Saturday Forecast

30 Comments

10:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)
High pressure provides beautiful weather today, but the pressure gradient between its center to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada will create a gusty breeze, and as sunshine heats the ground and evaporates moisture out of it from plenty of recent rainfall, this air rising into colder air aloft may help to develop some cumulus clouds which will float across the sky and blot out the sunshine at times, if they can overcome the dry air aloft. If these clouds do pop, they will be gone by evening but some higher clouds will arrive this evening and increase overnight ahead of an advancing warm front, and this may make your Sunday start on the cloudier side, with even a risk of a passing rain shower as the front lifts through, but the warm air will move in with more sun developing during the day, as it also turns out warmer with an increase in humidity levels as well. The next forecast dilemma is to figure out how much cloudiness and shower and possible thunderstorm activity will take place while we are in the warm sector, which will be around until a cold front arrives late Monday. I think a disturbance crosses the region with a shower and possible thunderstorm sometime Sunday night, but gets out of the way by early Monday, which will be largely rain-free, although the opportunity for a passing shower will be there, and then a more general shower and thunderstorm threat should occur late-day or early-night with the front. How much sun Monday? I think enough that some areas reach or exceed 80, but maybe not well into the range of 80-87 that I had on the previous blog, so I’m going to trim off the top part of that. Either way, Monday will be a preview of summer in comparison to much of our recent weather. Post cold front we get back to some nice spring weather Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as high pressure arrives from Canada, west of the region enough with low pressure offshore so we have a gusty breeze Tuesday, then tranquil but with sea breezes Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunshine, with a few passing clouds possible. Highs 58-65 Cape Cod, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with a slight risk of a passing rain shower northern MA and southern NH. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-67 Cape Cod, 68-75 elsewhere except 75-80 some interior locations by late-day. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny through most of afternoon with isolated showers possible. Mostly cloudy late-day with showers/thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast except cooler Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms early, followed by clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)
As discussed previously, I believe the pattern that evolves is one that puts the mean ridge of high pressure in the Great Lakes / Midwest area with troughs both to the west and east of it, but the eastern trough being far enough east that this area will often be on the drier side of the pattern overall. However, “ridge riders” or disturbances that come up and over the ridge can still bring episodic unsettled weather and are very hard to time. Right now, the favored timing for such disturbances passing through with shower or rain threats are May 24 and May 27. And “rain threats” does not necessarily translate into “rainy days” either. These systems can be weak, and fast, and produce very little, or they can dig a little more and produce a bit more rainfall. We’ll just have to keep an eye on the pattern for timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
Same general idea for the pattern but it may de-amplify some allowing a little more trough into New England before May ends, with a round of rain possible. I think the majority of this period will also be rain-free, with temperatures not all that far from seasonal averages.

30 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  5. re; Monday

    From the 12Z 3KM NAM tornado threat for Western MA and NW CT.

    Here is a Pivotal Weather sounding for a spot in NW Ct where it show a hazard
    of PDS (Particularly Dangerous Sitution) for Tornado.

    https://imgur.com/a/8wn9f6S

    Little or no threat to Eastern Sections.

  11. Really beautiful day today. I have noticed that throughout this less than stellar spring the nice days have been spectacular.

    TK, thanks for your forecast, and thanks for your reply to my post yesterday referencing sensationalism promulgated by news outlets. I agree wholeheartedly with you. It’s one of the reasons I miss the Don Kents of the world, but also longtime anchor Tom Ellis (sadly he recently passed away).

  16. Tonight’s baseball game should be must viewing to teach young players how NOT to play baseball. In every aspect of the game, the Red Sox have looked incompetent. I’m sure Cora sees this. They can’t field worth a lick this season. And the problem is everywhere on the field, in every position. Situational hitting is really bad. Same goes for situational pitching from most pitchers. It’s sad to see. I love baseball, and love the Red Sox, but I don’t suffer fools gladly when they’re being paid big bucks and have a lot more talent than they’re showing.

    1. I don’t watch. Not because I don’t like the Red Sox but because I’m just not interested. Do you think they are just off and need to find their synchro they don’t care how they play?

  17. I enjoyed the discussion from NWS Boston last night regarding severe potential tomorrow. I always smile when they reference their local studies, having contributed to them myself. It’s a very classic look for New England severe weather, certainly on the synoptic level. Even some evidence of a “dual jet” pattern with SNE in the left exit region of a strong jet streak over the Great Lakes but also the right entrance region of a weaker jet streak over the Canadian maritimes. This has happened in some of our more memorable events, i.e. the Revere tornado day. Closed H5 low over James Bay is another classic. Severe weather is a mesoscale phenomenon but I’m a big believer in giving solid weight to the synoptic environment when evaluating severe storm potential.

    Based on the surface winds the greatest threat looks to be along and north of the Pike and away from the immediate east coast, although given the frontal timing and a slight offshore component I would expect storms that form to survive to at least close to the coast. The south coast, forget about it. The most favorable kinematic environment might actually be up in central New England and Maine. But I think it’ll be an active day for most of New England, with all modes of severe weather possible but damaging winds being the greatest threat. I’d expect SPC to add a slight risk area, if not this afternoon then first thing tomorrow.

    One mitigating factor may be the mid-level lapse rates, which often seem to be a good delineator between higher end and more routine events. They aren’t terrible, but I’d label them as adequate at best. No EML.

    2. Excellent, TK. I’m assuming thisnfar south of pike fits into forget about it category.

      Thank you

      1. And clearly I am NOT awake. Thank you WxW. I actually knew that but type TK out of habit. My only excuse is only one sip of coffee so far.

        1. That’s a good excuse. I use it all the time. Caffeine is my drug of choice.

          I just saw your reply to my post on the Red Sox. Yes, they’re off, out of sync. While in recent weeks they got to win some games against inferior teams they’re clearly not right against the real competition – whether playing against the Yankees, Astros, Rays, or any other good team. I don’t think it’s a talent issue as much as their general sleepiness and laissez-faire attitude all season. And this attitude is not something we see in the Bruins or Patriots, and didn’t see last year in the Red Sox.

  18. 59 minutes earlier than yesterday, the new post is up!

    WxW I am going to repost your comment at the top of the comments on the new post. You actually wrote part of my discussion for me. Thanks! 😉

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