Tuesday Forecast

101 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)
High pressure retreats to the east today but the day itself will be nice after a cold start. Low pressure will intensify off the Mid Atlantic Coast later today and track north northeastward, passing southeast of New England Wednesday. Its closest pass during the first half of Wednesday will put its precipitation shield over southeastern New England, as mainly rain, but can still get a mix with or flip to snow toward the end if it is heavy enough. This remains possible pretty much anywhere except Cape Cod, despite a short range model shift slightly eastward with lighter precipitation. These models do not always pick up banding features that can result in enhanced precipitation, so I’m not going to blindly model-follow and just wipe the chance off the board. Either way, it’s all gone midday Wednesday and clearing quickly follows for an afternoon much different than the morning was. A cooler shot of air arrives Thursday along with an upper level disturbance that will bring some cloudiness to the region. After that, low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley Friday, and wet weather is expected by Friday night (this may start as snow in some areas) lingering into at least part of Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind light NE shifting to SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving south to north, may mix with or change to snow starting with higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH then work eastward toward dawn. Lows 30-37. Wind E 10-20 MPH shifting to N, gusts above 20 MPH interior, above 30 MPH coast, and possibly above 40 MPH Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow except just rain Cape Cod, accumulations of a coating to 1 1/2 inch possible if it is heavy enough, otherwise little or no accumulation, ending as rain by late morning west to east. Clearing afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Sun then clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind light N to NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops afternoon but may start as snow/mix in some areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with any snow/mix going to rain, then rain tapering to drizzle with patchy fog overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy/fog/drizzle and a chance of rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)
Warm front approaches April 7 and after that it’s a little uncertain whether or not we get into the warm sector sometime April 8 and/or April 9 before we’re back on the cooler side of the boundary. Unsettled weather is possible any time during this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)
This period may start and end cool and somewhat unsettled with a chance of a fair, milder interlude between. Low confidence forecast.

101 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK!
    The higher sun angle is making the ambient air temp more tolerable when your standing directly in the sunlight. Otherwise it’s still pretty damn chilly. Anxiously waiting for some sustained warmth to come our way!

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I cannot believe what a glorious, wonderful,absolutely BEAUTIFUL day today is.
    It felt like beach weather to me walking from the parking lot to my building.
    I mean FANTASTIC!!!!

    LOVE IT!!

  8. 0Z Euro backed off in a BIG way. Qpf for Boston 0.49 inch down from 1.10 inch
    from yesterday’s 12Z run. That is a HUGE change. Too bad and oh well. Bring on Spring!!!

    Waiting on those 12z runs for any last minute changes.

    I can already see the first wispy cirrus clouds from the developing system to our
    South.

  11. Latest SREF has a mean qpf of 0.82 inch for Boston.

    Mean 0.57 inch of snow with a high member of 3.12 inches and low member of 0.00 inch.

  16. Here is what this storm produced in Charlotte, NC. Something they have not had in April in 37 years. Tweet from Brad Panovich.
    #Charlotte officially got 0.1″ so far which is the 1st measurable snowfall in April since 1982. 37 years ago!

      1. Seems fairly common for Denver – and they say if you don’t like the weather in New England wait a minute

    2. Call me Debbie ….

      Its going to have to precipitate continually heavy to snow.

      Any intensity drop from heavy and its rain.

      Slight SE trend today in track, makes me think heaviest precip stays over Cape and Nantucket.

  21. Boy, did the warmth on today’s CPC 8-14 day outlook get squashed south !!

    Arghhhhhh !!!!!!!

  22. A couple notes…
    The difference hour to hour on RAP shows you how marginal the situation is.
    HRRR has the right idea, IMO. I currently feel good about my general coating to 2 inch forecast and will try to pinpoint later.
    More confident on a delay getting to the warmer pattern, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have any warm days. It’s spring. It can go any way. We’re in the most volatile season and definitely the most volatile month (April is more volatile than March without question).

  25. Tom, we will need intensity, absolutely. This will need dynamic cooling in order to snow to the surface. Without it, forget it.

    1. Thanks TK !

      It’s also why I somewhat disagree with where the NWS has its snow area and winter wx advisory. While it is elevated, I just don’t know if even moderate precip makes it that far west. We’ll see …..

      1. That part is a tough call. There may be a banding feature that gets out there.

    1. All generally good. Minor event. Very low impact, almost no impact. However, some people will still see flakes where it snows and freak out. 😉

  27. CPC did indeed trim back their warmth on the 6-10 & especially 8-14 putting this area in below normal temps. They also cut way back on the warmth that was previously indicated on their 3-4 week “experimental” outlook. Not sure how long that outlook needs to be termed experimental. It’s an outlook. Just label it as such. They also updated their one-month (April) outlook, and while still on the mild side, not nearly as prominent as on the one issued back on March 21.

    I pretty much agree with these assessments.

  29. Cloud tops past 40,000 feet off the Carolinas right now. This is no ordinary coastal storm. What a monster!

    2. Looks like a compact little thing out there on radar. But then what do I know. But out of curiosity WxW, does compact tend to make a system stronger?

      1. Hi Vicki! That’s an interesting question, and not one with a clear answer. From my experience, the correlation between storm size and intensity changes is more pronounced in tropical systems as opposed to extratropical ones like this. In tropical cases, small, compact storms tend to be more prone to rapid intensification (and rapid weakening), while larger storms usually take longer to spin up and spin down. But I would say that in most cases, tropical or otherwise, having a compact convective core like we’re seeing tonight is a positive for intensification.

        1. Thank you, WxW. As always your views are greatly appreciated.

          On another note, are you settled in and enjoying your new position?

          1. The job is going really well. It’s a great group of people here and I’m getting to do a lot more in terms of forecasting and decision suppprt than I expected to at this stage, which has been a pleasant surprise. The area is nice also, not all that different than what I grew up with in SNE. Very suburban. So all in all I’m definitely happy with how it’s all working out. Thanks for asking!

            2. That just makes me smile ear to ear. I’m not surprised one bit you are doing more than you expected. It is easy to see your expertise.

              I’m happy you are still here too

            3. Seems like they may already realize they have a pretty awesome meteorologist on their team.

    1. Basically anybody other than Cape Cod could, in theory, get a couple inches, as it’s my top range. That doesn’t mean every place will. Most places will not.

  31. Latest RAP and HRRR have trimmed back the qpf to “about” 1/3 inch.
    NAMS were quite robust. Which ones are we to believe.
    Oh, fwiw, the GFS has 0.19 inch qpf for Boston. I don’t trust it.

    qpf probably will end up somewhere between rap/hrr and the NAMS, but we shall see.
    I suppose it is all on the table.

    I told the Mrs. at dinner that IF I had to make a forecast, it would be a coating to 2 inches. Only way to bust that, is NO snow at all, which is certainly possible.

    What I find interesting is that NO models even a few days ago, were calling for any snow at all. We all looked at the thermal profiles and said…hmmm I think it can
    snow.

    Dying to see IF it snows here or not. IF the intensity is there, Yes. If not, No way.

    And for another FWIW, looking at current radars, the center is quite away off shore which usually doesn’t bode well for a major impact here. 500 and 300MB maps look
    outstanding, however, the 200 mb flow is much less amplified, thus a more NE
    movement rather than a NNE movement we would need from its current position.

    Just my take… will continue to monitor when I can. Will be heading out soon.
    May get a peek here and there via mobile.

      1. I suspect reality lays somewhere in between which make the snow call almost impossible to make.

      2. We are not in the sweet spot range for the GFS right now. It’s probably not deepening the storm rapidly enough nor does it ever seem to do well with these type of dynamic cooling events. I would lean towards the short range guidance.

  33. LOL at the 18z GFS run!

    Days and days of rain and wet snow for New England thru mid April……

    1. Check out this surface map for the 18z GFS on Monday evening in the middle of a long duration ice and snow event for central and NNE. Chilly rains for us.

      Meanwhile the Euro has Monday sunny and in the low 70’s!

      ?????

  36. C-2 is a good forecast, even now, because a temperature difference of literally 1 degree and slight difference in precipitation intensity will make the difference between pretty much nothing and 2 inches over a fairly significant area.

  38. Furthering my comments above on that 18z GFS run for next week, I just checked the 2m temperatures and chuckled. It keeps us in the 30’s from late Monday PM right thru Saturday AM 4/13. Perhaps only briefly cracking 40 on a couple occasions at its warmest. Basically 5 straight days of cold along with constant waves of rain and wet snow and more significant icing and snow up north. It does not get any more brutal than that if it were to verify (fortunately it probably wont).

      1. IDk. I’d love a big storm to end the season. But what mark described sounds destructive

        Not that we have any say one way or the other

  39. Mark, however much I like winter I hate cold rain and 30s and 40s. Utter misery in my book. Let’s hope the Euro verifies.

  42. The snow is so deep in northern VT that they were skiing off the summit of Mansfield (this shot was taken last week)….

    https://i.imgur.com/UlwrkoP.jpg

    Normally this is a garden of rocks/exposed cliff but has more of the appearance of a western bowl in this shot.

  45. JPD …breaking news….in an NCIS commercial Eric said rain, wind and even some chance for snow

    It’s official.

    1. Still pretty iffy. Still could go either way. Waiting on those NAMS. 🙂

      We’re home now, going to watch the Village.

      0Z HRRR has about 0.49 inch for boston. Not showing much snow at all with
      most in SE MA of all places, but closer to the heavier precip.

  46. It is a peaceful night…the calm before maybe??

    I sat out for a while. Air is still. Even the planes are muffled by the clouds.

  47. Mark, thanks for sharing the photos of Northern Maine and Quebec. Gosh, they will have (and always have) short summers and even shorter springs. But, to know that those places will consistently have days in the 80s 3 months from now is pretty amazing.

  51. Just starting raining here at 42 degrees and it is pouring. If it keeps this intensity, it should flip over. We shall see.

  53. We don’t have the intensity in the right places at the right time. If it’s going to do it, it’s going to be very soon and pretty far east.

  54. Just wasn’t enough. Still 39 here and raining. .37 inch so far. Dowm east Maine and New Brunswick will get hamnered.

  55. 1 or 2 degrees + intensity. We did mention how marginal this situation was. Would have been low impact had it snowed in eastern MA anyway, so now it will be winding down without much fanfare. The westerly wind will be the story later!

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