Sunday Forecast

56 Comments

10:44AM

NOTE
A net outage delayed today’s update, which doesn’t have many changes so it’s slightly abbreviated and much of the previous forecast is still intact in it.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)
Warm front approaches today and passes tonight, then Monday sees a cold front pass by early in the day and a secondary trough later. Currently expecting most wet weather to be tonight and very early Monday and one more round of wet weather later Monday. It’s detailed below but I do believe the Boston Marathon will take place with minimal impact from weather and the Red Sox game will also be able to go on. Tuesday will be blustery spring day with lots of sun and wind as low pressure intensifies while moving away via eastern Canada and high pressure moves toward New England from the west. A warm front will approach slowly from the southwest Wednesday, which should be a dry day but may feature some cloudiness. There should be a period of wet weather at some point Wednesday night or part of Thursday as the front moves across the region, putting us into the warm sector by late Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 45-52 evening, then temperatures rise overnight to 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms with brief downpours west to east across the region early morning. Isolated rain showers mid morning through early afternoon. Rain showers and a risk of thunderstorms west to east mid to late afternoon, with small hail possible in any heavier cells in this batch. Highs 53-60 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind light SE to S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere occurring late in the day. Wind light SE shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)
A low to moderate forecast based on timing, but current idea is warm sector weather with south to southwest wind, warm air, and occasional rain showers April 19-20, then a front getting to the east of the region with drier but still mild weather April 21. Upper level low pressure may bring some unsettled weather to the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)
Best wet weather risks April 24 and again April 27-28 weekend. We’ll need to keep an eye on river levels during the next few to several weeks as the spring warming melting the immense snow pack in northern New England and occasional wet weather events add to them. There will be flooding issues, the degree of which remains to be seen.

56 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Here’s a repost of Vicki’s quiz:

    New quiz. Not weather related but thought was fun

    Name a country. Remove the last letter of the country’s name. Rearrange the remaining letters to make a word in that countries language that means country.

  4. Thanks TK.

    Looks like an active day and night of severe weather on the way here in the mid-Atlantic. Pretty impressive setup for mid-April. Biggest question will be instability, especially as the threat evolves into an overnight one.

  5. According to Barry, a major nor’easter NEVER occurred during the Boston Marathon. This was part of the weather trivia quiz this morning. Then what was all that cold rain and wind the runners experienced last year??

    A. Partial solar eclipse
    B. A major nor’easter *
    C. Cold, freezing air
    D. Intense heat, humidity

    Partial solar eclipse during the 1939 Marathon (go figure) 😉

      1. The newscasters and I picked A. I still think that should be the correct answer. I would like TK’s input.

  7. Great masters. It took just over three years but for the first time I can watch and not cry. Well, except when I say I won’t cry. I have pimento cheese spread made for sandwiches and/or crackers. I am torn bwteen hoping for Tiger or Molinari. Mac was a fan of Molinaris. He also wondered if he is from Molinari Sambucca family fame. It’s the best of the sambuccas.

    1. I am watching the Masters to. If Francesco Molinari holds off Tiger he will have won two of the last three majors.

      1. I didn’t not know that. Thanks, JJ

        Mac started playing golf when they lived in South Africa. But his true love for the game grew when he played Acqua Santa in Rome. I am sure he’d be hoping for Molinari

  8. TK,
    If you hav time. What dos the weather look like in the North Conway Area on Friday and Saturday? We are trying to get out last runs of the year in on Friday at Wildcat. Hoping for good views of George. On Saturday I have to start a ceiling replacement project and need to bring some drywall and strapping to the dump up there.

    TIA

  10. For anyone that has Netflix, I would highly recommend Our Planet. It shows what it should look like, then what it is in highly impacted areas and then areas that have shown recovery when given the chance. I highly recomend episode 3 Coastal seas but that might just be me being bias 😛

    1. Good for him. I actually watched most of the match today. Haven’t watched
      golf in years, but this one was special.

    2. I held it together through the whole match. It sure was among the top best. Fell apart at the end but I’m so very happy for tiger.

  18. Multiple tornado warnings up in the eastern part of the country today. Thankfully we will miss out any severe weather.

  19. A good day for the local teams for a change. The Red Sox pitch a shutout and the Celtics get off to a good start. 🙂

  20. Petrichor…..do you know the term?

    I only learned it recently. But I just had first hand exposure as I sat in deck

      1. 🙂

        It was. It’s a great word, isn’t it. The rain was light enough that I could sit out for quite a while

        1. I used that term this evening while visiting a friend. One that word and also what it describes.

          1. This is rather technical but a good description of the science behind petrichor. So often the ozone connection is mentioned as the cause of that “first raindrops” smell, , but this shows that there’s so much more involved:

            “Petrichor”, well known to mineralogists as argillaceous odour, is commonly observed as the pleasant and refreshing odour which frequently accompanies the first rains after a warm dry period.

            Several possible mechanisms have been considered in connection with the origin of this odour. These include the synthesis of odorous compounds on the clay or rock surface by spontaneous catalysis of atmospheric gases, the sorption of organic compounds from the atmosphere, catalytic transformation of sorbed compounds and microbial activity.

            Evidence is presented which suggests the atmosphere contains, as general contaminants, lipids, terpenes, carotenoids and other volatile decomposition products from animal and vegetable matter. The sorption of these compounds, or their oxygenated derivatives, by rocks and clays is controlled by the properties of the sorbent and the partial water vapour pressure of the atmosphere, low relative humidities favouring maximum uptake.

            Oxidation and transformation of sorbates take place on the rock surface and are accelerated by warm to hot climatic conditions. The odorous and volatile products of these processes are subsequently displaced from the pores of the rock by moisture when the relative humidity of the atmosphere approaches saturation.

            from “Genesis of petrichor”
            by J.Bear and R.G.Thomas

            Also, since it’s 4 a.m., most will likely be spared this extra long comment!

  21. Woken by approaching thunderstorm down here.

    It’s been a crazy night, with temps holding around 75F !!!! and dewpoints at 70F, which they’ve been at since Sunday morning.

  23. Line is slightly ahead of short range guidance “schedule”. Only good news for the Marathon as well as the Sox game. I’m updating the blog now but this first part will be a now-cast. Y’all know what to expect pretty much. Lots of heavy rain and a decent thunderstorm for many by April standards.

  24. I believe they tried to run the Lexington Re-enactment at 6 am. It is pouring and windy…I’m afraid it may have been a real mess for hundreds of folks and families… ugh,

    1. Not sure how long that runs but it was probably well underway there by 6:45-6:50AM, storm-wise. I think they’d have been better served to wait and re-enact in the rain without lightning threat about now. I know they can only go so long in the morning doing that stuff so not sure if they had a choice.

  26. I caught the loudest thunder on video here. Missed the lightning by literally 1 second, but 2 seconds into my video kaboom! The strike was 3/4 mile NNE of me. A few other good rumbles but that was the best, at exactly 7:00AM.

  28. Was pouring buckets down here with roaring wind & thunder . Light now I think it’s ended but was crazy & many flooded roads

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