Sunday Forecast

72 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
High pressure will control the weather through Wednesday with dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions overall. A cold front will come through the region Thursday with some cloudiness but for now leaving the threat of any precipitation out of the forecast, which details as follows…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting up to 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
The energy that goes by to the north and brings the cold front through the day before will merge with offshore energy into an ocean storm which may throw additional cloudiness back into the region and otherwise create blustery and colder weather March 22 into March 23. This will probably delay the arrival of the next system so that March 24 is fair. Watch for a minor system with light precipitation late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
Overall pattern looks somewhat milder and mainly dry at this time as high pressure should be dominant, maybe making the “In like a lion, out like a lamb” folklore quite true this year.

72 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    I miss Barry. I hope he’s ok. Just before my father retired, he took a lot of time off that he didn’t used to. I hope that is not the case.

    Danielle and Kelly Ann (Ch. 5) actually have showers for Thursday.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Looking forward to SPRING whenever it really gets here. Some years it is rather slow and painful. We shall see this year.

  6. We’re being set up for one of those normal New England sudden jumps to 80F or higher.

    The sun is climbing FAST in altitude.

    Looks like a week or maybe 2 with the jet stream near or south of us. Likely to see many 40s, a few 50s, maybe some 30s for highs (see 00z EURO at 240 hrs)

    That brings us to the end of march or into early April.

    If you suddenly switch to an east coast ridge, with the sun angle 6 degrees higher than today, that strong sun will zoom us right through the 60s and 70s and to 80F plus.

    Then, of course, a back door front will bring us back to 38F 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. That reminds me of last April. I think the day after we left for NC on April break (mid April) featured one of the strongest backdoor fronts with incredibly chilly air in New England. I remember reading posts about brief light snow and sleet.

        1. Yes, one of a few upcoming shots of chilly air from Canada, thankfully modified by the strong sun.

        2. Hoping it doesn’t rain. Son and GF headed to north Adams area for hiking and fishing, etc. There is a lot of stuff to see indoors also though.

          Meanwhile what a beautiful morning we are having

  7. I always focus on the first 10 days of April. If no snow during that timeframe, then AFAIC we are done and can close the books on a final total snowfall.

    I consider April 28-29 1987 and May 9-10 1977 as flukes. Once in a hundred years events.

    I haven’t put away my shovel yet, but yesterday I did put away my rock salt/ice melt and pail for the season. 🙂

    1. Except that it happened twice in 10 years. 😉

      There really aren’t any once in 100, 500, 1000 year events. That’s time, which we invented. They are just events. We haven’t been observing them long enough to put such time stamps on them. This can be applied to a lot of things we think we know more about than we do. 😉

  8. Good morning and thanks TK.

    FV3 holds serve with a phased benchmark bomb for the late week system….

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019031706&fh=120

    Kuchera snowmap with 6-12”+ and a 16” bullseye over JJ.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019031706&fh=186&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_acc&m=gfs_fv3

    Yeah I know it’s the FV3 but even the regular GFS has trended earlier with the phase now as well and crushes the maritimes. It is still too late to give us any meaningful snow but you never know….this thing is still 5 days away.

    1. You said it – gfs-fv3. Might as well be a dream map made by frosty the snowman wanting to live a few more days into the year.

  10. Thanks TK!

    Boston may see under half an inch of precipitation over the next 10 days. Safe to say the promised dry spell has arrived! And it’s happening for exactly the right reasons. The first trough is coming through too quickly, too positively tilted, and with no moisture. That’s the one I figured actually had a better, albeit still slim, chance of producing a snow/mix event in the East. Mid to late week, that’s the period when a storm will develop well offshore as the mean longwave ridge and trough both set up too far east to bring anything close to the coast. And beyond then, the Southeast Ridge sets back up, which will help prolong the dry period and bring in some warmth. It’s a really tame pattern. As a forecaster, the biggest challenge in this pattern is trying to avoid making something out of nothing, because it goes against what’d you normally expect in what is typically one of our wettest times of the year. Not this year.

      1. Overall, warm is probably a good bet. The next 7-10 days, while mostly dry, will also feature near to below normal temperatures. Beyond then, we should start to see the emergence of the pattern that I expect to bring a very warm spring. However, we are definitely getting into the time of year that the sea breeze that you mentioned and the backdoor front threat that Tom mentioned become major players. The “big picture” pattern in early April will likely favor warmth, but the cold ocean can play havoc with that this time of year, especially near the coast.

  11. The 12z GFS made a big move towards the much more logical ECMWF solution for mid-late week. That storm develops far offshore, although the northern stream piece will likely bring some rain/snow showers Thursday.

    The FV3, well, I don’t know what to say anymore. I wish they’d stop making the output public, I can’t ever recall a situation where “parallel” output has been available so long. Recall, it was originally supposed to go operational in just a few days. Much as it looks bad on the developers of the model to have to push it back, I’d much rather have that than have them shoving it down our throats. Just imagine if the FV3 was now operational, flying the flag as the one and only GFS, and showing what the 0z/6z runs showed. Talk about a great way to drop forecaster confidence and introduce completely unnecessary uncertainty.

    1. If the tv mets used that FV3 model, ratings would be through the roof right now, if not most of this winter. 😉

  18. Quiz

    Thinks of a four letter word you hear in winter.

    Print it in all lowercase letters

    Turn it upside down for a word associated with it

    2. Hmmmm. Four letter word you hear in winter. What do I always hear in winter?

      cold.

      Turn it upside down? ploɔ

      Well that didn’t work. Let’s try some more:

      snow. ʍous.

      plow. ʍold.

      puᴉʍ ʍɐɥʇ ʇlǝɯ lᴉɐɥ ʇsnƃ ʇɐoɔ pǝls ɟɟnɯ ʇlɐs ɥɔuᴉ

      These are all the four letter words I heard all winter.

        1. And what has me laughing louder was I amused myself trying to turn my iPad upside down to read your words. And yes…I know I can lock the screen but what fun would that be?

        2. After much pondering and disagreement with the framing of the quiz – I am fairly certain the answer is wool or loom upside down.

  19. 12z EPS with not a lot of support for the late week storm but is very interesting for the threat early next week….

  20. Fine by me with no storm this week as I want to get up to Hartford for the NCAA Tournament Thursday and Saturday with no weather issues.

  21. Thanks Tk . The weather in both NJ & Philadelphia was perfect . Very nice area of NJ where we stayed & the concert was in Philadelphia 20 minutes from my wife’s cousins house .

    2. Didn’t realize you were in town SSK, glad you had a nice time. I was just in Philly yesterday. It’s a fun city. Obviously a lot of history and tradition, but with a distinctly young, modern streak.

      Where in NJ were you staying if you don’t mind me asking?

      1. Moores town and saw a concert in Philadelphia at Union transfer . Didn’t get to see much as it was a really quick trip

        1. Xway signs out there very confusing. And going over the GW bridge heading down baffled the hell out of me .

        2. Ah nice, I’m just one town over from there in Mt. Laurel. Yeah, GW Bridge is pretty insane. Not fun driving through NYC.

          1. First time . My wife’s cousins lives in NG & we last minute decided to take my son to this concert for early birthday present. If it wasn’t for the invite to NJ it would not have happened . I loved all the service area stops . Definitely going back to sightsee

  22. The previous mention of some ensemble members of a better-performing model having solutions near that FV3’s is not really a cause for concern. Applying a bit of meteorology and educated “guessing” to the situation yields this: Those members are revealing what is wrong with the FV3’s programming. Perhaps they should look at the tweaked initial conditions on the other model (if they can) that result in that solution in an effort to help them fix the problem. Oops! Bet they can’t. If it’s the ECMWF, they aren’t spillin’ the secret! 😉

    1. I can’t recall any spring snow event forecasted within a few days. They have always been surprises for the most part. The April Fool’s 1997 storm was no more than 24-36 hours iirc. No way for the general public to prepare with the typical break & milk purchases, etc. Even the city of Boston was unprepared as many side streets never got plowed as many residents had to take matter into their own hands with snowblowers not just for sidewalks but their actual streets. BPS were closed for the remainder of that week.

      Ditto for April 6-7, 1982…little time to prepare. May 9-10, 1977 as well.

      2. I don’t recall not having warning, Philip. We had enough warning to plan the night ahead to keep the kids out of school before it started. Daughters and friends horses were in holliston so I drove them there early morning to exercise the horses, etc. before the storm began. I remember standing in the opening of the barn door when the first flakes fell and asking the kids to pick up the pace so we could head home.

        I think the snow was heavy and lots were stuck in cars. Power was out all over for a few days …as I recall.

    2. Interesting Mark. Eric clearly irritated and what is a fantasy storm and why would we take advantage of if

      1. Its a bit ironic after that discourse seeing the 18z Euro take a big step towards the FV3. Other models and their ensembles have been on and off flirting with something bigger as well. The setup is there with a trough over the northeast and if the timing and placement of the northern and southern stream energy is just right, a stronger solution closer to the coast is not a complete fantasy. Yes it is not the most likely outcome but to complete discount it 4+ days out is not wise either.

    1. Responding to and over-amplifying an inverted trough. Even if those NW members were correct that would be a glancing blow with rain, not snow, and out of here quickly.

      That said, look for no real join-up and just a cold frontal passage Thursday with a secondary cold front sometime Friday.

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