Thursday Forecast

55 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)
Drier air has helped clear things out to start today but cold air aloft still means that scattered instability showers may pop during the day, especially mid afternoon to early evening. Low pressure will track north of the region Friday and a warm front / cold front combo will bring a couple rain shower threats. High pressure moves in for great weather Saturday. Sunday, a warm front will cross the region with some cloudiness and perhaps a brief rain shower but otherwise Sunday-Monday end up mainly rain-free and mild to warm. A cold front should hold off until later Monday with the next threat of any wet weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mid afternoon on. Isolated thunderstorms with small hail possible. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated rain showers early. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-47 interior/rural, 47-52 coastal/urban. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a rain shower morning. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes, then S to SW 5-15 MPH later.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers or thunderstorms possible. Highs 65-72 coast, 73-80 interior. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)
Overall upper pattern evolves to put this area on the eastern side of a high pressure ridge, but still with the ability to pass some disturbances through the flow, so there may be episodes of showers to still watch for, but with overall milder temperatures on average. However coastal areas may be significantly cooler on some of these days.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)
High pressure should strengthen for a drier, warmer pattern, but with cooler coastal areas at times. We will still have to watch jet stream disturbances passing over the top of the ridge. Any of them strong enough can dig a temporary trough and bring some unsettled weather.

55 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  7. This feels like the beginning of that year…2003? Where it was like we had no summer…

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Today certainly started off as a beauty. Now let’s see how it turns out.

  10. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml#current

    Big spread on projected NAO about a week from now.

    I think the phase (negative vs neutral) of the NAO will largely effect if we get hot Memorial Day weekend. Neutral = ridge more likely to extend into New England, negative NAO = ridge more likely to be squashed to our southwest.

    I think the models are going to continue to flop back and forth on Memorial Day Weekend warmth until the NAO projection for that time period becomes less spread out.

      1. Actually this is showing avg precip and above normal temps for us, wetter than average NYC south.

  13. Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 · May 15
    Judah Cohen Retweeted Eric Fisher

    Warm #Arctic/#cold continents pattern is often thought of as a winter phenomenon only. But unusually late strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling has induced this #winter pattern in May with especially impressive Greenland blocking, cold and even #snow to the US and Europe.

    Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher

    Can see the impact major high-latitude blocking, particularly around Greenland, has been having this May. Allowing chilly air to spill into parts of the Lower 48 and Europe while the Arctic is unusually ‘warm’

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1128443612243681286

  14. Upgrades to the Euro coming next month………….

    ECMWF‏Verified account @ECMWF

    Get ready for next month’s upgrade of ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System #IFS46r1: Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger will give two webinars on 15 & 16 May to explain how it will improve forecasts and to present new data and graphical products. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2019/ecmwf-holds-webinars-june-upgrade-its-forecasting-system …

    1. Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue

      New ECMWF parallel (Cycle 46r1) data is available in real-time.

      Forecasters must acclimate themselves to the new system e.g. determine bias or hot/cold issues in extended range.

      At Day 10, extreme heat of 100°-107°F is in both op & parallel across S. Georgia (HRES 9-km)

      https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1129010729904988161

  17. K, one more post for today with a few more wintery shots from this week.

    This of a skier at Stowe VT after the 10″+ dumping Tuesday….

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2019_05/IMG_20190514_194854.jpg.8a3a48a7295bc773117a355af395fc0e.jpg

    And another cool shot from Stowe on Tuesday closer to the base. This shot goes to show you how big elevation plays a factor this time of year. A few hundred feet and a degree or two can be the difference between 3″ of snow and no snow…..

    https://i.imgur.com/rTCeHLH.jpg

    And it’s still winter in California as well. 10″ new snow and a powder day at Mammoth Mtn this AM!

    https://twitter.com/MammothMountain/status/1129032473474621445

  18. TK,

    You may see a Post from a guy in Georgia. He used to be my boss and is a good guy.
    Can you please approve?

    I will also send you an email. 🙂

    1. Will do.

      I’ve been buried in chaos and work the last couple of days so I’ll be catching up slowly.

      4. Hi Eddie from Georgia. You must have had fun working with JpDave. Welcome to a great weather blog!

  19. Really nice afternoon.

    The sea breeze is providing clear skies along the coastline.

    60F at the coast to 70F inland, this is great !

  20. Mark Ryan did a great job on his twitter page posting at the times the tornadoes struck a year ago and the radar images that went with them.

  24. Hello all! 12z gfs showing some decent severe weather potential for monday. Will see if it stays that way. Soundings looks impressive

    1. I’m getting new tires first thing in the morning, have the day off, and also celebrate a birthday that day. I wouldn’t mind a little chasing. 😛 Just got a brand new dash cam. 😉

  25. Will see but seeing some forecasts looking like a summer day Monday with 80s inland humidity and a chance for storms.

    1. Yes, that will be what Monday is like. But the 80s may occur right to the coast in eastern MA and NH.

  26. Looking at the dew points on the latest run of the GFS Monday could be the first day of 2019 where your going to feel that mugginess.

  27. I forgot about that until you mentioned that. In fact I said last Friday it feels a bit muggy for the first time this year.

    1. You just did it. So now that’s covered. 🙂

      They have a nice break now (which they can use) while the other series plays out. And no, the rest won’t make them rusty. It’ll have positive impact. They will be ready for the finals. I say it’ll be against the St. Louis Blues after the Blues beat the Sharks in 6 or 7.

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