Saturday Forecast

48 Comments

9:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
The final weekend of March is a lesson in putting too much stock into forecasts several days in advance. Some of them would have had you believe it was a lock beach-style weekend. Even my own forecast hinted at 70+. I put caveats in, maybe not strongly enough. As the days went on we were looking at 2 “usual suspects” that appear this time of year, one being a frontal boundary from the north and the other being the ocean’s influence. Both come into play in at least delaying some warmth and modifying some temperatures. The second of the two was never in doubt. The first, in doubt initially, was something fine-tuned through the week. And the running forecast the last couple of days heading toward this weekend depicted a scenario that will be reasonably close to what happens. The third wildcard regarding the weekend was the timing of a cold front from the west on Sunday. Later timing, warmer with later showers. Earlier timing, a wetter day and turning much cooler. It turns out the answer is really somewhere in between those. It’ll start out mild, showers won’t rush in, but they will arrive later, and we will see a temperature drop-off before the day is over from west to east. So you see, sometimes weather forecasting is pretty simple, like forecasting a sunny day with light wind and a sea breeze the other day with high pressure atop the region, and sometimes it’s nothing like that, with many players to take into account. Once we get beyond this, the first 3 days of April will showcase the forecast contrast yet again, with an easy chilly/dry Monday forecast then a more complex and uncertain outlook for later Tuesday and Wednesday as we monitor the evolution of an offshore storm that likely gets close enough to at least put its cloud shield over the area, and may be close enough to at least graze the region with its precipitation shield as well, and that precipitation shield may be occurring with air cold enough to support something other than just rain. So it’ll be time to get the fine-tuning knobs ready once again. Spring in New England!
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy, gradually becoming partly cloudy from south to north. Highs 54-71, coolest South Coast, warmest interior valleys, but warmest readings not being reached in northern areas until late day. Wind light E gradually shifting to S and SW increasing to 5-15 MPH from south to north.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers crossing the region west to east during the afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 most other areas but 64-71 possible some interior areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W late in the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers possible eastern areas early, then clearing. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. Highs 40-47. Wind light N to E.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible favoring southern and eastern areas. Lows 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)
Current expected timing of systems would bring an upper disturbance across the region with some cloudiness April 4, a small area of high pressure with fair and milder weather April 5, a low pressure area with unsettled weather April 6, improving and milder weather April 7, and a front from the north with a chill-down April 8.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)
Expecting some up and down temperatures with fair weather to start and end the period and some unsettled weather in between.

48 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  4. The east wind isn’t that strong and there is a lack of low level moisture which is making the impact a little less. Pretty fortunate for this to happen this way while still in March. That said, we still have to get the boundary back to the north for the warm sector to get into the entire region.

    1. I think we’ll have unsettled weather that day but at the moment with a bit more of a split flow set-up the Euro is probably over-amplifying that system.

      1. Thanks, Kind have been doing that all season with the split flow.
        Will keep an eye on it, just the same.

    1. Nice, but only partly sunny here and one would think clear from that shot.
      Still very nice here. NOT gloomy at all. 🙂

      1. Sometimes being north of the boundary isn’t all that bad. You’d have seen much stronger sky wording as in “overcast” versus “mostly cloudy / partly sunny” had we been dealing with a stronger easterly flow & LLM. But this is “cool-sector lite”. 😉

      1. Makes sense. Surrounded by ocean water. I actually love Logan for that reason. It’s a great local laboratory for location weather variation.

          2. Oh I agree with that. 75% of the time it’s not accurately representative of the conditions in the remainder of the city.

    1. Well, he did say: “and that precipitation shield may be occurring with air cold enough to support something other than just rain”

      Gotta get it close enough first.

    2. I won’t know that until I know if the shield gets here, and if it gets here how heavy it is, and then the temperature profile at the time. But if you want to get very hypothetical 3+ days out, I suppose it is a possibility.

  11. Thank you, TK

    64 very comfortable degrees in south Sutton. Betting when I head to the center shortly it’ll be 60 maybe 61

  14. Well I’ll be darned. I was wrong and should have known I would be.

    Temp is up the 3 degrees. Makes sense. 67 and in Sutton center

  18. We just went up a few degrees here suddenly. I am hopeful
    Accurite (in the sun with a fan) is reading 63
    Oregon Scientific in the shade out back is reading 59 (has a history of being a little low)
    I’d say real temp here is 60 or 61. Beats the crap out of Logan’s now 52. 🙂

    Waiting on Euro. Has quite a system for early in the week. It is off shore, but 500mb flow is aimed at us. Do not know 200 or 300 mb flow above it. Suspect it will stay
    off shore, but not by much.

  19. Out in W. Roxbury (still in the city of Boston) car thermometer is reading 67.
    Logan Blows chunks!!!!!!

  20. I wish I was with all you warm weather people today. But, we have lived here a week and we saw our first Eagle today. Flew very close to our living room windows. So cool.

  25. We’ve had a fairly serious forest fire break out here in NJ today. It’s been dubbed the “Spring Hill Fire.” 1,000+ acres burned so far in the “Pinelands” region of the state, a very large (and mostly uninhabited) area of pine forest. I live about 30 miles from where it started. Unfortunately, thousands more acres may burn before it is contained, but luckily it does not pose a property threat right now. Today wasn’t a classic fire weather setup (RH too high), but because of the steady wind, recent dryness, and the location where it started, it has spread quickly.

Comments are closed.