Friday Forecast

72 Comments

8:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)
Warm sector weather, as expected, for the next couple days. It means lots of clouds, and occasional threats for passing rain showers too. However, still not expecting any wash-out weather as in long lasting rains. We do increase the shower threat from west to east during Saturday and Saturday night as a weakening cold front crosses the region. This front should get just far enough east of the region to reduce the rain shower chance during Sunday, though this may not be true for Cape Cod. However, the parent low from this series of fronts (the warm front that went by yesterday and the cold front moving through this weekend) is going to cut off and drift across the region Monday with more unsettled weather. This has been an expected occurrence for a few days, but I think it may have a little more impact left for us than I thought on my update 24 hours ago. One other change I am going to make is hold back on bringing that cooler high pressure area closer to the region Tuesday. What this does is keep us milder, but still unsettled.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of passing rain showers. Highs 58-63 South Coast, 63-68 just inland from the South Coast and south-facing portions of the eastern MA coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Lows 53-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers but more numerous rain showers arriving west to east during the afternoon hours. Highs 61-68 except 55-62 South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with rain showers likely mainly eastern areas. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with isolated rain showers thereafter. Highs 63-70, cooler South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 55-62 coast, 61-68 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 55-62 coast, 61-68 interior. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)
Additional wet weather possible April 24 and again later April 27-28. Temperatures near to above normal, but quick cool shot possible end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29-MAY 3)
Fair, milder early period, a period of unsettled weather may start May off as it trends slightly cooler. Continued low confidence forecast.

72 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    Glad to see southern New England sharing in the warmth !

    70F with a 64F dewpoints here, howling south wind.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Pretty toasty out there.

    Happy Birthday Mark!!
    Just remember, they start coming faster and faster as you get older.

    At my age, time is on FAST FORWARD as I can’t believe how fast it ticks by.

  5. Happy Birthday Mark!!!
    Your Islanders gave you an early birthday gift the other night with a sweep of the Penguins. Will see how far they go in the playoffs.

  6. Thanks TK!

    Amazing how so many birthdays all of a sudden. Happy birthday Mark!

    Obviously many people are born in the spring. Mine isn’t until late November. Is TK’s birthday coming up soon as well?

    Vicki, yes I am a Jeopardy fan! Looking forward to tonight to see if the sports gambler continues his run. He obviously has the signaling button down pat. Lately the questions have been relatively easy, almost general knowledge type.

  7. Thank you, TK…
    Happy Birthday, Mark. Enjoy your day!

    Sacred time of the year for many with Passover at sunset tonight, and Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Blessings on all for a special time with family and friends.

  11. Thanks TK and thanks everyone for the birthday wishes!

    It’s another warm one down here in the mid Atlantic today and quite humid with temps in the 70s. We are heading into DC this PM. Looks like we’ve got some heavy rain and thunderstorms moving in later and flood watches are out. This will be a good day to do the museums. Glad we had the sunny weather yesterday for Shenandoah. The views were spectacular!

  12. Thanks TK, and happy birthday Mark!

    Big development this morning: The Tropical Cyclone Report for 2018’s Hurricane Michael has been released, and has determined that Michael was a Category 5 hurricane at landfall in Florida last October. This makes Michael just the fourth recorded hurricane to strike the United States as a Category 5, and the first since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

    2. Thank you WxW.

      Just saw that headline. Seeing the catastrophic damage near where the eyewall made landfall, it does not shock me. Everything was absolutely leveled.

  14. TK I owe you an apology. It is no secret that I am not fond of criticizing mets on social media. My view is that you should go directly to the source. But then I disagreed with you using the same format and that is just as wrong. Next time I’ll message you privately. I bet you can hardly wait 😉

    I am sorry.

  15. Plenty of spring bdays but August is still the month that leads the pack with the most births.

    Vicki you don’t owe me an apology. My issue is not really so much with the mets themselves but the system in place that is forcing them to do what they have to do on air. It’s less efficient, and they seem to be forced to just take the model forecasts more than ever, and then adjust as the models adjust. Forecasting in the model age has never been about just what the model says, but using the tools available as guidance, and using meteorology to figure out what you feel is most likely. I think we have a great group of weather media in this market, probably the best in the country, at least in the top 5. I’ll mention one name here. I’m not sure if Kevin L. just went with this on his own but 2 days ago he was talking very much how he thought the model #’s and placement were not quite right, emphasizing that despite what the model consensus was he thought that the axis of heavier showers would hold back to the west out of Boston and the amounts would be somewhat lower overall. Maybe it’s because they gave him a full 5 minutes on that weathercast and he had time to do it. I just wish they could all express things that time doesn’t allow. It’s almost these days like some of these weathercasts are almost being scripted by someone else. I don’t think it’s quite to that point, honestly, but it’s almost becoming similar to that because of the constraints and the demand to entertain as well as inform.

  16. 12z 3km NAM is down to under 0.75 inch for most of the region through late Saturday evening, and under 0.50 for a portion of that. This is the model correction I’ve been waiting for. Still a little bit of a wild card on when that axis of most numerous showers propagates through eastern MA (Boston area). HRRR wants to do it a bit earlier, NAM a bit later. In fact, NAM likes the heaviest shower threat for Boston Sunday morning right now.

  17. We have four August birthdays in our family, five June, two March, three April, one Oct, July, and two November

    We all know June is the month, however 😈

  19. This forecast is why I always feel so badly for New England high school and college spring sport athletes. So many games postponed by rain, and when you get to the end of the season they are playing every day to make up what they missed.

    1. You haven’t lived until you spend a day at a horse show in the rain…..holding a wet horse, trying to keep him dry while also keeping rider dry, not to mention tack, and then watching both canter the course in mud 🙂

      Oddly, as I type, I remember that they are some of my fondest memories.

  20. I been really busy this week and haven’t been on here posting as much. First happy birthday Mark. For those I missed yesterday happy birthday…… Now to my 2019/2020 winter early prediction. Very snowy with well above avg snowfall and below normal temps because I won’t be in New England next winter as I been accepted to the marine and environmental graduate program at the university of the Virgin Islands. Just need to figure out logistics. 🙂

    1. Congrats Matt!! That will be exciting and rewarding. But I have to disagree with your prediction. I don’t think you’ll miss much of a winter. 😉

    2. That is awesome. They are lucky to have you and it will be a tremendous education and experience for you.

    1. Perfect mark. Lots of middle schoolers down there with you. Also, Macs twin and wife are there spending time with their youngest who works on the hill.

      1. Nice. The museums are mobbed today. And it’s now pouring so everyone is inside. We have had some wind but nothing severe….at least yet.

        1. Hope rain stops and you can return to being out and about. Glad wind not bad. It’s crazy here

  27. Diamond, as forecast by TK, sure seems to have had nice walking weather.

    Sun is out on and off here now

    1. It’s a glorious day! Thank you TK! We’re at Cambridge line trecking towards prospect park in Somerville. Well, back to hiking!

  28. They sounded alarms and and corralled everyone away from the doors here at the Museum of American History when the NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning. It was an interesting sight. Warning was cancelled but looks like the main event comes later on with the next wave. Multiple tornados on the ground right now in NC.

      1. I think it was an over abundance of caution and probably standard protocol. We’ve had some heavy rain and thunder but that’s been the worst of it so far.

        The low dark gray clouds are racing along right above us. Strong low level jet and I’m sure that’s playing into the tornado threat.

  29. Of the 3 days coming up (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday), the wettest day overall will be Monday.

    1. That would be Easter Monday. When my mother was in school, that was a day off. Many eons ago. 🙂

      1. Interesting. Easter is not a federal holiday but can be a state holiday. I can’t say as I recall Easter Monday

  30. Congrats and Good Luck Matt!

    And thanks Debby Downer as always! At least I won’t get my hopes up for the 2019-20 winter in advance. 😉

  31. Tom, where are you at? Tornado warnings are not near coast and I don’t think theyll make it there but they are inching east.

    Sorry. I’m a worrier

  33. Philip, Vicki, Easter Monday is a holiday in every other Western country I know. I’m surprised it’s not a holiday here, especially given the holiday’s significance. Easter and Passover are more significant holidays – they convey the meaning of Christianity and Judaism, respectively – than Christmas and Hanukkah. And, you’re hearing this from a person with not much religiosity.

    Congratulations, Matt! Hopefully you can steer some Atlantic lows our way next winter. I’m hoping TK is wrong about next winter, by the way, but I should know better than to doubt him.

    I think I predicted Boston (Logan) would get 27 inches this past year. Or, am I hallucinating? If so, I guess even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes.

    Happy Birthday, Mark!

    And, thank you, TK, for your forecasts.

    For all you soccer fans out there (I don’t think there are that many at WHW), here’s the ultimate pre-game warm-up, a man (Diego Maradonna) possessed by truly incredible technique:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7ZjU-6iSwk

    3. Complicated guy Maradonna, but the most talented player ever. I have his Argentina jersey in my closet.

      1. I have felt that the bruins had the better chance of going all the way. I am not much of a basketball watcher.

  38. I wrote “new post” but never actually sent it. You’ve all found it by now though. 😉

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