snow. But this year, at this stage, if I were asked yes or no, will Boston see another 1″+ snow event this season, I’d answer no.

  22. Speaking of snow seasons and snow pack…

    You have seen me post about Lee Canyon in Nevada near Las Vegas. Now I want
    to show you just how close to downtown Las Vegas this ski resort is. Also, they have received 201 inches on the season. Not too shabby for its location:

    Geo Map and resort conditions, including snowfall. Lee Canyon Ski area is
    circled in red on the Geo Map and you can see downtown Las Vegas not far
    away to the right hand side of the map.

    https://imgur.com/a/mmmw1TY

  23. TK made a great point earlier: the pattern we’ve gotten into is fantastic news for areas up north. I personally have been quite concerned for months now about the spring flooding potential up there. Given the near record snowpack and persistent wet pattern, I’ve been fearing a major, rapid melt-down if we ever got into a warm stretch punctuated by a big rainstorm. Instead, thanks to the changes in the pattern, we’ve set the table for a very gradual melt over the coming weeks. Can’t completely let our guards down, but even the events of the next 3 days will considerably lower the risk premium for major flooding.

    1. Thanks! We will see how the pattern shakes out. I do agree with the warmer outlook after next week.

      1. Well , at least Logan ended this blah winter with a nice foot of snow. 🙂

        27.4” = I believe that is out of the top 25 as well. Just for the heck of it, I’ll do some research as to where exactly that stands and post it later. 🙂

          1. Right, and it being March 13, EVEN WITH the upcoming pattern and the outlook posted by WxW and comments by myself about the weather going forward, we still cannot rule out additional flakes to add to the total. I’m sure even WxW will agree with this. We know how fast something can “come out of nowhere”.

            1. Definitely! We’re not fully out of the woods for another month. I think the odds are against any big synoptically driven snows from here, but I’m sure there will be more flakes in the air at some point over the the next month.

  24. Thank you, TK.

    On a non-weather related note, it would be foolish to underestimate the potential impact of the grounding of the 737 MAX 8 and 9 on the U.S. economy moving forward. I certainly understand the decision. But, as an economist I can tell you that this may have major repercussions. Boeing’s outsized presence in the U.S. economy may further dent growth. Boeing is one of America’s biggest exporters. In fact, it may be the last of its kind, a company that manufactures virtually all of its products at factories in the U.S, employing 160,000 workers. The 737 MAX series aircraft were by far the biggest sales and export item for Boeing.

    1. You are correct that there will be repercussions and also that the grounding is understandable. The max 8 crashes were only just over four months apart and are far too similar. It’s an airliner in its infancy…maybe two years. Both of these planes were just months old. And I believe there are thousands of orders for them.

      As bad as this is, I think the repercussions would be far worse were another to go down. I was happy to see the president not wait for the FAA whose hand was forced in part because Canada announced no max 8 and 9s would be permitted its airspace. The reluctance of the FAA to me was inexcusable

      1. Completely agree with you. The FAA’s statement two days ago was irresponsible.

        I twice flew on a 737 MAX 3 months ago after the Lion Air crash. I was somewhat apprehensive. Prior to my two flights on a 737 MAX 8 I read about the Lion Air crash and something just didn’t seem right. It appears that in both the Ethiopian and Lion Air crashes pilots were unable to correct for an autopilot maneuver – a terrible glitch in the software – which tilted the nose downward. Both crash sights suggest the planes nosedived into the ground.

        There are indeed hundreds if not thousands on order.

        The other day I found this article from September 2018 on the Renton, WA factory that makes the 737 MAX jets. It’s disturbing that the workers in this factory were logging excessive hours, all to make sure that the orders were fulfilled and shareholders kept happy. Of course, this doesn’t mean that the problem lay with overworked workers. But, it does give pause.

        https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/737-problems-have-grown-in-renton-despite-boeings-reassurances/

        1. My sister in law was not a fan and that was unusual for her. Tonight is one of the nights I reached for the phone to call and realized she wouldn’t be there. Thank you for the link. I’m off to read it

Comments are closed.