Wednesday Forecast

38 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)
Essentially no change in the five-day forecast philosophy, so instead of a lot of wording today, just a brief recap as we head from midweek into the Memorial Day Weekend. The only 2 “events” in this 5-day period will be the passage of a small but potent area of low pressure across Maine from northwest to southeast early Friday, which will send a warm front / cold front combo through southern New England, either of which may produce rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms from Thursday evening to early Friday morning. We will have to watch for the possibility of a few strong storms as the dynamics may support it. Another frontal combo will come through Saturday, parented by a low further north in southeastern Canada, with probably just some cloudiness at times Saturday and most shower activity occurring Saturday night. The vast majority of the first 2 days of the Memorial Day Weekend will be rain-free.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68, coolest coast. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable 5-10 MPH with sea breezes possible.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)
Memorial Day Monday May 27 looks dry except a risk of a passing shower late-day or night with a front moving through the region. High pressure moves in for May 28 with fair weather, then high pressure offshore combined with a broad trough approaching from the west brings warmer than average temperatures but with a risk of showers at times during the final 3 days of the month. However it will probably rain only a relatively small fraction of the time on those days.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)
A weak block starts the pattern with high pressure northwest but close enough for dry weather, and low pressure to the south and east far enough way not to impact the region. This should be replaced with a more west to east air flow when a couple disturbances may bring a shower or thunderstorm threat later in the period.

38 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I am very happy with how the weather seems to be shaping up for Memorial Day weekend.

    We have seen plenty of chilly, raw days on past Memorial Day weekends camping and while that is easily manageable with a camp fire, I like the idea of 60s and 70s.

  7. It looks like were dodging a bullet tomorrow when it comes to severe weather. Latest SREF goes wild with possible tornadic development across Upstate NY and PA. Parts of PA are under an enhanced risk from the SPC and I would not be surprised if that gets expanded across Upstate NY.

  8. Parts of the southeast are about to endure an intense late May heat-wave.

    Inland NC, SC, Georgia and the northern half of Florida seem to be centered under the upcoming heat dome.

    Nearing or eclipsing 100F for several days in a row.

  9. Tom they sure are. Upstate NY had a round of severe weather on Sunday including a couple tornado warnings. Will see what other 12z data says for Upstate NY and PA but I would not be surprised if a tornado watch is posted tomorrow for those areas. Saturday might be another potential severe weather day for parts of those same areas at the SPC is already highlighting that in the day 4 outlook.

    1. A bit worrisome for tomorrow (Thursday) as it seems this day is very heavily traveled leading into Memorial Day Weekend.

  10. The probabilities the SREF is showing out there in PA and Upstate NY is something we don’t see often here in the northeast. As Ryan Hanrahan tweeted last night those areas seem primed for a big time severe weather event.

  12. Aaron Perry NBC10 Boston‏Verified account @AaronNBCBoston

    Smoke from wildfires in Western Canada has made its way into New England this morning @MPageNBCBoston @NWSBoston @NBC10Boston @NECN @MattNBCBoston

    https://twitter.com/AaronNBCBoston/status/1131180855605583873

    Matt Noyes NBC10 Boston & NECN‏Verified account @MattNBCBoston · 3h3

    You’ll notice this in the sky today as an apparent haze from time to time. We also have high brush fire danger at home thanks to dry air and a busy breeze this morning.

  14. Interesting trend today on both 12z GFS and EURO in the mid-range (144 to 192 hrs).

    Big Canadian 500 mb disturbance diving more towards central Canada, as opposed to eastern Canada.

    This, in turn, allows the ridge to get further north on the US east coast and as the chilly air moves south in the center of the Continent, the heat moves north along the east coast.

    This would kind of fit in with the CPC summer outlook. Warm coasts, cool central US.

  15. Thanks for the birthday wishes. Happy about the Saturday forecast, outdoor party for my youngest.

  17. I was getting a little amusement out of how similar the CPC forecasts look for June-July-August 2019 and June-July-August 2020. 😉

  20. 8 years to the day after an EF5 tornado killed 158 people and leveled a large portion of Joplin, MO, what appears to have been a catastrophic tornado has hit within a few miles of the city. A tornado emergency, the highest level of alert the NWS can issue, was declared at one point.

    What’s happening in the middle of the country today is what was supposed to happen a couple days ago. Full fledged tornado outbreak. This is just a brutal severe weather and flooding pattern for those areas, and it does not quit.

    1. I was kind of thinking, at one point last night, when there was what seemed like a dozen simultaneous tornado warnings going on, that a PDS almost fit better with last night’s actual happenings compared to what happened 2 days ago.

  21. I guess it’s fair to say the “tornado drought” is pretty much over out there………

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