Thursday Forecast

39 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)
So now it’s spring. And spring has a reputation around here. Yes, there can be nice days, but there are many not-so-nice days, and sometimes a whole lot of them, depending on the particular weather pattern. I’m not going to speculate about spring beyond the next 5 days right in this space right now, but what I will say is these 5 days will show you a nice sample platter of the variety of both March and spring in New England. It starts with an approaching cold front today but this front will never quite make it here, at least as it is. Since we have now figured out that the low pressure area about to come up the coast is not the one that some of the guidance was originally forecasting to do it, as that is traveling hundreds of miles southeast of the region at this time, but an inverted trough that formed near the Southeast Coast and hung around long enough for some upper level support to come along and ignite it. And while this won’t be a major storm system as it continues to develop and pass over the region tonight and Friday, once it gets beyond our region, it will develop into a pretty strong storm, expanding in coverage, so the slug of rain it brings to us tonight in its formative stages won’t be around long, but once it gets far enough away and we get into the expanding wind field on the back side, we will see colder air, some rain to snow showers, and more importantly some decent wind Friday night through Saturday. The bluster of March will be in full force on Saturday. But how quickly things can turn around, and they will, when that storm pulls far enough away and high pressure slides to the southwest of New England, a milder westerly air flow will arrive and Sunday will be a nice spring day, especially by March standards. But alas, did you think that was going to hang around? Well it may, into at least part of Monday, and that will depend on the speed of another cold front dropping south southeastward out of Canada, which will return much colder air to the region again by late Monday at the latest. Sometimes these fronts end up faster than initial guidance tries to have you believe, so the vague wording below will indicate my uncertainty here. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving south to north, may be heavy for a while. Slight risk of thunder. Lows 40-47. Wind E 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts along the coast where minor flooding is possible.
FRIDAY: Overcast with areas of fog morning as rain tapers to isolated rain showers and patchy drizzle. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a risk of a passing rain shower. Temperatures steady 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Scattered to general snow showers overnight with minor accumulation possible. Lows 30-37. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH then shifting to NW with gusts 30-40 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-45 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Risk of a period of rain that may end as snow. Highs 48-55 but a quick temperature drop is possible later. Wind W 10-20 MPH eventually shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)
More of the March and spring variety will be on display, especially in the temperature department. Low pressure should pass south of the region, kept there by a cold Canadian high pressure area to start the period, with temperatures starting out below to much below normal. This will be followed by a warming trend which may see the end of the period much warmer than normal with high pressure along the East Coast and a strong southwesterly air flow. It may be that some areas that are stuck in the 30s on March 26 are above 70 by March 30.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A transition back to cooler weather to end March and start April, probably with a couple bouts of unsettled weather as well.

39 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK. Isn’t it curious that when we arrive at the exact moment that the seasons change a switch is expected to be flipped to bring automatic weather that season is supposed to represent.

  4. Son is in North Adams this weekend. He said he heard 4-8 inches of snow in Williamsburg area Friday night. Is that accurate? Thank you all.

  7. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000×1000.gif

    I think its in the perfect storm book. There’s a meteorological passage in there that explains how an upper disturbance coming in from the Great Lakes caught the extra tropical system and further energized it. And the text described it as looking like the letter S.

    Well, I feel like I can see that with this system. You have the coastal system and can almost see the great lakes energy system in the shape of the letter S.

  8. Thanks tk.

    And thanks everyone once again for the birthday wishes yesterday. 🙂 I went to bitbar in salem and crushed the high score. The machine doesn’t retain high scores so you email in a picture of your high score or post on social media.

    Here’s a pic of the high score board and my score last night: https://i.imgur.com/qUAHp9f.jpg

    I could have gone much higher but I had already spent a while on the machine and didn’t want to hog it more than I had.

  9. I get the idea from the 12z models that the forward motion of this low looks to be slightly slower. It doesn’t look like the dry slot will be overhead by 7am now.

    A little different than most storms in this progressive pattern that have ended more quickly than projected.

  11. Minnesota 86, Louisville 76
    One game done and my bracket is already broken!

    Friends: How strong will the winds be tonight/tomrrow morning?
    Power outages, tree damage a strong possibility?

  12. I wouldn’t know a good basketball player from a giraffe, thus I stay away from
    the brackets.

    1. Looks like 3km NAM, not so much which is probably more real. Waiting for
      it to be more complete.

    1. That’s probably real. This set-up is pretty common in March. It’s usually very light snowfall, like snow drizzle.

    1. It would probably snow an inch in Boston if the ground wasn’t WAY above freezing. This forecast doesn’t surprise me at all.

    1. I used a limitation of the GP2 phone camera to my advantage, as it will make the moon bright enough to make it appear it’s a small spherical object on the near side of the tree, rather than being behind it. This made the illusion of the moon being a basketball easier to pull off.

  19. Just enough cold air aloft for a bit of mix/snow upstairs to reach the higher elevations. It’s fleeting and not related directly to the cold air that wraps in behind the storm later.

    New post!

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