Tuesday Forecast

54 Comments

7:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)
Not making any significant forecast changes on this update. Quick warm day today but clouds move in and eventually a shower and potential thunderstorm threat as a cold front approaches, then passes through the region tonight. This sets up another nice but cooler day tomorrow. Broad low pressure approaches Thursday, which starts dry and ends wet, and makes Friday another wet day, but it is gone by the start of the weekend when another area of cool high pressure will move in.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms northern and western areas by mid to late afternoon. Highs 55-62 Cape Cod, 63-70 other coastal areas, 70-77 interior. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers with a risk of thunder southern and eastern areas evening. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny except partly sunny South Coast. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly cloudy South Coast. Lows 36-43 interior valleys, 43-50 elsewhere with mildest urban centers. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Late-day rain west to east. Highs 58-65, cooling back along the coast. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 47-54. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 48-55 coast, 55-62 interior. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering off. Patchy fog and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)
High pressure brings fair weather May 12. Low pressure brings rain May 13. High pressure brings fair weather May 14. A system passing to the north sends clouds and a rain shower threat into the region May 15 into May 16 before clearing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)
The forecast remains low confidence, but one change I am starting to see is that low pressure may evolve away from the region and high pressure closer to this area bringing a greater chance of prolonged fair weather. Still have to figure this out.

54 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank TK.
    Woodshill.net is now blocked here at work.
    I’ll have to see why. Of course, I can go in
    and unblock it, but I won’t.

    1. Curious. I wonder if it is because it is not secure. We had been blocked by two clients until we upgraded to https

  6. Thanks, TK…
    33 this morning on the Vineyard; 35 at the East Taunton airport; 36 at my house.
    I love days when the temp doubles in eight hours! Nice warm-up!

    I am not a huge Bruins fan, but, boy, was that a fun game last night!!! Hot goaltenders, like hot pitching in baseball, get you far in the playoffs!

    1. The saying in Hockey is a hot goalie could take you all the way . I am not a Rask fan but he right now is playing lights out hockey & it’s consistent. I loved seeing him get the shutout . If the bruins stay healthy & Rask continues his dominant performance in net they might be unstoppable. Time will tell

      1. A LOT more than what can be said for the Celtics who are clearly ready to pack it in for the summer for soggy golf courses. 😉

        This nice run seems very similar like Tim Thomas had back in 2011. We will see. 🙂

        I was listening to Celtics postgame 98.5 and there was talk of Kyrie going to the Knicks next season. What is that all about?

  8. It is amazing how full of new surprises spring can be. The hummers are back and hovering around the feeder on our deck. Daughter got a photo of two spectacular orioles in a tree next door. I have a feeder on order for them. The bluebirds ate the meal worm/seed block I put out in about three days but are not interested in our bluebird house yet. And the red wing blackbirds are chattering and chasing any other birds away that get in their path. I hear the goldfinches but they ate all of the thistle seed.

    It is astounding how many beautiful colors and sizes we find in nature.

  11. Models today look to be continuing the theme of delaying the onset of precipitation with the next system. Looking at the 12z GFS/FV3/NAM/CMC/ICON, all of Thursday and Thursday night may end up dry in most of SNE with rain not starting towards closer to daybreak Friday.

  12. There is not a lot of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) for thunderstorms to get strong or severe where they form. If there was higher CAPE the timing of the front today we would be on the look out for some of those storms to be on the stronger side.
    I can’t believe next Wednesday will be one year since four tornadoes touched down in CT. Sleeping Giant State Park in Hamden CT is still closed due to the tornado that hit that part of Hamden.

  14. Mark I drove in the towns of Southbury and Oxford a few days after the EF1 tornado hit. A lot of trees down some tarps on roofs and one home where trees were all around the house.

    1. I drove by Sleeping Giant State Park, a place where I have hiked many times, a few weeks after the tornado hit and was shocked at the damage. Complete tree carnage. Didn’t even look like the same place. I’m not surprised it is still closed.

      I suppose it was a blessing in disguise the tornado crossed the forested state park instead of the Quinnipiac University campus which is directly across the street!

      1. https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ICUkErZmucA/maxresdefault.jpg

        https://s.hdnux.com/photos/73/30/12/15565442/3/920×920.jpg

        https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&id=D211A9EE8E6BD9C7301733335540F9BA89D44EE3&thid=OIP.fAgfbQIIPuA_pgm84JA1ZgHaE5&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.uspa24.com%2Ffiles%2Falben%2F33goisckqixciky9iu4x.jpg&exph=529&expw=800&q=Tornado+Sleeping+Giant+State+Park+CT&selectedindex=26&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&eim=1,2,6&ccid=fAgfbQII&simid=608004434058349926

        A woman from Meriden actually got stuck at the lookout tower and captured this incredible shot of the approaching storm…

        https://media.nbcconnecticut.com/images/963*349/CF807114-8F08-4305-9CBE-6A354CD965BB.JPEG

  15. Everything came together that day for a severe weather event to happen. We had an EML (elevated mixed layer) in place and to me when that is in place we tend to have our bigger severe weather events.

    1. About what I thought would happen today, honestly. Best support is southeastern interior NY and western CT. That is typical for this time of year.

  17. Onset of precipitation, as hinted at, may be delayed Thursday. In fact, it may never get here during the calendar day if the current trend continues. In addition, the entire “event” is looking less and less impressive to me with time.

    We could end up with a good soaking around next Monday, but we are definitely starting to stretch out the time between systems.

    Today I have started to notice some hints of what could be a major change in the pattern, but as often is the case, these can show up and then vanish, only to come back later when the pattern actually starts to flip. Will monitor. I’m not going to go into details because 1) It’s uncertain, 2) It’s uncertain, and 3) It’s uncertain. 😉

    1. Can we stay dry for Mother’s Day? Some models say yes, others a washout according to Harvey.

  18. Joshua…Much better luck to your Ajax than my Barça. Luck (or lack of it) had nothing to do with it. Liverpool throttled Barcelona today to reach the European finals. FCB did not learn their lesson from last year when they blew a similar lead to Roma in the quarterfinals.

    1. I loved today. Perfect afternoon to get my lawn done with about an hour to spare before we got soaking showers. 🙂 Nice & warm today too, but not too bad for yard work, and I was in mostly black too .. hahaha!

  20. Thank you, TK.

    Yesterday and today were spectacular spring days.

    We can all be parochial – myself included – in our inward-looking sports world here in the U.S. But, we all need to be reminded that a lot goes on outside our country in the world of sports can be a lot more interesting than watching Kyrie Irving implode. What happened today at venerable Anfield in Liverpool – a soccer stadium built in 1884 – was truly remarkable. I’m not a Liverpool fan, but to come back from a 3-0 loss at another venerable venue, Camp Nou in Barcelona, and win at home 4-0 in a Champion’s League semifinal is astoundingly incredible. Also, note, globally more people watched today’s semifinal (and tomorrow’s too) than watch the Superbowl. And about 3 to 4 times as many people watch a Champion’s League final than the Superbowl. You can increase that number to about 4 times for a European Cup final, and more than 8 times for a World Cup final.

    Watch as Liverpool fans and their heroes sing “You’ll never walk alone:” [by the way, John Henry is a brilliant investor, he owns Liverpool]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOFMov4RR_Q

  22. I wonder if anyone on the blog knows if there is a site that monitors temps for the Charles River.

    Charles River Paddle waits til temps hit 60 to open for business.

    Thank you.

  23. Beautiful shot of Mount Mansfield VT from Sunday. Some signs of spring with buds starting to emerge on the trees in the lower elevations but still looks like the dead of winter on most of the mountain….

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/59738825_10103725244856310_1964430479692136448_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_eui2=AeEUvv-Jd06cCd3LxSN9RQgES0e6V8vrRbZf2VFBhEHn-7hu5udFau-KykK1wa6sdufi4bov44uxrr1Sl5oT9XQzjXCDb1qE5C35lClxQrGdjg&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=5979debbb6e3861dd10238ca91f6fda9&oe=5D6BD945

    1. Thanks for the pic, Mark.
      I skied Sugarloaf Sunday and it was still loaded with snow. Lots of it.

      1. That’s great. I think some of these mountains could have gone longer but you just don’t get the interest or crowds this time of year.

        I may try and hit Killington on Sunday May 19th for one last day if the weather is good. I think they’ll make it two more weekends…after that, not so sure.

  24. Went back through Harvey’s weathercasts. He never said Sunday would be a wash-out. He said he’s not sure that time the rain will arrive and it can be anytime from as early as the morning hours to as late as the evening hours, so he’s splitting the difference and saying “afternoon”, with room for timing adjustments.

    1. For all practical purposes, that’s what I stated in my original statement. Please read it again. I am not disagreeing with you in the least.

  25. Congrats to your Bruins TK. I would have to say they are favorites to win the Cup now with all the other first place teams having been eliminated. Carolina will give them a run for their money though. They are a tough, scrappy team and much like the Toronto and CBJ series, it will not be easy.

    1. I am more worried about Carolina than I was either of the other 2 teams. But I have faith.

  26. I am rooting for the Dallas Stars to win tonight. If they win and get to the conference finals the Rangers will get another first round pick in 2020 as part of the Mats Zuccarello trade. We need a team President as Glen Sather is stepping down.

      1. LOL!!!
        I am hoping this Rangers rebuild won’t be long. This was the first full year of the rebuild and I said it will be 3-5 years before the Rangers are competing for a Stanley Cup. If they could do what the Yankees did and make this rebuild quicker I would be very happy. Speaking of the Yankees hats off to people stepping up with a lot of the team on the IL.

        1. I cant complain at all about how the Yankees have done so far given all the injuries. Lots of people picking up the load including Sanchez. He is fun to watch when he is on fire like he has been.

    1. 14 named storms but not that many hurricanes.

      I’m going to guess 2 named storms in June, 1 in July, 4 in August, 4 in September, 1 in October, 1 in November, and 1 in December (Nestor the long-eared Christmas hurricane – not sure how many people will get that one). 😉

      1. Nestor stands quietly in my manger every December.

        And van… what kind of V name is that.

    2. LOL at this response…..

      Juan Mariano‏ @IamthatrealJuan · 4h4 hours ago
      Replying to @NWSEastern

      Hurricane Imelda is going to steal billions from the US economy and flood the shores sweeping away thousands of shoes.

  29. Mark, thanks for sharing the picture of Greenleaf Hut, a favorite of mine. Interesting how in late October, early November it looks like that, too. Different light, of course. But the trees will have shed their leaves by then and the first snows will have fallen. In early May it’s mostly remnants of snow as the big melt continues. 6 months later, in early November, it’s the beginning of the snow build-up.

    1. You’re welcome! That loop hike is my favorite in the Whites and perhaps anywhere. Can’t beat the 360 views from the ridgeline and the series of waterfalls on the Falling Waters trail are awesome. It’s gotten too popular though now and the trails are frequently overcrowded.

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