Thursday Forecast

64 Comments

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 14-18)
Milder air arrives today although sun will be thwarted initially by some stubborn cloudiness due to a bit of an atmospheric inversion to star the day, but we will see some sun break out. Clouds return tonight and we probably won’t see much of any on Friday as a cold front approaches, eventually producing rain showers. It will also be the mildest day for most of the region, exception being the South Coast where wind will be coming straight off the very cool ocean water. Dry weather returns over the weekend, with a brisk breeze Saturday as it turns cooler, but more tranquil under arriving high pressure St. Patrick’s Day Sunday although a little colder still. Continuing to watch a small low pressure system that will make a run at the region Monday, producing at least some cloudiness. Its track will determine if enough moisture will get into the region for a little snow/mix, and the most likely region for this to happen as it stands now is to the south. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy start then partly sunny. Highs 45-52 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy start then mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 42-49 South Coast, 50-57 immediate East Coast and just inland from the South Coast, 58-65 interior from central MA to Merrimack Valley to southwestern and south central NH. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers likely. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of snow/mix favoring southern areas. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)
Although this period remains somewhat vulnerable to wintry weather as temperatures will be running on the colder side of normal and the passage of a couple low pressure troughs is likely, the configuration of these may keep the region safe from significant storminess. This is how it’s currently seen but that by no means leaves the region in the clear of threat. Will continue to monitor. It may just as easily stay mainly dry for the entire period which would be good news as it would minimize flood potential from melting snow entering rivers.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)
Storm system may threaten early in the period, with another threat possible late in the period as we enter a transitional pattern toward one more typical of springtime, and right on time too as we’ll be in the early days of it.

64 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  8. Water temps seem to be at the coldest for the season. Some of the buoys of the south coast stayed around forty all winter. Comparing past winters water temps running this winter possibly three to five degrees above normal. Maybe less back door fronts?

  9. Thanks, TK…
    Good morning, everyone!
    We were waking up to no school and 15.9″ of snow a year ago. North Shore hit the jackpot on this one with place getting more than 24″. Someone reported 28.3″ in Methuen. Our capital city of Woods Hill, USA had 21.0.”

    What is the ratio of the circumference to the diameter of a Jack O’Lantern???

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Monday the 18th….The GFS has that sneaky little system back.

    We shall see.

    1. The 18th of any month is a sneaky day. Let’s hope. And if not, I’m ready for warmer temps.

      March 18, 2012, and either side of it were unusually warm. Jaime and I had the oldest two grands playing with a water table outdoors while we waited for the second oldest to meet her new sister in the hospital.

    1. If it were hurricane season, I think that would put a damper on tropical development. 🙂

      Beautiful image!

  16. Here’s a couple awesome videos of the raging blizzard in Nebraska…

    Reed Timmer tweet:

    NEW Raging BLIZZARD south side of Kimball, NE! Most intense winter storm I have ever chased in the Plains @breakingweather @accuweather #newx #bombcyclone
    https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1105951453502410753

    Dave Malkoff tweet:
    ‏
    It feels like a hurricane… In the winter!
    We are with cattle ranchers in Scottsbluff, Nebraska

    https://twitter.com/malkoff/status/1105952447342800896

  17. What is the ratio of the circumference to the diameter of a Jack O’Lantern???

    Pumpkin Pi.

  19. @NWSDodgeCity

    …LOWEST ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE IN OVER 100 YEARS AT DODGE CITY…

    At 355 PM CDT, The Dodge City Airport had an atmopsheric pressure of 974.7mb (28.78 inches of mercury), exceeding the old 100+ year record of 974.9mb set in February 1960. #kswx

  23. GFS is close to something bigger with that system late next week. Any sort of phase with that northern steam energy coming out of the Great Lakes and that system gets pulled closer to the coast. I have a funny feeling about this storm and it’s still a long ways off…..

    The following week looks potentially interesting as well and could perhaps present some more wintry opportunities, presuming there is enough cold air to work with. GFS sometimes underestimates this.

    1. What’s your funny feeling?

      I’ve scheduled the 20th and 21st off. Hopefully no blockbuster storm swoops in on the radar and work gets called off and I’ve burned a day needlessly lol

        1. That’s not how the state works lol. If you scheduled the day off and a storm happens and work is called off for everyone that day they just say “no takebacksies” to you and charge you that day for whatever you put it in as lol

            1. I used to work for the federal gov’t and it’s the same also, assuming no changes since I left at the end of 2001.

            2. Mine was the same back in the day….I took care of it. But it wasn’t the state. Son works for state and it would be the same for him.

      2. Just have a feeling that this storm ends up closer to the coast and we have some type of impact. Wouldn’t likely be a blockbuster but the setup looks favorable even though the models aren’t translating anything at the surface. For now anyway….

  24. 12z ICON is not interested in phasing the energy later next week. It was the only model doing it anyway.

  25. First 70 degree day of the year here in southern NJ! It’s pretty spectacular outside. The temperatures were actually under-forecast by several degrees, not that anyone’s complaining. I say it every year at this time though: it is so easy for temperatures to over-perform this time of year under the right circumstances. I hope to quantify this more precisely, but the following has become a gospel rule of thumb for me. After March 1, if you are:

    *Pre-leaf out
    *With no snow cover
    *Not experiencing moderate or strong cold advection
    *Have a mixed boundary layer
    *Have 50%+ sunshine during peak heating

    Then your high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than a typical consensus blend (that’s a lot), and usually 2 to 4 degrees warmer than the warmest guidance. It’s a fairly stringent criteria, but invariably you’ll get several days each year that meet it. Today was one here.

  26. Nice working for a company that has unlimited time off, period. Use good judgment is the moto. More companies starting to look at these types of policies if you want to attract the best.

    2. That’s fairly typical for salaried employees. That’s what we ended up with before I moved my equipment home in 1980 to work from home

  27. Yeah but this is for all employees, salaried or hourly. You never submit any request or approval for time off. It’s the tech world, benefits have to be top notch to get the top talent. From what I know very few companies offer similar policy. But who know maybe I am wrong about that.

    2. I agree with TK that more are doing this.

      The company I worked for was ahead of its time. Did I mention I took my equipment….which was a room full of what you now know as a PC….home in 1980.

      1. Sorry. The new fangled tablet locked up.

        I think there is a ton of talent out there and to get the best you now need to offer the best. There are still many companies that haven’t moved to the 21st century.

        In the end…I doubt people take a whole lot more time than most offer or they’d be out the door. And I would also suspect they work the hours to get the job done

    2. I tracked some big time cyclones through that area in the 1990s. Madagascar was one of my crop forecast areas.

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