Wednesday Forecast

45 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)
Upper level low pressure hangs around and a couple disturbances pass by during the next 3 days as we slowly transition out of the current pattern and toward a different one, which will arrive by the weekend as high pressure moves in with fair weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-47 interior/rural, 47-52 coastal/urban. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light NW to N with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)
Overall upper pattern evolves to put this area on the eastern side of a high pressure ridge, but still with the ability to pass some disturbances through the flow, so there may be episodes of showers to still watch for, but with overall milder temperatures on average. However coastal areas may be significantly cooler on some of these days.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)
High pressure should strengthen for a drier, warmer pattern, but with cooler coastal areas at times.

45 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. TK, on weather.us there is a EPS46 day model and the 5 day 850temp and 2m temp is showing no prolonged period of above avg temp and a bunch of periods of below normal. Do you agree with it or no? It also shows that the above avg temps are just to the south of us for the holiday weekend.

    1. The EPS 46 day is the product commonly referred to as the “Euro weeklies”. It’s as garbage in the summer as it is in the winter 🙂

  7. Thanks TK and Happy Birthday Longshot!
    It is hard to believe on year ago today four tornadoes touch down in CT. I remember a tornado warning issued for my area around 4:45 that afternoon and thankfully all I saw was heavy rain with the tornado just missing south of me. I remember driving through the towns of Southbury and Oxford that were hit by the tornado four days later and could not believe the damage the EF1 tornado left behind. We have not seen a severe weather event like since July 10, 1989.
    A good reading from Ryan Hanrahan about that day.
    http://www.ryanhanrahan.com/2018/05/20/may-15-2018-tornadoes-and-damaging-wind/

    1. That was a good read. Interesting about the various debris signatures.

      Excerpt:
      “What the heck is a tornado debris signature anyway? Dual polarization radar allows us to determine what kind of targets the radar beam is hitting. Whether it be big rain drops, small rain drops, big fluffy snowflakes, tiny snowflakes, hail, smoke particles, bugs or tornado debris – each target has a unique signature. In this case pieces of leaves and twigs were being lofted by the tornado into the storm’s updraft. This gave us clear evidence so we could confirm a tornado had touched down.”

  9. There seems to be a strange light emanating from the Eastern sky. I just cannot fathom what it might be??????????????????????????????

  10. OceanAir Ryan tweeted that Sunday two days prior that there was a potential for severe storms. The ingredients all came together and when that day came it was this could be the real deal and it was.

      1. When the Elevated Mixed Layer was present that to me is usually when we get our big thunderstorm days in SNE and sure enough it happened along with other factors such as wind shear.

  11. Thank you all for the wishes!! I am getting so much younger!!!

    The weekend looks nice. The only downside will be the very high pollen count, but all else looking great.

  12. Thank you, TK…
    Happy Birthday, Longshot!!!!

    “Ah, but I was so much older then, I’m younger than that now.”
    ~ Bob Dylan, “My Back Pages”

  13. Taunton data from the Summer of 2011…I think there was discussion here about how hot the Summer of 2011 was a couple of days ago…

    20 days of 90 or greater, including 14 in July.
    It was 90+ from July 16-July 23 (except July 18) with July 22 hitting 103, the second all-time maximum temperature ever recorded in Taunton and the hottest ever recorded at KBOX.

    It hit 92 on August 2 and never got 90 or greater again for the rest of the summer or autumn.

    1. Thanks, Captain. I believe that it was cold and drizzly well into June of 2011 also. Very similar to what we are having now.

      1. I also remember that July 22. My older daughter’s birthday and I believe we tried to eat outside.

  14. I heard a DJ on the radio this morning say that it has rained on 31 of the past 45 days.

    Also, according to Eric, this upcoming weekend will be the first dry one since St. Patrick’s Day.

    Are these statements accurate?

    1. Yes, it will be the first weekend without a trace of rain on at least one of the days since then.

  15. 12z GFS has a couple of warm sector surges into New England in the medium and long range (parts of Memorial Day Weekend). 850 mb temps of 15C, probably translates to 85F to 90F a day or two.

    Lets see if there is any agreement from the 12z EURO …….

  16. Looking at the cod site at the 12z GFS instability starts to build later next week into the Memorial Day weekend. When your seeing instability showing up usually and indicator of a warmer temperature regime.

  18. Well, it appears the 12z Euro keeps the northern extent of the big 500 mb ridge just southwest of New England. Perhaps this setup would be conducive to severe weather in ny state on the ridge’s ring of fire.

    Definitely the west coast storminess and trof will encourage an eastern ridge. Given the recent pattern, I wonder if the Euro projection of NW flow over New England, holding the heat just to our southwest, makes sense with the north latitude blocking we’ve been seeing.

  19. So yeah, I think we all know by now, this spring has been frequently wet, like 1983. It has also been not excessively wet, in terms of rain amounts, running just a little above normal, sorta kinda like 1983. 😉

    I am not ready to speculate that summer 2019 will be anything like summer 1983. If you don’t like heat, you better hope it isn’t. 😉

      2. I can still take the heat, but my wife absolutely dies in that
        shitty good for nothing HHH weather! Due the humidity, she
        practically stayed in the house cooped up in 3 rooms with AC all Summer.

  20. Parts of SNE hit 80 Monday and the first 90 degree reading will occur in the May 25-28 window. Mark it down! 😉

    1. Not looking forward to that 25-28 window but I guess it has to happen sooner or later. I hope there won’t be too many of “them”.

      1. what is likely gonna happen is that its going to warm up and due to the high amount of water this spring we are gonna get that humidity cranking

      2. I didn’t say HHH. I said first 90 degree temp. A lot of those come on very comfortable days too.

        We’ll just have to take whatever we get. This ain’t San Diego. 😉

        As soon as we warm up people will be complaining they’re too hot and want fall. But I’m used to that.

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