Monday Forecast

126 Comments

9:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)
Into the warm and humid air for today, until a cold front crosses the region this evening. This set-up is conducive to thunderstorms, some possibly strong to even severe, but the limiting factor of marine stabilized air will come into play from the Boston-Providence line southeastward, so the chance of stronger storms is much less there, and some of the activity may even have trouble getting there at all. Something to watch during the day. Behind the front comes a cooler and dry day with a gusty breeze for Tuesday, but passing clouds may grow enough to release a sprinkle or shower of rain in a few locations. High pressure brings fair weather Wednesday before the next disturbance brings some unsettled weather later Thursday possibly lingering early Friday as well before dry weather returns.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible through mid afternoon then showers and thunderstorms more likely from northwest to southeast late afternoon through early evening, strongest north and west of a Boston-Providence line, where a few severe storms are possible with damaging wind being the primary threat. Humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast except cooler Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible early, followed by clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with rain or drizzle lingering, then clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)
Two cold fronts should cross the region during the course of the Memorial Day Weekend, with current timing suggesting late Saturday / early Sunday for front #1 and late Monday for front #2. Much of the weekend should be dry with near to above normal temperatures. Fair and slightly cooler weather returns for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)
Pattern looks west to east flow, flat ridge, which is warm overall but still provides opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at times.

126 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Thanks, TK…May be an active day later on…

    Thanks to you, too, Vicki, our intrepid WHW Action News reporter, giving us live updates from Sutton at 1:45 this morning!!!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  2. Thanks TK, Happy Birthday !!

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=eus&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

    I can see why the NHC is somewhat bullish on this system east of the coastline.

    Cant tell if its a surface or mid level circulation, and the fanning of the cirrus on the northern edge indicates some ventilation aloft.

    Maybe symbolic of an EL Nino tropical season, where the threats could come from close developers and not the more traditional long tracked Cape Verde systems.

  9. Its interesting ……

    the mid-atlantic and SE roasted all spring with a persistent 500 mb ridge overhead.

    Often times, the ridge aloft made it to New England, we did have above average 500 mb heights, HOWEVER, the northern stream set up close enough by with confluent flow to develop an eastern Canada surface high and the resulting easterly surface winds didn’t allow us to share in that incredible warmth.

    Watch out though !! If the northern jet moves a bit further north, a Canadian surface high may not be there to save the day. The overall pattern of a 500 mb east coast ridge looks to continue.

    You can see on the EURO that surges of extremely warm 850 mb temps making it into New England on days 9 and 10.

    We may jump to a 95F+ day or 2 if we join in on the surface air from the southeast ridge prior to May ending without being saved by surface easterly flow.

    1. GFS looks hot as well towards the end of its run, roughly May 30 – June 4. Only a matter of time before that ridge wins the battle!

  10. Thanks TK and Happy Birthday!

    Our severe weather threat doesn’t hold a candle to what the folks in Oklahoma are facing later this afternoon. Getting a bit concerned for them. Major tornado, damaging wind, large hail, and flooding threats are through the roof there today! Many schools and businesses in the Oklahoma City have closed for the day.

    12z 3k NAM for later today is scary…

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=scus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019052012&fh=13

  11. Here are a few shots I took yesterday while skiing Killington. Great day! Was a bit cloudy at first but turned sunny and warm in the PM with temps skyrocketing into the upper 70’s. Warmest day I have ever skied and second latest in the season. Lots of people tailgating in the parking lot and hanging out on the deck at the base of the trail in shorts and t-shirts with their shoes off.

    They have pounded Superstar all season and I would estimate about a 10 foot base remains on the trail with no bare spots. We even got a few runs in on the upper portions of Ovation and Skylark (the two adjacent trails) which had enough snow to ski on (with some walking required on the crossovers)

    https://imgur.com/78ToVyu

    https://imgur.com/V7N1s8s

    https://imgur.com/a/WJCkWRw

  12. The 2013 Moore OK EF5 tornado was six years ago today.
    Ironically those folks are in the bull’s eye for very severe weather this afternoon.

    1. Or has it all along? Was trying to read on phone which doesn’t always work well for me.

  15. Thanks, TK. And Happy Birthday!

    Just on briefly – having lots of frustrations going on especially with a cold that has lasted 2 wks. I hate colds in the spring and summer. Husband has it too. Not hoping for severe weather but would like to see a thunderstorm or 2 – don’t feel that great so can’t enjoy like I usually can.

  16. SPC sight is EXTREMELY SLOW!!! Must be getting a GAZILLION Hits!!!

    But, Severe risk has been extended ALL the way to and past the coast.
    Severe watch being considered.

    1. SPC sight => SPC site!!!!! DUH(!#@)(!*@)(*!)(@&!*@*)!(*@)*^!@(&*#^!&*@^#*&!^@&#^*!&^@#&*!^@#*&^

  17. We may have a subtropical / tropical depression by evening … located southwest of Bermuda.

    The SW flank of it, I think, has an upper level low with it, but the 2nd disturbed area on the NE side definitely has a circulation.

    1. Mark, that is headed this way. we shall see what it does. Probably go poof.

      btw nice t storm around 230 this morning….
      woke me up.

  20. Tornado Watch with a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) for a good chunk of Oklahoma. Here thankfully all were dealing with is isolated strong to severe storms.

  22. Almost think the best stuff may be closer to NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and northern RI.

    1. Are you ready to chase?

      Go get em TKCHASER!

      Have you figured out how to share your dashcam live on line?????

      1. I got my car back with new tires. I have not had a chance to install dash cam yet, so that will have to wait until the next chase. I should be able to set it up to go live on FB at least. Otherwise it will run during any chases I have and I can just save the best parts later. It has gigantic storage capacity.

  23. Is something wrong with imgur.com?
    Every time I open it up, my computer freezes. Everything else is fine…

        1. Thats what is over me now. Some wind. Bursts of heavy rain. 0.13 in maybe 25 min. Sky wants to brighten but can’t.

          May I assume this will zap energy needed for storms later?

    1. That’s it so far. The negative factors have had the upper hand but something will go.

    1. Looks as if that has a fair amount of lightning associated with it. But also seems to be breaking up as it nears you 🙁

      Keeping my fingers crossed that you get a nice show

  32. I count at least five tornado warnings in OK and at its SW border. One is just NW or OK city

        2. I am watching TWC. Huge rotating storm from which appears multiple funnels are occurring.

    1. I think it went right between you and I Tom. We had a brief downpour but that was about it.

      1. Poured here in Pembroke. Probably .1 to .2

        Didnt think we’d get a downpour this far southeast.

  36. I’m throwing out the long term part of the 12z EURO.

    Creates a ridiculously strong polar vortex over Hudson Bay and because of that, dips the jet stream too much in the northeast.

  38. Capt. thanks for that link. It’s tbe best coverage I can find

    Darn but the radar in SW looks horrific

    1. I do admire folks who live there but I’m happy with our less frequent and typically smaller storms here.

  39. More rain here. 0.21 and would guess we have had enough so we won’t have anything worse

    Sons GF heading to northern RI and in that cell. She said very sting thunder

  41. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been dropped but it doesn’t mean an isolated thunderstorm could reach warning criteria. Just a downpour where I am.

  42. NWS SPC‏Verified account @NWSSPC · 3h3 hours ago

    PDS Tornado Watch # 199 is coming for Oklahoma. This is only the second watch in SPC history where every category of watch probabilities (torn, wind, hail) are at greater than 95%.

    The only other watch like this was issued for Alabama on 27 April 2011.

  43. Can’t….sons GF in Cumberland RI said if the warned storm is worse than what they already has, they are doomed

    1. Awesome and I’d be more excited if they had a good V name and if they worked the alphabet backwards once in a while 🙂

      1. I like the backwards idea! Next name up is Barry. It is discussion item for the BZ news team.

      1. Looks like round 3 is closing in.

        It’s muggy !! This is behaving like July.

        I don’t remember cold front convection on a warm May day being this successful down here before.

  48. Vicki you were mentioning starting backwards in the alphabet for named tropical systems in the Atlantic our CBS station in CT which has been naming winter storms since the early 70s did go backwards and started with the Z storm which was Zoe and we got to the W storm which was Wayne.

  49. I don’t know if they will do that again but it was certainly different starting with the z storm and working back this past winter. One year they did names of towns in CT, another year was names of first ladies, and names of famous musical artists was also done one year..

  50. The criteria they use to name winter storms 6 or more inches of snow or 1/4 or more of ice accretion

  51. A friend just called me from the Denver airport – which is located about 30 miles east (?) of Denver. Cold rain all day (in the 30s) and now it’s snowing very hard at the airport.

  54. There was one decent severe cell in northern RI today, but clearly problems in the mid-levels won the day today for New England. Combination of the mediocre mid-level lapse rates as well as mid-level dry air totally prevented updrafts from growing and sustaining, especially over the more favorable kinematic environment to the north and west. Live and learn.

    1. The photo I posted above was from son who lives in Cumberland RI. Oddly, it seems the cell before the warning was stronger than the one after the warning.

      As an aside, my favorite part of the day was him telling his girlfriend who was home that he was running late from work and now wouldn’t be home in time to enjoy a good storm. Wonder where he got the love of storms from 😉

  55. Tulsa Oklahoma …. tornado warning and looks like storm has just passed to their northeast.

    Population : 400,000

    Hope a tornado didn’t pass through that populated area.

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