Sunday Forecast

114 Comments

9:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)
A warm front crosses the region this morning and will kick off scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, with most activity north of I-90 and a smaller area to the south. Once we get to afternoon the shower/storm threat drops off but the temperature and humidity go up. Another disturbance may bring a few showers/storms to the region tonight. When we get to Monday, most of the day in any given location will be rain-free, but we won’t be free of the risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, although the greatest threat comes later day / evening with a cold front passing through the region. The risk for severe storms is there, with some supporting factors and some not as supporting. (There will be a comment posted below from the last blog that adequately explains it in more detail.) Once we get the front through the region, the summer preview of Monday ends and it’s back to seasonable but very nice weather Tuesday and Wednesday, before the next system diving out of Canada brings a shower risk on Thursday.
TODAY: Variably cloudy morning with passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-67 Cape Cod, 68-75 elsewhere except 75-80 some interior locations by late-day. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny through most of afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstoroms possible. Mostly cloudy late-day with showers/thunderstorms possible. Any thunderstorms can be strong to severe. Humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast except cooler Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms early, followed by clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)
Wet weather may hang on early May 24 with departing low pressure. A cold front may produce a few showers around May 25 and another approaching system may bring a shower risk later May 27 but most of the Memorial Day Weekend, as far as I can tell in advance, looks dry. Additional showers possible May 28 depending on the speed of the passing system. Temperatures near to above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)
A little more west to east flow will allow a couple passing systems and shower/thunderstorms threats but the overall pattern should remain on the drier side most of the time with near to above normal temperatures.

114 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Reposted comment from the previous blog…

    WxWatcher says:
    May 19, 2019 at 8:48 AM

    I enjoyed the discussion from NWS Boston last night regarding severe potential tomorrow. I always smile when they reference their local studies, having contributed to them myself. It’s a very classic look for New England severe weather, certainly on the synoptic level. Even some evidence of a “dual jet” pattern with SNE in the left exit region of a strong jet streak over the Great Lakes but also the right entrance region of a weaker jet streak over the Canadian maritimes. This has happened in some of our more memorable events, i.e. the Revere tornado day. Closed H5 low over James Bay is another classic. Severe weather is a mesoscale phenomenon but I’m a big believer in giving solid weight to the synoptic environment when evaluating severe storm potential.

    Based on the surface winds the greatest threat looks to be along and north of the Pike and away from the immediate east coast, although given the frontal timing and a slight offshore component I would expect storms that form to survive to at least close to the coast. The south coast, forget about it. The most favorable kinematic environment might actually be up in central New England and Maine. But I think it’ll be an active day for most of New England, with all modes of severe weather possible but damaging winds being the greatest threat. I’d expect SPC to add a slight risk area, if not this afternoon then first thing tomorrow.

    One mitigating factor may be the mid-level lapse rates, which often seem to be a good delineator between higher end and more routine events. They aren’t terrible, but I’d label them as adequate at best. No EML.

  4. We just had a short lived burst of very heavy, very large raindrops. It started with a quick burst of ice pellets. I heard some screaming and thought the neighbors kids had been stuck in it.

    Turned out to be the turkey eating under our bird feeder. She was flapping her wings and screeching as loudly as she could.

    1. If she was calling for her mate, watch out! Those Tom turkeys can give you a good pecking. 😀

      1. Ha…indeed they can. Females can be quite aggressive also.

        It was definitely a reaction to the ice pellets. We have a nest again this year on hill behind house. Sam and his baby paraded along the ridge yesterday.

  6. Grumpy Cat passed away on the morning of Tuesday, May 14 at the age of 7. Her net worth was six figures.

    1. Passing showers with a warm front does not make this a wet weekend. Did you forget about yesterday? Also, today is not going to be a “rainy day”. We have showers passing through the area, which were in the forecast actually.

      1. According to Barry’s graphic, we haven’t had a completely dry weekend since St. Patrick’s Day (16-17).

        1. Yes but that doesn’t mean that we’ve had all rainy weekends. In many of these cases it’s rained for an hour or 2 and caused virtually no issues.

      1. We had a downpour of less than five minutes followed by another bout of light rain for maybe three minutes. Everything is dry again. Passing showers as expected.

  8. I missed out on the rain this morning and now bright sunshine which is something I have not seen on a Sunday in a while. Will see what happens with thunderstorms tomorrow. Latest SREF highlighting parts of interior SNE in that 15% risk area for potential tornadic development tomorrow afternoon.

  9. Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan. I might be missing out on the action tomorrow.
    Interesting storm setup tomorrow. Thunderstorms should be isolated (or could even be all to our north) but with quite a bit of low level shear there is a tornado risk. We will be watching closely for you

  10. The “buzz” seems to be that next weekend has already
    Been “washed” – no surprise there

  11. TK, I do understand your point that it’s not a “rainy weekend,” but it’s definitely raining this morning. And it rained all day Friday. Yesterday was beautiful. But, therein lies the issue with this spring. The rainy or at least cloudy days outnumber the sunny ones, so we remember that nice Saturday or nice Monday, or even a nice workweek. But, while it was dry for stretches in March, since early April the dry and sunny days have been relatively sparse.

    I run every day, and usually run in rain and snow (but not downpours, steady rain or heavy snow). For the past 50 days, I’ve run indoors to avoid the steady rain about 15-20 times. And that is unusual. Some of it also has to do with the puddles and mud that form, even after a mere passing shower. There’s just no place for the water to go. And not a lot of evaporating going on with the lack of a warm or hot sun. Yesterday, for example, was spectacular. But, not really warm, and certainly not sufficiently warm to dry up the mud or even many of the puddles and even small ponds that have formed this spring in the parks.

    1. Friday was the day that ALL WEEK the mets said would be the least favorable. We had beautiful days before it and after it. I’m not sure what people are expecting here. It’s New England. It’s Spring. We’re in an active pattern. This is how it is here!

      I still think this is a massive overreaction on the part of most people. Yes, it’s been frequently wet. Not arguing that point. But we’ve had it worse, far worse, especially in terms of rainfall amounts / flooding.

  12. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    BAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sorry, I need to buy a new keyboard. I don’t think I can dry this one out from the coffee that just got spit into it. 😛

  13. I’ll be editing the blog to forecast rain starting on Friday May 24 and lasting through May 27, because the media would like you all to believe that Memorial Day Weekend is a washout. Can’t beat ’em? Join ’em! 😉

    1. Your forecasts have been very good, and your explanations even better. I learn so much from you.

      I hope I’m not pigeon-holed in the “overreaction” camp. I’m not a fan of sensationalism or overreaction, so that’s not a camp I’d want to be in. Perhaps I am overreacting to this spring.

      1. No, just a general statement. I have a very large view of social media and regular media as a whole.

        As for specific reactions of people here on the blog, they are what they are. I tend to speak in more general terms when I see 3 dozen posts on Facebook, for example, lamenting that their life is ruined by passing rain showers. 😉

  14. I think tomorrow will at least give people something different to complain about. I’ll be counting the social media posts about how hot and/or humid it is.

  16. Hello all….

    Was out fishing this morning, which was beautiful, but then it clouded over
    and I got chased home by some pretty heavy rain….

    I was a good morning on the river as I caught plenty, but the big ones eluded me. 🙂

    Oh and thank you TK.

  17. By July there are people agonizing about how much snow the upcoming winter will feature. Pumpkin spice everything is available in August now – Christmas starts the day after Labor Day….

    1. We live in a rush-it culture. I constantly fight this and try to live in the “now”. Sure I love looking forward to things. Anticipation is half of the excitement, but I try to keep it reasonable as well.

    2. Extremely annoying but necessary need to beat the numbers. Business pushes for you to buy more than you need and earlier and in greater quantities than the previous year or your stock sells off and economic panic sets in. Just the nasty cycle we signed up for to support our mutually dependent pretty high lifestyle compared to most of the rest of the world. Sucks but that’s part of the deal.

    3. I enjoy the Calm meditation app. The subject yesterday was patience. I should have written the phrase down but paraphrasing…

      Patience is the wisdom to patiently wait for things to happen as they should and enjoying them when they do.

      I doubt any single person can claim to do that in all instances….especially when what you are waiting for can have serious consequences. But weather…..

  18. The predicted Memorial Day weekend southeastern US heat wave ….. wow !!!

    The Euro 850 mb projected temps are crazy. A huge contour of 20C. I think I see small contours of 22 and 24C.

    pretty impressive !!!

    1. So I guess the timing of the front passing through has moved from morning to later in the day ??

  20. I would not be surprised tomorrow when the SPC does there day one percentages on hail wind and tornadoes that parts of New England are in a 2% chance. Waiting to see with the updated from the SPC around 1:30 this afternoon if any part of New England gets upgraded to a slight risk for tomorrow.

  21. M.L., I could do with a pumpkin spice latte right about now. But on a serious note you’re right. Everything is moved up in our modern-day culture. We start worrying about winter in July, as you said. Back to school ads start a week after July 4th! Christmas ads start the day after Halloween. Heck, politically it’s worse than ever. I told a friend of mine the other day that it’s inaccurate to say we’re now in a presidential election cycle. Why? Because we’re perpetually in a presidential election cycle.

    1. Actually the last few years, the back-to-school commercials are a bit later. More like the last full week of July. Of course back in my day it was mid-August.

      1. We have been in a presidential election cycle since January 2017 for all practical purposes. 😉

  22. I do agree we are in a “rushed culture.” However, with “Back-to-School” ads, New England schools are among the last in the country to get out in June and among the last to start in September. Many of ads on TV are national chains (Staples, Target, JC Penny, etc.)

    So, yes, “Back-to-School” ads right after July 4 are way too soon, but schools in the South, etc., do get back around mid-August.

    Nice full moon nice with the ISS sailing directly overhead at around 9:30. I was still awake to go outside last night to take in the celestial show! 🙂

    Thanks, as always, TK…

    School’s out in Middleborough a month from today, Tom. How about you?

    Crazier week this week at MHS with sophomore Math MCAS and senior final exams on Tuesday and Wednesday, not to mention the construction of the new building in our school’s backyard.

  23. Temps soaring in the sun in western New England.

    May be 70s to near 80F in eastern areas by 5pm.

    1. Yet I have people on my social media complaining about the 50s & rainy day that all us forecasters were wrong about. Nope! They are wrong interpreting the information and reacting too soon to the actual weather. My point proven YET AGAIN. 🙂

    1. To me, that slight risk “may” have to come East some, but NOT to the coast,
      say somewehere between 496 and 128 (yes it’s 128 to me). 🙂

  25. I was just about to post that. Parts of New England have been upgraded to slight risk.

  26. I noticed that the commercials for Mother’s Day were pretty much confined to the week before. I don’t recall any ads in late April/first few days of May.

    It will be interesting if Father’s Day gets an additional week in comparison. 😉

    1. Mother’s Day always gets more advertising push than does Father’s Day.

      1. Up until this year, it has. Only one week’s notice this time from what I can recall.

  30. 12z Euro looks warmer to me for Memorial Day weekend.

    Let’s hope future runs show consistency 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I think Memorial Day is one of those interesting holidays that can be glorious or not so much. Last year, I recall wearing a jacket to the parade in Sutton and I rarely wear jackets in winter let along the last day of May. Other years, I recall being pool weather.

      1. Indeed … on our annual camping weekend, we have been same and frozen, other times have been pleasant and other times have been quite warm. I’ll take pleasant or warm 🙂

  32. So I still get the feeling that a lot of folks get stuck in that mentality that “what you have now is what you have all day”, especially early in the day. We have rain showers, which were forecast by the way, move through a good portion of the region this morning with a warm front, leading to the expected increase in sun, temperature, and humidity, yet folks are in a tizzy because we added another “day with rain in Boston” to the stats, for example. This statement is general, not directed at anybody here. It’s just a reflection of the widespread “weather sucks” mentality when we have actually had our fair share of very nice episodes of weather in May, despite the cool, cloudy, frequently wet first half of the month.

    This pessimistic mentality didn’t seem to exist as much before, even during the earlier social media culture. It’s become a “thing” in the last 5 years especially. I think it’s linked to news headlines which sensationalize every frontal passage into an event that “threatens millions”. It’s like mother nature has launched an all out attack on us because we live in her atmosphere. We need to stop taking it so personally. It’s just weather. 🙂

    1. I have always been a pessimist. Nothing new here. 🙂

      btw, 77 dp 62 here. That 77 “may” be inflated by a couple of degrees. Damn
      sure it is 75. DP sensor has been remarkably accurate, so 62 it is.

      1. I’m used to that, which is why this post is not toward any one person here. It’s just an editorial. 🙂

  33. Sunny and 80 on the car thermometer with AC blasting and severe thunderstorm watches just hoisted as we leave Killington. What a perfect day for skiing 🙂 I’d estimate Superstar has about 10 feet of snow left on the majority of it with no bare spots yet. This is hands down the warmest day I have ever skied. Lots of people in shorts and t shirts.

    4. Mark, what an awesome post. May I share your pic with my older brother when you post it.

  35. A couple of tornado warned areas in nY along with the Tstorm warnings. They may be in an area with very little population.

  36. We need to mark sprinklers to have lawn dethatched so three little grands are waiting anxiously to play in them.

  37. I took a pic of some really interesting clouds here in Sturbridge this morning at 9:00 at the ball field. However I’m trying to figure out how to get it from my phone to this blog. Tried to copy and paste it in the comments section but did not work. Ideas?

  38. Classes in schools in and around the Oklahoma City area have been cancelled tomorrow due to the threat of wild and dangerous weather.

  40. Everyone was commenting on how they’ve never seen clouds quite like these. They kind of remind me of mammatus clouds, but these had a more ripple type feature. They preceded a very brief shower. My guess is that is a combo of updrafts and downdrafts causing this. I haven’t got a clue.

      1. What time was this SC? I wonder if this was same system the produced the ice pellets that had the turkey screaming here

  42. That was this morning at about 9:00. Temp dropped quickly, made me second guess wearing shorts and t shirt.

    1. It was frozen precip …no idea what we are calling it now but hail would work. But a very short burst. And it would have been maybe 9:30ish so right after your awesome clouds

  44. That’s right your in Sutton, I forgot. I’ve been doing some research and it appears to me that those were Asperitas clouds, judging by pictures I’m seeing and the conditions that surround those types of clouds. Nevertheless they were really neat to observe, don’t see those everyday.

  45. Oops sorry WXWatcher missed your previous post, the post order is mixed up. I guess that verifies I was on the right track with the observation. Thanks for the reply. I have to say the picture doesn’t do it any justice. It was so much more spectacular in person, almost looked like a painting. Thanks!!

  46. Well, I was headed to sleep but ended up on the deck. I never know how that happens

    A tad more humid air. DP is 62 , temp 65. No stars, the clouds are covering them. And there is a very loud chorus of cricket chirps. All in all, it is a very lovely evening

    Sleep well all

  47. Incoming….we are just at the northeast edge of the warned area. Rain just starting now

  50. Thank you for the bday wishes! I am going to update the blog shortly. The remains of that storm went by my area around 2:30AM with some very decent lightning, not frequent, but pretty neat. Some of them were positive strikes. It passed to my south. An area of elevated convection behind it provided a few more cloud-to-cloud flashes with long rolling thunders into the 3AM hour.

  52. I have to drop my car off for new tires this morning and hopefully they are all set before I may chase any storms a bit later…. fingers crossed!

    In the mean time while I take a break half way through updating the blog to drop off the car, you can get an early jump on things with SAK’s update, and I’ll repost this on the new blog update as well.

    https://stormhq.blog/2019/05/20/weekly-outlook-may-20-27-2019/?fbclid=IwAR3mYNmX9nwUHVjPtSwv1uZIFzqYAFmSZngXTT7XCfU6XfNWEPFSyxE6l0k

  57. Some rather loud boomers last night one was extremely close as the entire house shook. The cat was not pleased

  58. Thank you again everyone! New post if you didn’t already find it! Will re-post SAK’s blog there as well.

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