Sunday Forecast

45 Comments

8:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)
Low pressure passes south of the region today, a wet day but wettest along and south of I-90, with lighter and more intermittent rain to the north. High pressure moves in for a nice Monday, then sinks to the south and allows a cold front from Canada to approach Tuesday, which may trigger some showers as it passes through during the afternoon and evening, although it will end up being the warmest day of this 5-day period. Another Canadian high moves in for midweek with more excellent weather. The next system will approach later Thursday, increasing the rain chances again, but we’re starting to see longer periods of time between jet stream disturbances as we enter pattern transition.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain much of the day southern MA southward and a shorter period of rain favoring late morning to late afternoon northern MA and southern NH. Highs 55-62 except cooler coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain ending evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Lingering clouds southern areas early, otherwise becoming mostly sunny. Highs 63-70 except 56-63 coast, coolest Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable with sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers southern NH and northern MA by mid to late afternoon. Highs 55-62 Cape Cod, 63-70 other coastal areas, 70-77 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers ending from northwest to southeast. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43 interior valleys, 43-50 elsewhere with mildest urban centers. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 58-65, cooling back along the coast. Wind light SE.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)
Wet weather threat from a jet stream disturbance May 10. A cold front may bring a few showers May 12 but much of the May 11-12 weekend looks dry. More fair weather for the end of the period with a warm-up possible by May 14.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)
Still uncertainty here… The pattern evolution has several possibilities including a cut-off low somewhere nearby. Feeling however that this may occur further south or even well offshore and we end up in a continued progressive but slightly less active jet stream flow. Systems in this flow my bring showers early and again late in the period.

45 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Red Sox are now 2 games under 500 and have won 7 out of their last 10. They also have closed their gap fo runs scored vs. runs allowed down to -7 from the -30’s and 40’s early on, which is a key stat to show both the offense and pitching are coming around.

  5. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    1) How many hurricanes occurred last year? (I think they mean Atlantic.)

    A. 1
    B. 5
    C. 8
    D.12

    Not the best worded question. Answer later today.

    2. If I recall correctly, it’s C, 8, and probably more than we will see in 2019.

        1. I’m pretty sure there were 15 named storms, 8 of which reached hurricane strength.

    1. Today is one of few days in Sutton that we have had some actual rain for an hour or so and then drizzle for rest of day. I’ve had a blast dancing around kitchen go the Beatles pandora station and cooking in my new, fun smaller dishes for cooking for one. Three six inch quiches, one six inch chocolate cream pie and working on an orzo salad now for lunches this week.

  10. Nice Sox 8th inning with 7 runs including a Bogaerts grand slam and 9 hits spread out pretty well across the lineup in the game.

    1. Not bad for a team that was declared dead & buried by virtually all of the local media, especially sports talk hosts, and a good percentage of its fan base, after the first 3 weeks of the season. 😉

      1. Did someone say they are better starting slowly? For me it is even a bit soon soon. I’d have waited a while longer but good for them

          1. Not always the rule. But they have been called the comeback kids more than once

            Either way, the “fans” will gather around again

      2. Yup. They also gave their starters an easy spring training, so in a sense they were still in spring training the first few weeks :).

  11. Answer to AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    1) How many hurricanes occurred last year? (I think they mean Atlantic.)

    A. 1
    B. 5
    C. 8
    D.12

    The answer is C, 8.

    1. I cannot take it out of my period 3 forecast right now. I just have a feeling…

      1. I don’t blame you. Really interesting pattern we’ve gotten into with the AO/NAO way down in the tank, and not going anywhere. Can’t recall the last time we saw the NAO this negative. Budding +PNA to boot. No way we’re getting any sustained warmth til all that changes.

  13. Caribou, ME had a beautiful, sunny day today with a high temp of 68F in the 4 to 5 pm hour.

    1. Pretty sure Toronto, Montreal and most of southern Canada had that 65-70F sunny day as well.

    2. Meanwhile, an absolute gullywasher here in the mid-Atlantic. Widespread 1-2.5″, locally 4″+ outside Allentown, PA in the past 24 hours. Our temperatures have crept down all day, falling slowly through the 50s.

      This is such a classic case of suppression. And it’s very El Nino like. Something we saw very little of even though we expected to see more of it this past winter. A lack of systems like this is why the predictions for above normal snow for the mid-Atlantic busted, and why the lower forecasts for SNE were generally better but IMO not really for the right reasons.

      1. So WxWatcher. Do you agree with TKs potential pattern change to more sustained warmth with drier conditions commencing between May 15-20. With the orientation of the +PNA and -NAO, that transition doesn’t seem to even appear on the radar.

        1. Well, I’ve talked several times about how the models love to drag these -NAOs out way too long. In this case, it will be a long and drawn out -NAO (which, ironically, the models didn’t really capture until it was staring us in the face). But it’ll be hard pressed to stay this way beyond mid month. So I think there will at least be relative improvement by then, in the sense that the large scale pattern won’t be so unconducive to warmth. Too early to say much beyond that.

          And while the next two weeks look cool, they aren’t necessarily all that wet. A good deal of that will hinge on the evolution days 7-10. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the next 10-15 days come in with just near normal rain.

        2. That was TK’s cautiously optimistic feeling with the caveat that it can blow up in our faces. 😉

  16. Pouring here in northern CT tonight. Rained most of the morning and early PM, albeit mostly light, then dried out for a bit mid to late PM. Now the heaviest rain of the day is occurring. We are up to 0.50” on the day and 0.86” for the first few days of May. This following 9.23” for the month of April!

    1. Looks headed this way Mark. My accu is off line …no idea why and have no time to deal with it so I don’t have a clue what our monthly total would be. We just jumped to 0.14 for day

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