Friday Forecast

68 Comments

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)
The pattern we see develop during this 5-day period is typical of spring – high pressure in Canada, series of low pressure areas passing near or south of southern New England. It’s a cool and unsettled pattern overall, but that doesn’t mean we can’t sneak in some milder weather, and we will do just that for a part of the weekend. The first low pressure system brings wet weather by tonight to very early Saturday, but we do salvage a good part of the weekend, later Saturday through much of Sunday, with dry weather, before the next low arrives for a rainy Monday. Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox home opener, does not look like a stellar spring day but rather a more typical one with onshore flow and at least a fair amount of cloudiness. It does, however, look like Monday’s steadier rain will be out of the picture by then. If things were to move a little more quickly, we could get rid of the easterly wind for a more northerly or even westerly one, but I would say odds are against that at this point.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving west and south of Boston late afternoon, overspreading all areas early evening. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain evening, may briefly mix with or turn to snow some areas mainly west of Boston favoring higher elevations, tapering to drizzle and scattered rain showers with patchy fog overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising through the 40s overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming S.
SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of rain showers early. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-59 south-facing shores, 58-65 elsewhere with 65-72 possible interior valley locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62 except cooling back through the 50s along the coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering to drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)
Pattern will feature high pressure in Canada and waves of low pressure passing south of New England, possibly over New England. This is a cooler/unsettled pattern overall with wet weather likely centered around April 11. May briefly warm up toward the end of the period with fair weather returning.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)
Overall similar pattern looks like it may remain in place. Too early to tell which days would be coolest and which potentially milder, and which will be wetter, but will fine-tune going forward.

68 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. If we manage to get the rain south and/or east of the area by the home opener, it may only be in the 40s at Fenway with a chill NE wind and a dense stratus overcast. Wouldn’t be the first April ballgame that way. 😛

    1. Your idea sounds a lot more reasonable compared to some of the home opener forecasts I saw last night.

      1. A chilly, raw day would actually be rather fitting given their horrific West Coast trip. When I first looked at the opening schedule, I had bad feelings. Yes, I do blame MLB scheduling.

        The team that accepts their rings will be imposters. The real members were last seen at Dodger Stadium in November (or was it late October?). 😉

        1. I’m not worried.

          My first goal post is 40 games. I hope they can recover to 23-17. That would require a reasonable 21-11 the next 32 games.

          Over last 120 or so, if they play .600 ball or win 3 of every 5, that would be 72 wins for a total of 95.

          I don’t know if that will beat the Yankees win total, but it will likely secure a wild card birth.

          1. Well I must say, their starting pitching had better get their collective asses in gear.

            An abysmal start is very difficult to overcome.

            Yes, it is very very early, but what is happening
            is NOT a good sign. Best get corrected sooner rather than later.

            1. Alex Cora needs to transform (at least temporarily) into Bill Belecheck-mode to end the euphoria. Time to get tough and get into players faces, if necessary. The Yankees are not going to fold this time.

    2. They may be most collectively poor batch of forecasts for a temperature that I’ve seen in a long time. But since it’s on the models, it must be true, right?

  9. Got some sleet and a some snow flakes mixing in right now. Forecast spot on with a wintry mix to start before going over to rain.

    1. In typical New England spring fashion, a few areas may get coated with snow tonight and approach or even touch 70 tomorrow.

  10. We are likely to be spending a whole lot of time on the cool side of “the boundary” during the next 1 to 2 weeks, one of the exceptions being part of this weekend…

  12. One model (the only one, really) buying a colder scenario for the Monday-Tuesday period is the ICON. The others are all suggest the weekend warmth carrying right into next week as the warm front blasts through early Monday. Good test for that model on whether it can pick out something the others aren’t, or if it’s out to lunch.

    1. Given how poor most guidance was on a warm scenario not too long ago when the front was somewhere to our south, I’ll not necessarily side with the ICON as it may actually be right for the wrong reason, but side against the majority, and go with past experience in my current leaning. That big warm-up that has been advertised at the end of many 5 day forecasts had suddenly vanished because it was driven by guidance temperatures. We’ll see if this is something similar. If today’s 12z ECMWF is right for Tuesday, we may not only be in the 40s in Boston but they may have to call off opening day. Hoping that’s further south then shown there.

    1. This morning’s Chatham sounding showed incredibly dry air at mid levels. There’s going to be a pretty good area of snow around this evening.

    1. The ongoing weather is going to look like mid winter for a few hours in a good chunk of SNE this evening.

    1. FWIW, the Euro for late next week as well as the run total snow map are pretty similar to the Canadian.

      Have to watch that system late next week. It has been modeled as a pretty cold system over the past several days and it is right around the time the NAO is predicted to tank. Might even need to watch for some frozen precip in SNE as well.

      2. And….the Euro is loading up with another storm over the deep south on Day 10, heading towards us into a cold airmass….

  16. It looks/feels more like frozen than liquid upcoming. Brrrr!

    “Ring around the sun or moon, means rain or snow soon.”

    -Dick Albert

  21. Pretty dismal forecast the coming weeks. Lots of grays, raw, wet at times. In other words, spring in New England. Per Mark’s post above, looks like NNE could be getting several winter storms this month. With the tremendous snow pack, cool temperatures, and additional snow fall this month, I expect there to be snow remnants in the Whites and possibly Greens too – and surely in Baxter State Park atop Katahdin – in July and August.

  25. Just came in from outside. About as raw as it gets.

    Sox are getting smoked 14-1 by a bad Arizona team. Oakland is a fair team, and the Sox almost got swept. Seattle is a mediocre team, and the Sox almost got swept. Right now, the Sox are the worst team in the majors, in almost every category. They’re asleep. They look lost and unfocused. Reminds me of 2011. Talented team that began 2 and 10. They recovered, only to stumble badly in September, going 7 and 20. We’ll see what this year brings. Early returns are not promising.

    1. With all due respect because, as you know, I always value your views. The Red Sox have a deep history of being the come back kids. As such, they also have a history of doing better when they start off slowly. May I suggest sitting back and enjoying a team that has given more lately than many I know had the pleasure to witness but who would have ever so proudly cherished every second.

      1. They did fantastic last year when they got off to a torrid start. I believe their longest losing streak all season was three.

        2. I’m looking at history. They’ve been called the come back kids since the impossible dream years. Perhaps it’s time to just enjoy the game??

  26. The Red Sox will be fine. I think the season is too long, but this time it will benefit them. 🙂

    1. Yes, the season is TOO long. The schedule should be reduced to maybe 150 games. I knew the West Coast trip would be the kiss of death for the Red Sox. Shame on MLB scheduling. I bet MLB would never schedule the Yankees with a trip to start the season.

      1. If you’re calling this team dead after 2 weeks, you may as well not tune into any more games. 😉 That’s like calling winter over before Christmas. 😉

      1. So Philip..the season is too long. In 1960 MLB played only 8 less games as opposed to today. On the average they opened somewhere between April 6th and April 10th. Recently people complained till cows came home about Boston (or any northern city team) opening at home in the potentially cold and damp weather of April. So what does MLB do…they seemingly tried to schedule a lot of the first two weeks of the season in warmer weather parks or parks with retractable roofs. Granted not in every case but a lot more than the recent past. So you can’t have it both ways. Is the season too long….It’s actually longer now for a number reasons..One of which is the added 8 games. Another factor is no more scheduled doubleheaders. Growing up there were always 4 or 5 scheduled (at least) during the year and this helped shorten the season. Lastly…it’s not the front end of the season that’s the problem…it’s the playoffs…You can be playing right up until Nov 1 the way it works now. Oh and I also agree with TK and disagree with all the other doom and gloomers…This team will be fine..There is way too much talent on the team for this slide to continue. BTW a few other really good teams have struggled early too (Cubs, Yankees and Astros).

        1. Oh and Philip the Yankees did open at home for their first 6 games….they went 2 and 4….sure helped them a lot 🙂

        2. Thanks for that info Keith. I didn’t know why the openings were away or about double headers. And as I think I may have said a time or ten, I agree re playoffs.

  27. The 00z Euro sure changed things up in its 7-10 day time frame.

    Warmth in the east, ahead of storm.

    Let’s see if this holds in future runs ….

    1. Gives the SE ridge a lot more strength and has a large trof much further west of New England.

  28. Updating now…
    Had some very long days this week and a minor a-fib episode early this morning so I wanted to get that under control and rest a little extra. Done! 🙂

  29. I think the 2011 Sox were 2-7 to start and proceeded to be 83-51 at August 31st.

    We won’t remix everyone what happened in September 🙂 🙂 🙂

    But, the point is they also were very talented and certainly turned things around.

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