Tuesday Forecast

27 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)
High pressure will be in control of the weather the next few days, with southern New England starting out on the cold side of it today, right under it Wednesday, and on the milder side of it by Thursday. A cold front will move into the region from the northwest Thursday night and run out of gas over the area early Friday before shifting back to the north later Friday, and as high pressure strengthens a bit more to the southeast versus a weaker one to the north, the warmer air should win out later Friday through Saturday, with ocean-modified areas being cooler based on wind direction, which coming from the south and southwest, would have greatest impact on the South Coast area.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Some cloudiness South Coast region early otherwise sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-50 coast, 50-55 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 except 55-62 interior valleys. Wind light S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of brief rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coastal areas, 56-63 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52 evening, may rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs ranging from 48-55 South Coast to 56-63 interior southern areas to 64-71 most other areas with a few warmer readings possible interior valleys. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
Watching the timing of a cold front from the west March 31, leaning toward a mild to warm day overall with rain showers holding off until later. Fair, much cooler April 1. Watch for a passing storm to produce rain/mix/snow sometime April 2 to early April 3, another system with mix/rain showers later April 3 to early April 4 as temperatures run mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)
We’ll be near a boundary, so neither the weather nor the temperature forecast can be made with high confidence at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of normal for temperatures with a couple precipitation threats.

27 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Regards Tom’s comment earlier about graupel….
    Well when I saw that about 6:30, I looked at a radar display and although
    I didn’t see anything near Marshfield on the loop, it did show a streamer coming
    on shore around Plymouth, so likely one came ashore earlier at Marshfield.

    1. It’s not the snow, it’s the customers (skiers) or lack thereof…..Unfortunately, that is the case for many areas in the Spring. People just have too many other interests come Spring. There are areas like Killington that stay open for the die hard skiers…..

    2. That is way early. Most areas at a minimum will start tapering back to weekend operations first and stay open until at least mid April if conditions permit.

      You can always depend on Jay Peak and Killington for skiing well into May.

  11. TK or WeatherWx. I know that you and WeatherWx have suggested that spring will feature temperatures above normal. We will see a taste of that this upcoming weekend before Winter reminds us that it won’t go away without a fight. In your estimation, when do you suppose the area could experience above normal temperatures on a more consistent basis? Is there a transition period that you are watching? I’m interested in feedback from either of you. Thanks!

    1. Not to speak for WxW but I don’t think either one of us expects consistent above normal temperatures. At least for myself I am thinking that we will always have cooler bouts of weather but that the majority of the days will be to the warmer side of average so that the overall result is mild to warm. In a way, since March 11, we’ve already been there, as my example Boston has run above the daily average on all by 3 days, including 7 straight days from March 19 through 25. Granted, many of these were just a few degrees milder than average, but they are still + in the departure column.

      1. It really takes until Memorial Day Weekend, if not early-mid June before we see serious consistent warmth around here. I would say that SNE is the last region in the U.S. to experience real bouts of late spring/early summer temps. I suppose our persistent spring coolness saves us from typical bouts of tornadoes most other areas receive.

  12. I like to come here and admit my wrongs….About a week ago I suspected that most of SNE would not get out of the 30s today.

    Well
    Boston 44
    Lawrence 42
    Worcester 40
    Springfield 44
    BDL 46
    PVD 46

    Despite the very cold, extremely dry air, the strong, abundant March Sun and the lack of snow cover defeated my 168 hour instincts and teaches me once again to not trust the ECMWF. As the principal ECMWF skeptic, I should have known better! Ha!!

    1. I was in the same camp even right up until. I figured some places would have dumped low enough this morning to struggle back to 39 or 40.

  13. I just applied to0 much early March thought to late March. Not much different than snow enthusiasts do with snow. I just happen to be a temperature swing dork…Also the cold bias on the ECMWF is as bad as the old NAM cold bias if not worse.

  14. Arod, I feel largely the same as TK, although I might be a little more bullish overall on the warmth. We are very much in what I’ve called the “stair step” transition phase right now, riding the roller coaster big time, though still coming out above normal overall. This will continue awhile longer, and there will be several cooler than normal days in the first week of April. But I think by mid-April, as the snow pack to the north erodes, we will be better positioned to take advantage of what is, has been, and should remain a very favorable upper level pattern for eastern and northeastern US warmth. Expansive, slow moving ridging, with a tendency for the ridge to quickly reload when it is occasionally broken. We’ve really seen that most of the past couple months already. It’s also the kind of pattern that, a few weeks from now, can allow for one or more early season runs of genuinely hot weather. I think we’ll see some of that in late April and early May.

    Of course, the usual spring caveats apply, and SNE is bound to see a few dreary and cool east wind days. But most days this spring will be above average.

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