Wednesday Forecast

37 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)
A chilly start, a warm-up, and a quick chill-down during these final 5 days of March. High pressure controls the weather to start this period, being overhead today which starts cold but feels reasonably comfortable by later morning on with strong late March sun and light wind. As high pressure slips to the south, a warm-up begins Thursday and nearly gets thwarted Friday as a cold front moves into the region, but this front does not have a lot of push with it and will basically run out of gas and then be pushed back to the north later Friday. The maximum part of the warm-up will be Saturday when we’re in the strongest southwesterly flow, but this wind will keep the South Coast cool as the air will be coming right off the chilly ocean. The timing of a cold front approaching from the west is key for Sunday’s weather and temperature, with guidance ranging from early day to late day on the front’s timing. Been leaning later the last few days and will continue to do this for now.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-50 coast, 50-55 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 except 55-62 interior valleys. Wind light S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of brief rain showers. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55 coastal areas, 56-63 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 45-52 evening, may rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs ranging from 48-55 South Coast to 56-63 interior southern areas to 64-71 most other areas with a few warmer readings possible interior valleys. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 most other areas but 64-71 possible some interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)
A much cooler start to April. The wildcard is whether or not there will be any storminess or it will be largely dry. Need to watch a wave of low pressure to the south that may evolve into an ocean storm south to southeast of the region. Whether or not it gets close enough to bring rain and possibly mix/snow remains to be seen. If that system is far enough offshore, we may warm up right at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)
We’ll be near a boundary, so neither the weather nor the temperature forecast can be made with high confidence at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of normal for temperatures with a couple precipitation threats. Even though the upper air pattern looks warmer, the surface pattern says “eh, not so much” with wind from cooler north and east more often than milder south and west.

37 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  7. Thanks TK. Great to hear the birds singing this morning. And distant motorcycles, a sure sound of better weather.

    1. The 00z GFS run was colder and delivered 6-12” of snow (Kuchera) for much of SNE middle of next week. Even gave Boston about 5-6”. So yes, definitely bears watching!

      1. Just looked at that. Wow! that would be something.
        Wonder how the thermal profiles go so warm, so fast???

  10. Here is a pretty awesome satellite image the NWS posted yesterday during completely clear skies across the Northeast and southern Quebec. Clearly shows the expanse of the current snowpack across the region….

    https://twitter.com/nwsboston/status/1110605253920112640?s=21

    What stands out to me is that pretty much 100% of Canada north of us is covered in deep snowpack and this is going to take some time to erode away. Thus I’m skeptical that we will see any sustained warmth for awhile with that refrigerator and a boundary nearby. We’ll have our mild days here and there like end of this week but I’d be surprised if we break into sustained 70+ weather anytime soon. In other words, typical April weather in New England.

  13. 12z Euro has the storm next week off the Carolina coast but it basically just shows it stalling out and falling apart over the ocean. Never makes it up here.

    1. Yup, I was just about to post that.

      I think we “may” be in the clear of snow, BUT it being New England, we can’t
      let our guard down.

    2. Is this hail from a thunderstorm or snow ??

      Only precip in US is way out west ….

      Portland, OR or San Francisco ??

      1. Or in FL in general. Man I work with and his wife are in FL (west coast) on vacation and he said the driving rain was wild there today.

  16. You guys were on the right track!

    That photo was taken on Interstate 95 in Ormond Beach, Florida.

    Looks like snow on the side of the highway. Lots of big time hail reports from the storms in Florida today.

    1. Figured it was FL. For once I has something correct…although not specific area but state and for me that is enough 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Given the time of year, I should have considered hail as well as snow. It’s amazing how hail and snow looks so much alike.

  18. The percent of sunshine for March must be well above average.

    Given all that strong sun blazing away, its helped to somewhat counteract all the chilly air sitting above us a majority of the time and in my opinion, sneakily hide, what has been a cold March.

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