Thursday Forecast

74 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)
Quick update today due to time constraints in my schedule! Warm front approaches today, crosses tonight, minor precipitation associated with it. Warm sector weather dominates Friday and Saturday as low pressure crawls through the Tennessee Valley to the Great Lakes and sends a weakening cold front ahead of it, which will cross the region late Saturday to early Sunday as it basically dissipates. While rain shower activity will be associated with this, the heaviest and most concentrated band of showers may be broken enough to “skip” some areas and where they do occur they may not be there for very long. Still a few details to fine-tune with that, but the timing currently looks like wettest weather will occur Saturday night. Weakening upper level low pressure will be in the vicinity on Monday with mild and slightly unsettled weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers that may mix with sleet in a few places early to mid morning. Patchy drizzle and a risk of very light rain later in the day. Highs 54-61. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of passing rain showers. Highs 58-63 South Coast, 63-68 just inland from the South Coast and south-facing portions of the eastern MA coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Lows 51-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers but more numerous rain showers west of Boston late-day. Highs 61-68 except 55-60 South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with rain showers likely mainly eastern areas. Partly sunny with isolated rain showers thereafter.
Highs 63-70, cooler South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain showers. Highs 66-73 except cooler south-facing shores. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)
A push of cooler air with high pressure from Canada to start the period, then a frontal boundary nearby and a series of low pressure areas bringing unsettled weather at times for the balance of the period, with greatest rain threats based on current timing coming later April 24 and later April 27.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28-MAY 2)
Low pressure with mild and unsettled weather to start the period then dry and mild end to April and cooler air possible to start May. Continued low confidence forecast.

74 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  4. Thank you TK and a double thanks for the more realistic weekend forecast
    instead of the DOOM and GLOOM from the TV mets. 🙂 🙂

  10. Thank you, TK.

    Does doom and gloom sell? It appears so, as TV mets many roll out doomsday scenario forecasts (that are often inaccurate). I’ll call it weather.com `itis.’ Sad state of affairs. We’re lucky to have Dr. Sensible, with two feet on the ground, eye in the sky, and humility to boot. I’m talking about TK, of course.

    On sports, glad the Bruins won the all important Game 4. It’s a tight series. Don’t care much about the Celtics, but it’s nice to see them win. The Red Sox look like burnt toast, or in weather terms like a tornado just hit their town and they’re looking aghast at the wreckage while inertia has taken over. Dreadful. And Betts ain’t making nearly as much money as he thought if he doesn’t turn it around, both at the plate and in the field. Full disclosure, I’ve never been a big fan of MB; good player but he’s not Mike Trout in terms of consistency and overall talent. He has many holes in his coverage of the plate as a hitter and is not a particularly smart base-runner.

  11. Thank you Vicki, Sue, and Tom for the birthday wishes!!!
    I’ve been thinking the most memorable weather events I experienced in last 35 years
    Blizzard of 2013 with 30 inches of snow where I am and people having use snow blowers on their street to be able to get out and those huge snow banks. The overnight severe weather outbreak in February 2016 with all those widespread damaging wind reports.
    Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 The October Nor’easter in 2011 with the biggest October snowfall on record and the biggest amount of power outages in CT history Tropical storm Irene in August 2011 April Fools Blizzard of 97 the winter of 95-96 which ended up being the snowiest winter on record including the January 96 blizzard the March 93 Superstorm and my first weather memory the severe weather outbreak on July 10, 1989 with numerous tornado reports in the Northeast and still to this day the biggest severe weather outbreak in my life here.

    1. Bob and Gloria were in there but I suspect you were too young to remember Gloria..maybe not Bob? Interesting how many of the big events happened in the 2000s.

      I am willing to bet your mom recalls the heat of the summer of 1983. And also the storm in Late March – a date I can’t remember but TK always corrects when I say March 28 – where we lost power here. You were about to arrive in the world and my son arrived less than two weeks before.

  22. Thank you all for the kind birthday wishes! I’m sure JJ can attest to this, having a birthday this time of year I’ve eaten birthday cake in shorts on the deck in summer like heat, and inside with the heat on watching the snow fall outside, and everything in between. Unfortunately the shorts and deck may have to wait until next year.

    1. I remember it snowing on my birthday in April 97 having a heat wave on my birthday in April 2002. This is my first birthday in a couple years where the sun did not come out.

  26. A wintry feel out there today. Looks, feels and tastes like snow, if anything. Spring means very little around here.

  27. Crazy busy day just stopping in to say happy bd to JJ & SC before it becomes a belated wish! 😉

  29. Gorgeous here in Luray VA. Sunny and 82 on the car thermometer. Feels like summer!

    Hope you’re having a great birthday JJ and SC!

    1. A little birdie told me someone in VA is having a birthday tomorrow!! Lots of awesome celebrating going on this week!

  32. Happy birthday JJ and South Central!

    81 with a summer feel here in Mt. Laurel NJ. For the past month, we might as well have been on a different planet than SNE. 60+ just about every day, 70+ many days, and now starting to rack up the 80s.

  33. TV folks backing off on the rain totals because…..the models say so.

    Where have we heard this before? 😉

    1. I am not sure what they could do when they have to get a forecast out days ahead. Do you have suggestions if you were in their shoes?

      1. Yes, wording it the way I did, except on the air. It’s completely possible. Harvey actually did it. They are just reacting to model #’s. They’ve been doing it over and over and getting screwed over and over in the process. WxW, JMA, SAK, and I talk about this on a regular basis. I suspect it has to do with the pressure they are under to get stuff out to multiple sources are multiple times. I think because of that, the forecasts are suffering.

        There is one exception to the people that I saw on air. One of the mets other than Harvey was very vocal in his doubting of the prolific model forecasts yet expressed uncertainty as well, just was heavily leaning toward fewer hours of rain and no “wash out” and much less than the 2 and 3 inch type amounts the guidance was spitting out. I notice it tends to be the younger and more inexperienced ones in the local area that tend to buy model amounts and timing. One of them was showing a futurecast and literally talking about individual showers and their locations well over 24 hours in advance. That immediately will give people false expectations. I’m not sure why why it’s difficult for them to keep from doing that, but many of them seem to have that issue. 🙁

        1. To me they worded very carefully. And we know we’re spot on for the storms this winter…except the one everyone missed.

          I am positive forecasts suffer due to pressure. Guess this just confuses the hell out of me.

          1. Yes the winter was excellently handled for the most part. I completely agree with that.

            1. Makes sense. I’ve had a week of those. I listened to and posted the major Mets forecasts. They were excellent. I don’t watch others since I have whw.

              My view is not a surprise. It is a must to critique. Without it, there would be no improvement. But…..

              I don’t have to finish that, do I 😉

  35. SSK my current thought is that you get through most of if not the entire day Saturday with just a few passing light showers and otherwise rain-free conditions.

    I know there have been advertisements of 1-3 inch washouts this weekend but it’s not going to happen like that.

  36. TK, my family and I are doing the Minutemen’s Pursuit hike with a group of Boy Scouts from North Bridge in Concord to Prospect Hill then catching the train back to Concord from North Station. We are starting at 0715AM and will be in Boston around 630PM. What are your thoughts of any shower activity or drizzle along the way? Possible timing? Was wondering if needed to pack ponchos. A quick shower or two is no big deal but prolonged stuff me be an issue. Thanks for all you do…..

  37. I believe it’s Cambridge. From North Bridge to Prospect Hill is 17.5 miles then 2.5 more to North Station for a total of 20 miles. It’s going to be quite a walk!

    1. Yikes. 20 miles. I am not familiar with prospect hill in Cambridge. I’ll look it up. I’ll be thinking of you. How proud you must be to be celebrating the day the shot was heard round the world and what a memory for you and the scouts.

  38. It’s the actual date that the Minutemen pursed the British from North Bridge to Boston. We’re stopping at a few sights along the way through Lexington. This is going to be a memorable adventure!

  39. Thanks Vicki! I will try to let you all know how it went when we get back. If my knees survive that is…

  40. Actually I believe it’s Prospect hill Park and is in Somerville. A website called “ live and let hike” has a good article on it. I can’t wait to see it along with all the other sights!

  41. That link you posted is the exact map that we are using tomorrow. I hope to learn so much more about that day. We live in such an amazing area!

  43. Received a cool book from my wife as a gift. Not sure if anyone here has read it. It’s written by Brantley Hargrove titled “The man who caught the storm” it’s about the life of storm chaser Tim Samaras. Looks like it will be a good read.

  44. WxWatcher thanks for the birthday wishes!!!
    Vicki I am a Jeopardy fan and having been watching this amazing run for our current champion James who has won 10 games and broke is own one day record yesterday winning 131,127. I DVRD it since I was out for my birthday so I am going to go watch now to see if James winning streak continues.

  45. Diamond… Low risk of a couple passing showers. I think that entire period should be largely rain-free and quite mild.

  49. This may be the first time the issuance time were reversed digits the day after the previous. 7:38 .. 8:37.

    Anyway, new post!

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