Saturday Forecast

43 Comments

8:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)
If you woke up thinking today would be sunny and warm, you didn’t pay attention. Better start, never know when there will be a pop quiz! We have a slow-moving front crossing the region. It’s in no hurry, and it’s also falling apart somewhat. Numerous rain showers, some moderate to heavy, moved in overnight, and the broken band of showers is still with southeastern New England, although as expected it is making its exit, but slowly. The timing hasn’t really changed, just more toward the back side of the window, so these showers should be exiting the region during the course of mid morning from west to east while the entire areas sinks to the southeast, so the last place to be wet will be Cape Cod. There’s also a band of showers to the northwest which will be drying up, but the boundary that is causing that area will be hanging around central to northeastern MA and southern NH and may help to fire up a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm later today in those areas, so we’ll have to be on the look-out for that. The rest of the region will be rain free from late morning on. Don’t expect a sudden turn to brilliant sun though. While sunshine will make an appearance, especially in central and northern MA and southern NH where it will provide some fuel for possible later activity, it will be quite limited to the southeast. When the air flow above and at the surface is similar and a frontal boundary is pretty much parallel to the upper winds, which this one is, it doesn’t move much and cloudiness often remains dominant in the region. But it will be a milder to warmer day overall, with the usual cooler spots where a southwest wind is an onshore wind (South Coast, Cape Cod, outer Cape Ann). Another couple positives to having some wet weather about, temporary reduction in pollen count and fire danger. High pressure settles across northern New England by Sunday and this is going to result in more broad onshore wind from the east across the region, resulting in a cooler day overall. A warm front will approach from the south and then move through from south to north without much trouble during the early hours of Monday, which most of the rain will occur. This time high pressure to the north is not strong enough to hold the front back and keep the cold locked in at the surface like we see many times in spring. So getting into the warm sector means that our Patriots Day Monday will not be like the one we saw last year with a driving cold rain, but will feature mild and showery weather. Even though there may be a band of heavier showers and even some thunder, favoring the morning hours, that should move out fairly quickly and several rain-free hours are probable in any given location, at least making it easier for runners and spectators of the Boston Marathon and leaving a good chance of getting the Red Sox game in as well. There are also some early to mid morning outdoor activities commemorating Revolutionary War events, and those will likely be impacted by showers, so plan accordingly. Low pressure exiting the region via the Gulf of Maine and southeastern Canada pulls chilly air back into the region Monday night and Tuesday, but it will dry out and also be quite breezy. A warm front will approach slowly from the southwest Wednesday, which should be a dry day but may feature some cloudiness.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers likely eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA, and diminishing rain showers central MA and southern NH, while activity exits southeastern areas from west to east during mid morning (lastly Cape Cod). Mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon with most sun north and west, but also a pop up shower or thunderstorm possible late-day central and northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands, 60-67 southeastern MA and southern RI to southeastern CT, 67-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 45-52 evening, then temperatures rise overnight to 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms with brief downpours west to east across the region early to mid morning. Additional passing rain showers possible thereafter. Highs 53-60 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely evening. Lows 42-49. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind light SE to S.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)
Warm front slowly crosses the region April 18 with lots of cloudiness and the possibility of a period of light rain. Warm sector weather April 19-20 with lots of clouds, a gusty breeze, and a risk of rain showers. Current timing suggest this exits for fair weather April 21 along with mild air. Upper level low pressure should bring unsettled and somewhat cooler weather to the region to end the period, but timing and exact evolution are uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)
Best wet weather risks April 24 and again at the end of the period. We’ll need to keep an eye on river levels during the next few to several weeks as the spring warming melting the immense snow pack in northern New England and occasional wet weather events add to them. There will be flooding issues, the degree of which remains to be seen.

43 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. They still may have to deal with one quick line of downpours.

      There was far far too much blind model following going on among many forecasters in the days leading up to this. I’m very disappointed, even in some of the veterans. I don’t know why suddenly even some of them are seeing the models as concrete.

      JMA, SAK, WxW, and I say over and over and over how crappy these things can be. Well, at least the WHW readers know. 😉

      1. One…could have been ch 5….had a partial sun showing on the forecast Dr S shared. Rest had rain. In this case I agree. It’s a big day for the marathon but equally big…and too often overlooked….for our country.

  6. Quiz

    What is the term for a period of unseasonably cold weather during spring?

    A Indian Winter
    B Dogwood Winter
    C Blackberry Winter
    D Both B and C

  7. Thank you TK, great forecast discussion today. Your efforts are appreciated and they sure do help with planning things.

  8. TK – Any chance of the thunderstorms being severe on Monday? That could be more problematic for the runners and even spectators than a plain cold rain like last year.

    1. Looks like we’re thinking the same way, I hadn’t seen your comment before I posted below. Anything severe looks very unlikely, but it’s the lightning threat that would concern me.

  9. Thanks TK!

    I wonder if there’s any sort of “lightning plan” for the Marathon? There’s certainly a non-zero risk that there will be storms on the parade route Monday. Hopefully that doesn’t materialize. NWS Boston does a lot of decision support work for the Marathon, it’ll be a busy and stressful couple days there.

  10. hmmm
    Just looking over the 12Z NAMS.
    They show very high helicity values, Modest CAPE from 250 joules to 1000 joules along
    with very low LCL heights with strong radar returns, YET zilch on the super cell composite or significant tornado parameter.

    Not for nothing, but shouldn’t there be at least a modicum of concern here?

  11. WxW:

    I was thinking the same thing, so I looked it up. For the Chicago Marathon, there are four stages of emergencies with Extreme (Black) Alert being the highest where the marathon is stopped and runners and spectators take cover. They have identified shelters along the route (schools, museums, parking garages, etc.).

    http://aims-worldrunning.org/symposium/7th_AIMS_Symposium_George_Chiampas_ppt.pdf

    The 2014 Jacksonville Marathon was cancelled in the middle of the race because of lightning:

    https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20837512/lightning-storm-brings-abrupt-end-to-marathon-in-jacksonville/

    I didn’t find anything about the Boston Marathon. I am sure there is a plan in place. I am guessing specific security/emergency plans aren’t available to the public or on the Internet/

    1. The tv mets should definitely come up with a narrowed timeline on storms so officials can plan just in case.

    2. Captain and WxW. I did ask a friend who is a member of BAA and works at one of the mile markers yearly. I don’t know if he’ll see the question but will let you know if he does. It’s a great question

  12. I hit 78 degrees today. Brain says go outside and enjoy the spring weather. My body also say I have allergies.

  14. Slow-paced yard work today (including mom) and we got a lot done. Slightly ahead of schedule so far in 2019. 🙂

    Sox lost today but long long season. They’re getting it together – just some ironing out to do yet. They won’t be perfect.

    I’m usually out every Saturday night somewhere but this very evening I’ll actually be home, eventually watching 2 hockey games (Bruins & NCAA final), both 8PM starts. Good thing I have 2 screens I can see at once. 😉

      1. Yes. They’ve played decently well in their wins, and already shown the ability to come back. It’s not going to work every time. They are also not as bad as many people think they are. It’s a rough start. It happens. It gets in their heads and takes over, but they’ll work it out.

        1. Wise man. It does get in their head and the sad part is the fans that they count on to help get it out and pull it out of their head are too busy criticizing them when they need much more.

          It’s a simple concept really.

        2. Well said sir! I can’t agree more. Like I said on the home opener loss “they are a strong team”.

  16. Thank you, TK!

    Lovely day, indeed.

    Bruins are up 3-0 and have shown some physicality and intense play.

    Respectfully disagree with you, TK, on the Red Sox. They’ve looked wretched all season, with a couple of exceptions, most notably Mitch Moreland. Most concerning is the fact that they’re hardly ever ahead in games, even in the ones they’ve won.

    1. It’s April 13. They started the season on a long road trip they historically don’t do that great on anyway. They have come home and been so so. But I repeat, it’s April 13. You may as well stop watching the team right now if you feel that way this early. But it’s your opinion. 🙂

      This team will be back in the playoffs. I’m not saying they will cruise to a repeat. But they will be quite alright. You’ll see. 😉

  17. I love that Bruins team that was on the ice tonight. Those are the real Bruins.

    And Nazem Kadri once again proves that he is one of the dirtiest players, if not the dirtiest player, ever to put on an NHL uniform. If it were up to me, that moron would never suit up for another game in this league. Numerous suspensions, including TWO YEARS IN A ROW in the playoffs. It’s not too often you hear an unbiased national announcer use the term “stupid” for a player. Well, they were correct, and they were being too nice. The words I’d have used would have been censored. He’s a disgrace to the game. He retaliates for a clean hit with a deliberate 2 hand stick to the head of an opponent. Nice job……….

    As far as weather, the impact on the marathon and the Sox game will be minimal. Both will go on without much trouble at all. And I am sure that once again the lesson about just going with the models will not be learned. 😉

    1. I don’t watch hockey but when I turned TV on it was on the channel,broadcasting the game. I watched in amazement at what apparent was just one of Kadris dirty plays. If that’s what he does, I don’t get it either TK

  19. Captain and Vicki: Thank you for your insights above on the lightning issue for the Marathon! Hopefully it will not be a problem. Right now it looks like thunder should be pretty limited and the threat window may move through before the Marathon. Still a little bit of a concern.

  22. New quiz. Not weather related but thought was fun

    Name a country. Remove the last letter of the country’s name. Rearrange the remaining letters to make a word in that countries language that means country.

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