Tuesday Forecast

41 Comments

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)
My opinion of the weather for today has been the same since about last Thursday, and that is we’d see a marine layer in place with chilly air, especially closer to the coast, with a likely overcast sky and patchy drizzle/fog. The uncertainty was whether or not we’d see any rain showers or steady rain, and if so whether or not it would have an impact on the playing of the first game of the baseball season at Fenway Park. It still looks like, unless that game runs long, that they will get it in without the rain, but definitely with the damp and raw chill in the air. That’s spring in New England. It’s happened like this many times, and since that big ocean we live next to isn’t going anywhere, it will happen many more times. About those showers, it’s a cold front approaching, which will bring drying air in tomorrow. Is it really a cold front if many portions of eastern MA, southern NH, and RI end up milder tomorrow than they will be today? Technically yes. Why? The marine layer of air at the surface is rather shallow. If you travel upward a thousand feet, it’s it will be much milder. Think of the marine layer as an extension of the surface. The rest of the weather is going on above it while we’re socked in. That mild air above will indeed by replaced by colder air up there tomorrow, but here at the surface as we shift to a land breeze and push the marine layer away, it will actually be milder during the mid part of the day behind the cold front. High pressure moves into the region Wednesday night then offshore gradually during Thursday, which will be a nice day but with a cooling coastal sea breeze. A strong low pressure area will move into the western Great Lakes Friday then across southeastern Canada Saturday. A warm front will cross the region early Friday with some cloudiness and a cold front will approach from the west later Friday, which turns out cloudier and eventually wet. This cold front will be the first of 2 parented by that low, and the air will not be all the chilly behind the first one, so Saturday ends up dry and breezy but fairly mild, until the second cold front comes across later in the day with some clouds (no precipitation) and a shifting wind leading to a chillier ending to the day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Rain showers arriving west to east late-day, may be mixed with sleet/snow southern NH and northern MA. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE later.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely early evening, ending west to east late evening. An additional passing rain/sleet/snow shower possible across southern NH and far northern MA late evening or overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arrive west to east during afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)
Latest examination of the upcoming pattern shifts my thinking on the next system a little to a faster and more progressive situation, with warm front approaching April 14 turning a bright start into a cloudy and wet finish, but the system may move so quickly, regardless of whether low pressure tracks south of, over, or north of southern New England, that the threat of wet weather may diminish rather quickly during April 15, which happens to feature the Boston Marathon as well as a late morning Red Sox start. Will fine-tune this forecast. Progressive pattern expected to continue and result in dry weather April 16-17 and a rain shower risk April 18 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)
This pattern during this period may be in the configuration of what I call a progressive block. Sounds contradictory but not really. It’s a set-up with high latitude blocking that is kind of squished north but systems to the south keep moving from west to east instead of cutting off. It results in a pattern here that probably brings 1 or 2 relatively minor storm systems across the region during the period, but no long-lasting unsettled weather. Since medium range has been difficult of late with MJO being neutral (for one thing) and seemingly messing up the medium range guidance, will really just keep in mind that the weather pattern during this period may end up different than currently expected and will keep watching it.

41 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. I think there may still be people thinking today will be 60+ because their weather app told them that 6 days ago. 😉 I’m waiting for the social media posts that say “Where are the 60s the weather people said would be here for the home opener?!” They’ll be out there. 🙂 That reminds me, Pete B. was hilarious on the 11PM news last night, first calling out a driver making an illegal U-turn caught on live camera as they were showing it at the start of the weather, then he slammed weather apps, TK-style. Love that guy!

  3. Thanks TK !

    Superb discussion with excellent analysis and an easy to understand explanation about today’s cold front.

  7. Thanks, TK…

    As Ned Martin (longtime radio voice of the Boston Red Sox) used to say to describe weather such as this, “It’s a grungy day at Fenway!”

    And, as John Fogerty says, “We’re born again, there’s new grass on the field!”

    It’s Opening Day! Life is good.

    Go Sox!

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Folks on this blog were well aware that today would be grungy. I told that to my wife days ago and she didn’t believe me.

    1. Nope – sorry, but I heard possible snow on the 9th and my head wrapped around it and held right there

  10. I hope the ice cream venders at Fenway don’t work off a commission, they may want to switch to the chowdah today.

  12. Tk is that wet finish for Sunday & do we know if it’s more late day or evening. Thank you.

  13. A few hours from first pitch and it is still ONLY 39 at Logan.

    PATHETIC weather for baseball! Baseball should be OUTLAWED in April
    around these parts(!*@^#&*(!^@&*#^!&@^#&%^!@&*#^!@&#%*!*

    Yes, I know, this CRAP happens every stinken Spring (or most anyway).

    I complain bitterly, but to be honest walking to the office from the parking lot,
    I was saying to myself as long as the wind stays reasonable, not so bad out at all.

    I just like to bitch. Sorry.

  14. Rum and tea (Swedes call it “grog”) would be good for fans on a day like today.

    Sale can throw 81 mph and he’d still probably get away with it. It’s one of those days that the ball doesn’t carry well, especially to left and center field.

    Baseball is tough in this weather because there is so much time during which you’re not doing much. So, your body gets cold. Then when you do have to sprint the likelihood of a pulled muscle increases.

    The Twins will be playing at home later this week, with temps in the low 30s and snow showers. That’s brutal, although I’ve been to that stadium in April during a cold snap and the gentle Vikings (my name for Minnesotans) are in a festive mood. Hot chocolate is flowing, along with grog that people sneak in, and the fans just laugh at those who think it’s cold. One of the questions I heard some of the folks ask each other was “how was your winter?” Around here in late August or early September we sometimes ask “how was your summer?” But, I don’t hear people asking “how was your winter?” My daughter explained that the folks there tend to `hibernate’ and you just don’t see them for months on end.

    1. Hmmmm – I prefer glogg (which is what they are drinking while hybernating) but with a cold, I think I will try grog. Thanks!

  16. I’m sitting behind home plate section 19 and thermometer by Right field says 38 degrees field temp. It’s chilly but always a warm atmosphere opening day. Happy New Year!!

    1. Enjoy your day at the diamond, Diamond! Hope the Sox can come back in this one.

      1. I was nicknamed that for the enjoyment of the game when I first went into the Air Force 24 years ago and it stuck! There still a strong team. No worries!

        1. Love seeing your posts and these just made me smile. Thank you for your service. My older brother was in the air force also.

          1. Thank you Vicki for the kind words. I’m actually retiring this year. I thank him for his service.

            1. Wow – a very long time for you. Thank you just isn’t enough

              Enjoy the game. I love your outlook!

  17. Leaning toward the 12z ICON solution for early next week. This model has been sneaky good again picking things out before others, including the Euro.

        1. It’s fairly quick-moving. Low center may pass north of the region instead of south. If that is the case we get a round of warm front rain Sunday night and the threat of a couple rounds of showers Monday as a cold front & secondary trough move by but not an all-day rain. It may even get briefly mild if we manage to sneak the warm sector up into the region enough. A little more detailed than I want to get 6 days out but that’s a scenario based on the ICON’s trend.

  18. I simply stay the course. Model runs all have their limitations. Don’t buy any solutions or mid term trends. Impactful snow is hard to come by in SNE in the areas where most people live. Everyone points to the same 2 or 3 storms over the last 25 years to say it could happen. Well that leaves 85% plus of the time it doesn’t.

    It is cool and raw followed by days that tease us in the 60s and 70s,back to cool and raw No persistence. In other words our fate during the month of April more often than not.

    1. April is more fickle than the winter months.

      My friend up in Amherst NH just sent me a video. Ground partially covered with ice pellets and it just turned to snow there. This is the shower/t-storm line moving through, but it looks like the thunder activity is diminishing rapidly. Plenty of mild/unstable air above and a layer of cold under that to create some ice/snow. Neat atmosphere today!

      1. As a lover of outdoor time, I hate unpredictabile April weather. From a forecasting perspective it fascinates me. Models are useless, model snow maps expose snow lovers versus agnostic forecasters and seasonal predictions get thrown out the door and bring the best to their knees.

  20. Chilly here at my new Amesbury home on the Merrimack River. 34 degrees and we just had a 10 minute burst of fairly heavy snow.

  21. About as raw as it gets here in Boston. The ducks looked like they were cold. Almost everyone is bundled up, myself included. The flowering trees, which had looked great this past weekend, are less enthusiastic right now.

    And in Caribou, Maine more snow is n the way. Snow plow drivers up there must be raking it in. It’s been 5 months of almost non-stop work.

    The Sox look as miserable as the weather. Someone on the radio said they were “caught off guard by Toronto’s approach.” Really. If that’s the case then they really haven’t woken up. Some more focus wouldn’t hurt. Less talk from guys like Mookie and JD Martinez about salaries, extensions, and free agency this past spring training would have been welcome. They’ve been a bizarre team since 2012. There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground: Last, first, last, last, first, first, first, last (for now – that won’t last, we hope).

  22. New post!

    I’m off to update my echo cardiogram. 🙂 I wonder if I shouldn’t have had that coffee when I got up. 😉

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