Saturday Forecast

43 Comments

8:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)
A frontal boundary lingering nearby and a passing disturbance keeps rain showers scattered in the region this morning before a little push of high pressure from the north sends drier air into the region this afternoon, not really clearing the sky too much but ending the rain shower threat. Now there remains some bad news / good news regarding this pattern. The bad news is the parade of weather systems continues for now and that sends the next wet weather system toward the region for Sunday, although the most significant rainfall from this wave of low pressure will fall to the south of I-90 (The Mass Pike), while to the north the period of rainfall may be of somewhat shorter duration. And then a bit of a change. High pressure from Canada slides down into the region Monday, which is going to be a very nice spring day. The sinking of high pressure to the south and the approach of a cold front from the northwest may sound like “uh oh here comes more rain” upon first read but it’s actually going to help create a fabulous day for most of the hours of it, the clouds and threat of rain showers probably holding off until at least the very end of the day, if not at night, then progressing northwest to southeast across the area. Another Canadian high pressure area is expected to bring cooler but again fair weather for the end of this period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast morning with patchy fog and scattered to isolated rain showers diminishing west to east. Mostly cloudy this afternoon but some breaks of sun possible especially northern half of MA and southern NH. Highs 53-60 coast, 61-68 interior. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain favoring areas west and and south of Boston toward dawn. Lows 45-52. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain much of the day southern MA southward and a shorter period of rain favoring late morning to late afternoon northern MA and southern NH. Highs 55-62 except cooler coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain ending evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 56-63 coast, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable with sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62 Cape Cod, 63-70 other coastal areas, 70-77 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)
We’re seeing a shift to less frequent systems while still having an active pattern. Wet weather threat comes late May 9 and May 10 from a broad low pressure area. A minor system may threaten at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)
Feeling the medium range models don’t have a great handle on the pattern evolution. For now I’m on the lookout for a cut off low somewhere but uncertain as to whether it happens at all, and if so, how it impacts our weather. Will re-evaluate this again tomorrow. Initial feeling is that we start this period dry, end it dry, and see some wet weather in between.

43 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. According to Barry, another awful weekend in store next week starting with Friday and beyond. I hope that scenario changes.

    1. He didn’t say the weekend would like that, and he said late Thursday & Friday, which is not the weekend. I saw the weathercast. 🙂 If I had to place a bet, I would say next weekend looks nice.

      1. Thanks TK. I have been seeing a nice weekend advertised too. The last completely dry weekend was March 16th-17th.

    2. Because of the “high stakes” Mother’s Day forecast some media
      Outlets will tease the possibility of another weekend that’s an “ice cold, miserable washout” all week long

  5. The best thing about this pattern is that every morning I wake up and see the clouds and/or rain and I just shrug. It’s become part of my existence. 🙂

    1. That might be the second best thing. You hit the nail on the head the other day when you said you could put your feet on the ground. Paraphrasing..sorry… to me, it was the best positive mentioned. I figure my existence is the best thing. 🙂

  6. Thanks TK.

    So much for the miss tomorrow that some of the models were advertising. The NAM, which had trended bone dry yesterday afternoon, now looks quite wet tomorrow again, especially Pike south. Another good lesson in not blindly reacting to one or two model runs.

    1. See my comment yesterday about waiting a couple runs before making any significant forecast changes…

  8. I’m going to visit Wicket Tulips Flower Farm in Johnston RI on Monday afternoon. Had to pick what I thought would be a good weather day 5 to 7 days in advance (had to choose between Monday & Wednesday). They both look good, but I went with Monday. 🙂

  9. TK – Perhaps Barry changed his outlook for next weekend in later newscasts because I watched his first two and he definitely had 49 temp with “showers and mist” for Friday and stated into at least Saturday. The segment did not end well to say the least as the newscasters let out one massive “groan” together after hearing about next weekend which discouraged me too.

    Anyway, I hope you’re right about next weekend. 🙂

  10. Barry also mentioned on air that he thought earlier the pattern would be changing by now.

  13. If I read his twitter post correctly, Barry pointed out that a year ago today, it hit 90F and he recounted how many 90F days there were last summer and that he wasn’t expecting as many this summer.

    I’m interested to see his prediction.

    Everything I’ve seen for this summer seems to project above avg temps, so I’ll be curious to see what number he predicts and what analog years he’s focusing on.

    1. I suppose technically we can have above avg. temps and still stay under 90F each day. We will see.

    1. That is indeed such a sad song. Brings tears every time I hear it. One of my favorites is Leader if thr Band. We had most all of his albums. Macs sister who just passed would see any of his concerts in either cities where she lived or on her overnights if he was in town. She had the pleasure of meeting him a couple of times.

      So many lost far too soon. Thank you for sharing these

      1. You’re welcome. I am glad I got to see him play live in Boston once. It was a large venue on the harbor but it was just him, solo, no band. You’d think that would be hard to pull off in a larger place, but he had no problem filling that outdoor space with music and emotion, and even made a joke to a boat off to the side in the water when he yelled “Hey, you in the boat! You owe me $65!” 😉

      2. I heard Leader of the Band this morning on SiriusXM. One of many great songs by him!

    2. LOVE Dan Fogelburg. Never upset when they sneak in one of his songs on “70’s on 7” on Sirius.

  16. Trends in medium range today are definitely drier in terms of longer periods between unsettled weather systems. We’re not going to get rid of unsettled weather systems during the spring. I think we all know that. It’s our climate here.

    Another thing I am starting to see less of are signs of a cut off potential down the road as I had been worried about. We’ll see if this continues to be the case.

    Yes this weekend is still rather sunless, cool, and at times wet, but after some early clouds and dampness, Monday turns stellar. Tuesday is warm with an evening shower otherwise dry. Wednesday is dry, cooler. Thursday looks dry right now and the next system may be delayed so it fits into one calendar day on Friday. A quick glance ahead to next weekend looks mainly dry but on the cooler side, still not bad if we get some sun at this time of year, which is getting within 6 to 8 weeks of its highest angle of the year.

      1. I think the system is slower arriving but also a little further north when things work themselves out. Saturday still would be drier, just probably breezy & cool.

        But it’s a week away so much to follow regarding the end of the week scenario.

  17. Anyone havw choices. TK? Mine are…

    Win – 7 maximum security
    Place – 16 Game Winner
    Show – Code of Honor

    1. Absolutely the most disgusting display I have ever seen in sports and the horse world. And my oldest road at the A level. The 20 horse was not impeded in any way. You can clearly see the 7 horse spook and the jockey correct him. It may have impeded the 1 horse but he was never going to win. So 20 used another horse to literallyback into a win.

  21. I have never seen anything like that in my life in watching any of the triple crown horse races. 65-1 shot Country House wins the Derby which is the second biggest odds to win the Derby the first ten years ago Mine That Bird.

    1. Ask me if he won fairly. Not even close. But then maybe that’s the only way he will ever win

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