Monday Forecast

137 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)
March came in like a lion, and according to the old weather proverb should have exited like a lamb. Almost did. The weekend was certainly mild enough for a good portion of it to put one in the lamb frame of mind, but the rain and flip to colder air before it ended might have made you think more zebra. Well, whatever you call it, March is over, and now it’s onto April. I’ll spare you any April Fools Day jokes today and let those more qualified to fib handle that. Here it’s just time to get to the weather outlook, and that’s the absolute truth. High pressure approaches today, with us on the chilly side of it with a gusty northwest wind, making the day feel more late winter-like. High pressure moves across the region tonight then to the east of the region Tuesday while low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast intensifies and moves north northeastward. This large ocean storm would be a significant impact if its track was going to be a little further north and west, but it will be more of a side swipe with some rain/snow in the early hours of Wednesday before it scoots away to sea. Behind it will come a chilly north to northwest air flow later Wednesday through Thursday. An upper disturbance may kick off some cloudiness on Thursday. By Friday, an approaching low pressure area from the Ohio Valley will spread more cloudiness and eventual wet weather into the region, mainly rain, that may start as a mix or snow for some locations with just enough cold air lingering at the start. When we get to the end of the first 5 days of the month you’ll remember them as being on the cold and somewhat unsettled side, despite being dry the majority of the time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. Highs 40-47. Wind light NE shifting to SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible favoring southern and eastern areas late night. Lows 30-37. Wind E 10-20 MPH and gusty shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring Cape Cod early, then clearing. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Sun then clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind light N to NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops but may start as snow/mix in some areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)
Low pressure departs April 6 which starts gloomy and ends brighter, but cool. Fair, milder inland and cool coast April 7-8, then a warm-up April 9 before unsettled and cooler weather arrives to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)
Unsettled and cool start to the period, then fair weather returns with a gradual warm-up toward near normal temperatures.

137 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. It appears Maine will be getting good snows on Wednesday by the time the storm reaches there. We will have to rely on dynamic cooling at night for any snow here in SNE.

    The Red Sox left their best pitching on the mound at Dodger Stadium last November and hasn’t been seen since. The Celtics continue to stink. We’re #5! 😉

    1. Re: Dynamic cooling….
      It will have to pass close enough to have more intense precipitation.
      850MB temps are good and even 925MB are marginal. If it were to come
      down hard enough, it “could” snow. If the precip remains light, just rain.

      Euro and NAM bring it the closest. The rest, not so much.

      We shall see.

    2. re: Red Sox pitching

      Funny comment, and if we were deeper into the season I would agree.
      Very frustrating, but it simply looks to me that our pitching isn’t quite
      ready. It is like the pitching staff is still at Spring training.

      They “should” come around nicely. Should this continue over several more starts each, then I will begin to worry. Not time to panic yet.

      1. It is never too early for Boston fans to panic. It’s what we do best as fans. 😉

        They will turn it around but this is why I don’t like them starting the season on the West Coast.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Continue to watch that system for Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday AM.
    Much model divergence. Getting well into the NAM sweat spot and so far the NAM
    is the most robust with qpf with the Euro next in line.

    Waiting on 12Z runs.

  7. Thanks, TK…

    Elevated fire risk up for the region through 6 pm.

    April Fool’s Day…15″ of snow in 1997.

    JPD…Did you see the Stones videos I posted, particularly for you????

    Enjoy the Monday!

    1. Capt. I hadn’t seen those. Just checked them out.
      Hadn’t seen the 2nd 2. but I think I remember seeing the first one once but had forgotten about it.

      The second 2 remind me of the stones more blues beginnings, while the 1st one is just a classic. Did you notice John Lennon bouncing around in the back ground? Lennon was the true rocker in the Beatles as I always considered the Beatles as pop and not rock for the most part.

      My friends could never understand why I liked the Stones more than the Beatles, but hey, that’s how I roll.

      I actually saw the Stones live in concert at the old Boston Garden in 1965!!
      What a show that was!!

      Stones rule!!!

      Thanks for those gems Capt.

      Happy Monday.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    22 years ago was fun. Hardly slept that night, watching the intense snow accumulate, along with thunder and lightning. That was the most impressive storm in my lifetime. And, having gone well past my half way point I don’t think I’ll see another storm like it, at least not in early spring.

    Celtics are a joke, quite frankly. Underachieving is an understatement. What you see on the court is not a functional team in my view.

    Bruins concern me more than the Red Sox. I hope the B’s didn’t peak too soon.

    I will say that the Mariners are probably going to be better than people predicted they would be. They have a decent line-up. In a weak West division, they could compete. I like their manager, and there are some very good young players on that team.

    1. What I remember from the April Fools Blizzard is the large, green highway signs on Routes 95 and 495 snapped at their poles and blown over. I don’t remember seeing that during any other winter storms around here.

    3. Joshua…I don’t recall thunder & lightning but I’m certainly not surprised given the intensity. I believe I went to bed early as I wasn’t sure if I had to go to work the next day. Next morning the call came and work was cancelled.

      Worcester received 33 inches.

      Yesterday I put away my shovel for the season, a “spur of the moment” decision.

  13. JPD:
    Did you see that the 2019 No Filter Rolling Stones tour had to be postponed because of Mick’s undisclosed illness?
    At their age, maybe The Stones have some stones??? 🙂

    1. I did. My Wife and I were trying to figure out what the undisclosed illness was??? They said he would have a complete recovery….hmmm

  15. Work on the FV3 is progressing…..

    Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher

    Nice little email in my inbox about the FV3. Developers have addressed the low-level cold bias and results have been promising thus far. Still producing some cold bias but on the right track before full operational release later this year. Rooting for it.

    Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 15h15 hours ago

    This was the main issue all winter. And although we knew it, how many were still posting FV3 snowfall maps? I’ll never understand it

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1112526234628562946

  16. Well, they did it….

    2-4″ of snow overnight at Jay Peak brings their seasonal total over 400″. Natural snow base depths on the mountain on April 1 of up to 54″.

    Seasonal snow to date….

    Jay Peak, VT 402″
    Breckenridge, CO 374″
    Vail, CO 313″
    Beaver Creek, CO 300″

  18. Hmmm, perhaps another Tolland County special if we can get the heavier precip that far west 🙂

    The air above is definitely cold enough but we are still going to need a closer track to get the heavier precip in here and provide some dynamic cooling down to the surface.

    1. Yup, the intensity is the key. BUT, it is beginning to look very interesting.
      Probably won’t happen, but a far cry from all of the OTS scenarios previously. 🙂

    1. Indeed. I don’t think we can write it off and say categorically no snow.
      Still iffy, but it is possible and in the Spring, we can get this to happen.

    2. Sorry, broken link….need to copy and paste the whole link into your web browser.

      Not sure why but this happens sometimes when I copy links posted in the American Wx forum.

    1. And this is a model that had it the most off shore previously. Something is up
      for certain.

  25. There is a fair chance that a period of moderate to heavy snow will come toward the end of the Wednesday morning system. It would probably accumulate on grassy surfaces and car tops.

  27. We are fortunate to be headed to the Outer Banks in North Carolina during April Break.

    I am torturing myself weather-wise by looking at the long range part of the GFS to get an initial big picture idea of the weather.

    Yesterday, it looked very warm. Today, it looks like a wedge of cool, high pressure with NE winds off of the Labrador current which almost sneaks down to Cape Hatteras. Its been switching back and forth between runs since the 14 to 16 day period starting to reach into the first few days of the April school break.

    1. Hanging on a 15 day GFS forecast in April is an exercise in futility but I know you know that 🙂

      I think you’ll be fine. CPC and the long range guidance says above normal temps by then, especially down there. Now if you were going to Nantucket, I’d be much more skeptical….

      1. I could see that as the heaviest band may be down there resulting in the best dynamic cooling.

  31. If this was December through March I would feel bad missing out on snow but since its April I don’t feel so bad.

  32. How long have I been mentioning the disturbance with cloudiness for April 4? I’m too lazy to look.

  33. 12Z euro has 1.10 inch of qpf for Boston.
    How much will be in the form of snow, if any? I’d wager I see some snow at my house, even if not at Logan. We shall see.

  34. Hmmm 18Z Nam has it much closer to the coast than the 12Z run as of 30 hours compared to 36 hours on the 12z.

    This is getting interestinger and interestinger. 🙂

      1. Ok, it’s definite. NAM has it passing closer with MORE QPF.
        Will compare 12Z with 18Z shortly.

        I am getting worried about an all out snow storm for Boston Points West & North where it precipitates enough.

        1. .71 inch for Boston vs .45 inch from the 12Z run.
          18Z run has .6 inch all the way out to Worcester.

          2. My wife won’t believe me until she hears Eric
            say it. Wonder what Eric will deliver tonight?

  36. And look what’s showing to mod month -NAO about to crush some souls looking for warmer weather.

    1. I noticed that and was going to post it earlier. Euro EPS has the NAO crashing mid April. Where was this a month or two ago!?

  40. From Eric Fisher
    Ensembles now developing a hideous -NAO mid-month. That would chuck a mild April down the tubes. Good times.

  41. You’re definitely on the cusp of seeing a period of heavy accumulating wet snow predawn Wednesday in parts of SNE. You really have to thread a needle to make it happen, but it’s close. To maximize the potential, I think you’d need the current consensus timing to hold (heaviest precip before the daylight hours), and about a 25 mile shift northwest. That’s certainly possible. This has been a fun storm to track. Dynamically, it’s quite impressive.

  42. The trend to put an upside down pattern in place around April 10 is getting stronger. Lots of high pressure in Canada and southward-displaced lows with a tendency for some cutting off screams typical April delayed warm-up to me. Seeing this popping up elsewhere on the net today as well. I’ll just put one foot on the bandwagon for now because we’ve seen shifts happen in guidance only to see it shift back, so we’ll re-evaluate.

      1. I’ve been a little leery of being too sold on the warm-up. I keep seeing little things that thwart it. Once upon a model run, today was depicted as a warm day. It’s not. In fact, the Euro model had us at 10 degrees warmer than normal today on its forecast one week ago. 😉

  44. I have been cautious to jump on the bandwagon for April warmth as well. I posted on this last week and also linked the snow maps showing the deep snowpack that remains across much of NNE, Quebec, and the Maritimes to our north. Not to mention the cold ocean to our east and south. You get a little negative NAO and that’s the vehicle to nose that cool air down here. We’ve seen these modeled long range warmups in New England in April go down the tubes all too often. I’m sure a sizable portion of the country will still warm up more consistently by the second half of April but we probably have to wait a bit longer than that in New England.

    1. I’m assuming this is a joke question. It’s happened far more times than we can count.

    2. I had 6 different snow/sleet events at my house last April (2018). 4/2, 4/6, 4/10, 4/15, 4/17, and 4/19

    1. I feel it’s reasonable at this point, but I would include pretty much everybody except the outer cape in the <1 instead of 0.

    2. Their high end map is the same as their expected map and the low end map is 0″ everywhere. They also have a 0% chance of 4″+ of snow everywhere in SNE. To me this storm has a bit more potential than that but we’ll see…..

      1. I’m a little worried about this and frankly I am slightly worried about what may happen Friday. Not in terms of a “big” snowstorm but just a little more than some may expect.

  47. I think the mid-month period is pretty uncertain given some big swings in the guidance there recently, but late in the weekend and early next week, another very respectable warm-up looks likely. If the NAO does plunge negative beyond then, we could see more cool/unsettled weather.

    2. 12z Euro looked pretty mild for a couple days early next week…more centered around 4/8 and 4/9.

  49. TK – The above was not a joke question in the least. I was not in any way being a wiseguy or anything. It’s just that over the years I don’t recall multiple snow events during any given April unlike the typical winter months including March.

    If you say so, I will certainly take your word for it. That’s why I asked in the first place. Thanks! 🙂

    1. I was sorta joking about the joke, but yes we have had snow in April multiple times on quite a few occasions. They haven’t always been significant events, but we have had “snowy” Aprils by April standards several times. The large events are anomalous and infrequent, like 4-6-1982, 4-28/29-1987, 4-1-1997. 1996 was a bit of a greater anomaly as we had a significant number of measurable events.

    1. I know someone who mentioned this timeframe a while ago….hint, he would like a burger for dinner. 😉

  53. Of course -NAO for mid-month …..

    A few more years and I’m moving to the tropics 🙂 🙂 🙂

  54. Mark, I recall your earlier comments from last week about the deep snow pack to our north being a potential factor in keeping April warmth at bay. Good call. The negative NAO (I wish this would have happened earlier this winter, but now it’s happening in New England’s perennial extension of winter called spring) will only exacerbate the cool down.

  56. Philip, on April 1, 1997 I got up at around 1:30m and didn’t sleep a wink after that. I was mesmerized by the snowfall. It was like a cartoon; as you could see it accumulate before your eyes. The thunder that I heard was loud and directly above us (we lived in Brookline at the time) and the lightning was a flash of light in the cloudy and snowy skies. Amazing. Surreal. The wind wasn’t nearly as intense as February 6, 1978, but it was still blowing pretty hard.

    You talked about putting away your shovel the other day. The day I put away my shovel – usually late April – is always a bit sad. I realize at that point that there’s no real hope for snow for another 7 months. I’ve considered not putting away my old and faithful shovel so I can just see it every day.

    1. It may turn out that I put it away prematurely and violated my 10-day April snow rule. We will see. 😉

    1. 00z HRRR FWIW similar to the NAM. Precip shield does not penetrate very far inland. Heavier amounts confined to the Cape.

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