Monday Forecast

71 Comments

8:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)
I don’t need to tell most folks that the main line of thunderstorms has already moved through, right on or slightly ahead of schedule, and other than traversing part of Cape Cod as I write this blog update, it’s pretty much offshore now. The lull will take place other than a few isolated rain showers, during the running of the Boston Marathon and probably for a good part of the Red Sox game (11AM start). The competitors still on the marathon course after 1PM (west) and after 2PM (east) may have to deal with another passing downpour with possible thunder. This may also impact the late innings of the baseball game, but if it does occur it will pass through rather quickly. As we get to late afternoon, the shower threat goes away but the wind really picks up from the west and eventually northwest as low pressure intensifies while moving away via eastern Canada and high pressure approaches from the west. We’ll stay in the wind zone well into Tuesday, but Wednesday will be more tranquil, though will probably see an increase in cloudiness as a warm front sits southwest of the region. This warm front will make its way slowly across the area during Thursday with cloudiness and perhaps some wet weather at times, and by Friday we will get into the warm sector which will feature a gusty southerly wind, lots of clouds, warm air, and a threat of rain showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Cloudy mid morning with thunderstorms exiting Cape Cod, rain showers ending west to east across the region. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny late morning and midday. Variably cloudy 1PM to 5PM with additional scattered showers/thunderstorms west to east. Partly cloudy evening. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH remainder of morning, W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon, NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind light SE to S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere occurring late in the day. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of passing rain showers. Highs 58-63 South Coast, 63-68 just inland from the South Coast and south-facing portions of the eastern MA coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)
A springtime setup with a slow moving cold front bringing showery weather Saturday April 20 then moving offshore, while an upper low drifts across the Tennessee and eastern Ohio Valley putting southern New England into a warm southerly air flow but with still a risk of a few rain showers Sunday April 21. That low may drift toward the East Coast and result in a more unsettled and cooling period of weather April 22-24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)
A break in the weather early period with fair conditions, then wet weather may return April 27-28 weekend before a drier end to the period. Temperatures variable, but averaging near to slightly above normal.

71 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  3. Good Morning. Thank you TK

    Interesting morning. We had .90 inch of rain with some claps and gusts that threatened to move the house off of its foundation.

    Runners were lucky on the timing with this. I hope their luck holds. As organized as the BAA is, I am more than a little surprised that it does not have a lightning plan in place. My friend didn’t seem to be aware of one and he is the type that I feel safe saying would be aware if there were one.

  4. Oceanair, I truly enjoyed your post on petrichor. Would you repost it here or perhaps others would look toward the end of yesterday’s blog update. Thank you.

  5. This is a re-post of Oceanair’s comment from the previous blog…

    ——————

    This is rather technical but a good description of the science behind petrichor. So often the ozone connection is mentioned as the cause of that “first raindrops” smell, , but this shows that there’s so much more involved:

    “Petrichor”, well known to mineralogists as argillaceous odour, is commonly observed as the pleasant and refreshing odour which frequently accompanies the first rains after a warm dry period.

    Several possible mechanisms have been considered in connection with the origin of this odour. These include the synthesis of odorous compounds on the clay or rock surface by spontaneous catalysis of atmospheric gases, the sorption of organic compounds from the atmosphere, catalytic transformation of sorbed compounds and microbial activity.

    Evidence is presented which suggests the atmosphere contains, as general contaminants, lipids, terpenes, carotenoids and other volatile decomposition products from animal and vegetable matter. The sorption of these compounds, or their oxygenated derivatives, by rocks and clays is controlled by the properties of the sorbent and the partial water vapour pressure of the atmosphere, low relative humidities favouring maximum uptake.

    Oxidation and transformation of sorbates take place on the rock surface and are accelerated by warm to hot climatic conditions. The odorous and volatile products of these processes are subsequently displaced from the pores of the rock by moisture when the relative humidity of the atmosphere approaches saturation.

    from “Genesis of petrichor”
    by J.Bear and R.G.Thomas

    2. Saw the flyover (Heard it first) as I walking to work from South Station (was running late due to problems on the Greenbush line). What a sight!!

      1. Isn’t it funny how exciting something so simple can be. In the fourth round, they were just over the trees and so loud and powerful. I ran out each time as if it were the first. The grandkids were in awe

        Whoa wait….you work today? Any problems getting in?

  9. The line west of here is expanding. With at least four hours to go for last of field, I sure hope it falls apart enough that lightning isn’t in play

  11. There was a tornado watch up for the county I will in and Fairfield County until 7am today. There was some wind damage in the town of Sharon which is in northwest CT. I slept through the whole thing. I got up this morning and looking on twitter saw that the tornado watch was issued.

  12. I didn’t think there would be any severe weather alerts in SNE. What I thought was going to happen was heavy rain with some embedded thunder.

    1. Oh boy.

      I came in on the tail end of a discussion about lightning this am and the consideration as to Whether to send the runners to hopkinton

  15. That line is almost maxed out and I expect it to start to decay significantly as it traverses eastern MA and RI, as well as nearby southeastern NH. A few stronger cells will try to hold on.

  19. JJ, yes, I am pumped the Islanders have played as well as they have in the Pittsburgh series. Up 3-0 with a chance to sweep tomorrow in Pittsburgh. Their defense has smothered the Penguins and held Sidney Crosby to no points. TK, your hopes for a sweep actually have a chance of being realized!

    While the Isles going up 3-0 have surprised some people, how about the Columbus Blue Jackets? Up 3-0 on TB Lightning who tied the NHL record for most wins in a season by any team. What an embarrassment for the overwhelming favorites to win the Stanley Cup.

  20. Sidney Crosby held to no points is surprising. Tampa Bay should they lose this series would be one of the biggest upsets if not the biggest in NHL playoff history.

  21. I am devastated. The Notre Dame is the most beautiful cathedral I have ever seen. I loved it the first time I visited in April 1981 when I was 16. And I loved it the last time I saw it several years ago. It’s been through it all: Middle Ages, Renaissance, French Revolution, German occupation.

    Here’s a nice tribute to the Notre Dame:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ux4LC1kdQI

    1. It really is. I took so many pictures and slides of the Notre Dame when I was 17. My Canon AV-1 – which I still own, and is mostly manual (have to adjust everything from the aperture setting to flash, and of course nothing is digital) – got a work-out the spring of 1981. I loved the spires, the stained glass windows, the gargoyles, the saints, the candles, the views from up high in the cathedral. The organ music was beautiful, too.

  23. Mark, Tampa Bay’s play in the Columbus series has been embarrassing. TB lost 16 games in 8 months during the regular season, and 3 games this past week! It provides a possible opening for the Islanders and maybe the Bruins. The Islanders look exceptionally good right now. If the B’s and Isles meet it’ll be quite a series, I think.

    On a related topic, sort of, why doesn’t Quebec City have a team. They had one that failed back in the 1990s. But, one would think QC could support a team. I’ve never been a fan of teams in the deep south where ice hockey is barely played, and never on natural ice.

    1. Joshua, I think this opens the door to the Stanley Cup for several teams now in the eastern conference. Washington will be hard to get by but the Islanders split the season series with them and only finished a point behind them in the regular season standings. I’m rooting for the Bruins to get by Toronto and if they do, they would play Columbus. A Bruins/Islanders final would be a lot of fun. Though a bit early to jump the gun on the series that are not over yet.

      Quebec has been trying to get an NHL team back for many years. When there were discussions of the Islanders potentially relocating, this was one of the possible locations. I think the main issue with Quebec is that the market is too small.

  24. Nice FROPA here. Wind-driven moderate rain shower, west wind about 15-30 MPH, quick temp drop here at home. Of course the conditions are variable. Some areas less wind and lighter rain, others a quick heavy rain squall. Typical decaying convection. In a couple hours we’ll be about done with any showers and we’ll see a temperature drop off and the wind will really be busy through the night. Springtime in New England. The most volatile month, exactly at mid point. This is April!

    1. This is April, indeed. There’s something in it for everyone. April is like a rebellious teenager.

  25. I’m posting on too many topics at the same time. I’m sorry. I just saw that the American flag was rolled up in a heap during the ceremony to celebrate the U.S. winner of the wheelchair race. Someone dropped the ball big time. Glad BAA apologized. But, someone just wasn’t thinking or taking a good look around the podium.

    1. Honest mistake, but a little embarrassing. But if that’s one of the only things that goes wrong today, it’s a very very good day overall in Boston (except maybe for the Red Sox).

  26. Hi Tk,

    My family and I are going to Kennebunkport this Friday for the weekend. Can I possibly get a quick update on the weather?

    Thanks
    TJ

    1. Right now I like Friday as being a day of clouds/sun and possible passing showers, but mostly rain-free. There may be fog flirting with the area though, depending on the wind direction. Check with me Thursday for a more solid idea on that.

      Sometime Saturday we’re going to have a band of showers and possible t-storms. I don’t think all of Saturday will be wet, just not sure which hours yet.

      If you’re still there Sunday, the thinking is mainly rain-free, cloud/sun mix, and quite mild to warm.

  29. My son and I skied at Mad River Glen last yesterday which might be our last day of the season. He has never been and really wanted to go, and I hadn’t been there since the early 2000’s so I said what the heck. Long drive but worth it – still tons of natural snow on the upper 2/3 of the mountain and it was soft spring snow with temps in the upper 40’s while we were there. Not crowded at all. Here are a few shots…..

    Riding the single chair up (one of only two single lifts left in North America):

    https://imgur.com/0VLpwkn

    Shot coming down the Lynx trail. The pointy Camel’s Hump is in the distance (second tallest mountain in VT):

    https://imgur.com/ZwF1ENR

    Shot coming down “Paradise” which is the steepest trail at Mad River (40 degree pitch):

    https://imgur.com/ohFZo6W

    Also took a shot of the snowpack on one of the trail bridges (this is all natural snow). Still a lot of melting yet to go….

    https://imgur.com/7QhobDG

  30. One more nice shot. This was the waterfall along side the “Waterfall” trail. It was raging from the melting snow. This was one of many we saw on the mountain as well as along Rte 100 on the way back. Not surprised much of VT was under Flood Warnings today with the heavy rain/meting snow combo….

    https://imgur.com/VAyLf9A

    1. Nimbus and/or stratocumulus?

      By the way, all those pictures you took were great.

      I must say that I feel a bit melancholic when I know that winter is over. This is why I track snowstorms in Quebec in April, and across Nunavut in May. Then I virtually head to places like the ski resort Hotham, Australia, in July. And sometimes I just stick my head in the freezer when I’m tired of heat and humidity.

  32. EF2 tornado confirmed in southern Delaware from the storms last night and early this morning. That was a very impressive severe weather outbreak, especially in its areal coverage. Basically unbroken severe convection from SNE to Florida, in mid-April no less. I’d estimate winds at my apartment peaked at 50-65mph based on radar and several surrounding reports. Since April 13 when this multi-day outbreak began in earnest, nearly 900 reports of severe weather (mainly damaging straightline winds) have been logged nationwide.

  33. Coastal if you are reading this I saw your request on the other blog and will answer that shortly. I’ve been playing catch-up all day.

  34. …and the update for your Friday/Saturday forecast request as it stands now.

    Friday: Clouds dominant, scattered showers, but very mild. 60s lower, 50s upper.
    Saturday: Overcast. There will probably be a period of numerous showers but I’m not sure which window of time is most likely yet. Looks quite mild again with temps similar to Friday.

      1. That forecast is for Wildcat. And down here I only think we’ll have a few hours of rain at most on Saturday.

  35. Mark, I can’t tell you how much I enjoyed your photos. What a wonderful memory for you and your son. I love the snow that is left. It’s been a great year. Much like the ones I remember

    Camel hump…….we drove the over 7 hours from Belmont to Isle la Motte VT countless times to see my nana when I was young. My dad would point out camels hump. As was the case with the old man in the mountain, my brother and I weren’t really sure what we were looking at but he told us it meant we were almost there so we celebrated

    I didn’t find out until maybe 15 years ago we still had over 60 miles on windy back roads to go.

    These at the memories that last a lifetime. You are a very lucky dad and your son is blessed to have you.

    1. You expressed it well. Those were terrific photos Mark shared.

      I also liked reading your story about Camel Hump.

    2. My pleasure! Mad River has a ton of character. The single chair meters the flow of people on the mountain and add to the fact that it wasn’t crowded to begin with, and we frequently had many of these trails to ourselves.

      In addition to the view of Camel’s Hump, we could see most of Lake Champlain and Whiteface Mountain to the west, Sugarbush (Mount Ellen) to the south, and Mount Washington to the east.

      I neglected to mention as well that Mad River is reopening for skiing on Wednesday which will tie their record for the longest ski season in their 80+ year history. If they decide to reopen next weekend, they will break the record. Epic season!

      1. Perfect and can you imagine breaking an 80+ year record. It’s wonderful to see these areas coming back.

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