Friday Forecast

43 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)
An overcast Friday is what we have as warm air comes in above us. This will limit the surface temperature from going up too much, although it will be dry during the daylight hours. Milder air does come in at the surface tonight when you will feel the humidity notably go up for one of the first times this year, not the the point of feeling uncomfortable at all, just if you are outside you’ll notice the air being un-dry, if you’ll pardon the expression. This leads to a round of rain showers from what will loosely pass for a cold front as it moves through the region in the early morning hours of Saturday and then sluggishly makes its way off the coast of New England, allowing the showers to hang on a little longer in the morning in southeastern MA and RI. But the day will not be a wash-out, not even close to it, as these showers will exit about mid morning. The clouds, however, may linger in southern RI through Cape Cod through much of the day, and with a southwest wind being onshore there, it will be significantly cooler than the rest of the region, which makes it at least into the 60s, and over 70 in some areas. High pressure settles across northern New England by Sunday and this is going to result in more broad onshore wind from the east across the region, resulting in a cooler day overall, however if you’re at the South Coast, the day won’t feature much temperature change from the one just before it. That front that went through on Saturday morning will be moving back to the north as a warm front Sunday night and early Monday, bringing a round of rain with it. This time, the front won’t have much trouble pushing through the region, so the latest indications for Patriots Day Monday is for a mild day with just occasional rain showers. This will not be as big an impact on the Boston Marathon as a driving, steady rain and east wind would have been (like last year), and it leaves a fair chance that the Red Sox game with its late morning start can also be played. As low pressure cuts across central or northern New England later Monday it will pull that front quickly back to the south so by the end of the day Monday and especially Monday night will turn much cooler, with some additional rain showers likely. Could not completely rule out a rumble of thunder either with some colder air aloft adding to the instability. By Tuesday, it looks like a dry, windy, and rather chilly day across southeastern New England as low pressure moves away via eastern Canada and a small area of high pressure moves toward New England from the Great Lakes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely arrive west to east. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering rain showers southeastern MA and RI. Remaining mostly cloudy southern RI and Cape Cod late morning on and becoming partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands, 60-67 southeastern MA and southern RI to southeastern CT, 67-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, but long rain-free periods possible. Rain showers becoming more widespread from west to east late-day with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 57-64 elsewhere. A quick temperature drop possible late-day west and north of Boston. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible, shifting to NW in areas west and north of Boston late-day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely evening. Lows 42-49. wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)
Active pattern continues. A frontal boundary will be in the region April 17-18 with cloudiness at least, some chance of wet weather, and uncertain temperatures depending on the frontal position. Push of warmer air may occur about April 19 but with a risk of rain showers. Frontal system from the west should bring more rain showers to start the April 20-21 weekend but drier weather should arrive during the weekend. Timing, of course, is not nearly certain this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)
Similar pattern. Best chance of wet weather comes mid period.

43 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Thank you TK.

    Looks like some of Monday will be dryish for runners and volunteers as well as re-enactments

  8. I don’t recall back-to-back “extreme” weather days on Patriots Day over the years, at least recently. For example, I don’t recall back-to-back heat conditions. I bet the amount of rainfall will still be similar to last year, in spite of the dry times expected this time that did not occur last year. We will see.

  9. Thanks TK.

    The next 7-10 days will see the season’s biggest melt-down across central and northern New England. TK and I, and many other mets, have discussed the enhanced concern for flooding this spring given the near record snowfall this winter. Well, it’s time to pay the piper. The past few weeks, as expected, have definitely helped somewhat, but in some cases we’ve actually added more snow recently. Now we’ll be getting rid of a lot of it along with some heavy rain. Expect significant rises on a number of New England rivers in the coming week, including the Connecticut.

      1. They will continue to have serious flooding problems. It had already been a historic spring of flooding for much of the Plains. Several rivers were already in major flood stage before the blizzard, and flooding will continue for a long time to come. Looking at some of the river gauges out there, it’s astounding how far into major flood stage some of those rivers have been for so long (though in some cases in that part of the country, major flooding is fairly common this time of year). What New England will experience won’t be on that level; there will be rivers out there in major flood stage for weeks to come. Ours will go up and down much faster, and most flooding will probably be in the minor to moderate category.

      1. Wow! Yes, a big chunk of that will get wiped out in the next 7-10 days. It’s all gotta go somewhere.

      3. Wow….great year and see why you are concerned. Odd that I don’t recall, with all of the snow there was back in the day, that there were problems with flooding.

    1. Awesome, Mark. It was where I began skiing at age 2, where my dad taught with Hannes Schneider. The old skimobile is gone It has had its ups and downs, and I’m thrilled to see it making its way back.

  12. Latest CFSv2 pointing towards much above normal temps this May across the Northeast as well as below normal precip.

  13. I can’t wait to start tracking thunderstorms soon. Hopefully less tornadoes this year than last year. Speaking of tornadoes parts of MS TX and LA maybe seeing some tornadoes tomorrow.

  14. Some places may get more rain out of tonight’s frontal passage then they get on Monday. 😉

    This is why I wish the media would stop being so certain so many days in advance. There’s nothing wrong with saying we can’t tell until a day or 2 before an event what the details will be.

    1. Last night Pete B did a Facebook live where he would provide “personal” forecasts. Someone asked about Easter and another person asked about Patriots Day. He stated he had more confidence in his Easter forecast than the one for Patriots Day.

      1. Interesting, and quite brave. Right now I could justify everything from windy/cold/showery, to dry and chilly, to dry and very mild, to mild & showery, for April 21. 😉

                1. Almost, but not quite. I still can’t rule out something renegade as we move through April.

  16. On the list of words I hate for describing something weather: vivid. Specifically, I detest the phrase vivid lightning. Since lightning has its own visual definition to anybody who knows what it is, and that’s pretty much everybody, then putting that adjective in front of it makes it a redundant phrase. Drives me nuts. 😛

    1. I see your point. It’s similar to more perfect. You cannot be more perfect than perfect. However, you do have degrees of lightning brilliance. What do you use to describe?

      1. I’m thinking of it in more of a forecasting sense. For example, it would be fine to describe very distant lightning as dim, and closer lightning as bright or vivid, as it relates to direct observation. I don’t like using the phrase in a forecasting way. What reminded me of it is I heard a local forecaster today talking about potential thunderstorms for Monday with possible hail and vivid lightning.

        1. Understood 100%. In your position that would bug me also. I don’t pay attention to grammar etc from posters. It tends to irritate me when people do. But from professionals, it is different.

          I like the idea of conveying it might be more than run of the mill. Or is this a type of sensationalizing. Would you use active cloud to ground?

          1. I think in the case this is being talked about it’s too early to really be getting that detailed, but they are probably doing so because of all the activity scheduled in the area for Monday.

              1. Yes. It makes sense. I don’t think we’ll be dealing with big boomers though, but I understand the cautious approach. Many people outside that day.

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