Thursday Forecast

48 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)
This 5-day portion of the blog forecast takes us right through the Memorial Day Weekend, and considering the pattern we had been in for the vast majority of the spring, this is not really that bad an outlook. The cloudiest of the 5 will be today as a warm front approaches, and this front may produce a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm later in the day, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Its parented by low pressure diving southeastward from eastern Canada, destined to cross Maine tonight while dragging its cold front through southern New England, and this front will likely set off some showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong. While we are not in the SPC severe weather area, I cannot completely rule out a severe storm or two, so it will be a situation we will have to watch for tonight. The low pressure that crosses Maine will become a temporary pest in the ocean to the east, sending some extra clouds, a northeast breeze, and perhaps a few showers across the region Friday, although the day will be mainly dry. Then we get to the Memorial Day Weekend when we’ll be quickly into a southwesterly to westerly flow as a couple troughs cross the region, one later Saturday, and one sometime on Sunday. This period will be warmer than average but will not be without a couple rain shower or thunderstorm threats, but the time of rainfall in any given location will be a small percentage of the overall time during those 2 days, favoring Saturday night and early Sunday, and perhaps in a few spots later Sunday. High pressure looks set to move in for a splendid Memorial Day, with the previous late-day shower threat no longer an issue as that system will be slower to approach.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm especially late-day, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms, a few of which can be strong, mainly between 8PM and 1AM. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable except possibly gusty and variable near any showers and storms, then N 5-15 MPH overnight.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78, except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring early morning and late afternoon hours. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
Timing is not certain for this period but this is a rough idea of what a west-to-east flow should bring the region, and that is a warm frontal passage with showers May 28, a shot of very warm to hot and humid air with a risk of late-day thunderstorms May 29, drying and somewhat cooler but nice weather May 30, then a risk of a shower or thunderstorm between later May 31 and early June 1 with the next passing disturbance.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)
Favored fair weather to start and end period with unsettled risk most likely mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

48 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. What does TK know about tonight that the SPC doesn’t? We are not going to be even “marginal” for strong storms according to them.

    1. elevated instability?

      And TK Knows. Haven’t you learned that yet.

      Perhaps he will enlighten us as to his reasons???

    2. 2 things…

      1: EML
      2: Take note of my use of the word “possible”.

      I don’t know anything they don’t know.

      1. Elevated Mixed Layer…

        Curious how/if we can see that on any of the model output?
        And if so, which site displays this info the best?

        Any tips on what displays are appropriate?

        I have been looking at Most unstable Cape, Mixed lay Cape etc…
        Not seeing all that much.

        I do see that helicity values are up there pretty good and lapse rates are favorable. I do see most unstable Cape of “around” 600 joules. Not a whopping amount, but “enough” perhaps?

        This could be another learning experience for us here on the blog.

        Many thanks

          1. The EML is directly related to the mid-level lapse rates. This is why we often talk about them as a good delineator of higher end storm events, because it’s so rare for the mid-level lapse rates to actually be good around here. If you get mid-level lapse rates up towards 7C/km, you can really get build instability in the mid-levels. In today’s case, it doesn’t look like there will be any surface instability to “connect” the mid-levels with. If there were, this would be an outbreak day.

  4. Thanks TK. I think you and I are thinking the same way for tonight in SNE. I’d expect fairly widespread storms given the EML. However, the fact that storms should be elevated would argue against much in the way of damaging winds. More like just a lot of thunder and lightning and maybe a low hail threat.

    A lot of the hi-res guidance is actually turning more bullish on the most widespread convection being across SNE rather than in the enhanced risk area to the southwest. However, those models have completely botched the evolution of the past 48-72 hours, so as far as I’m concerned they won’t really be usable at all today especially given their inability to capture the ongoing MCS to the west. It’s going to be 100% nowcasting and mesoanalysis today.

  5. Thanks Wxwatcher….
    Love and appreciate your input here.

    We are so fortunate here… we have the Master, TK and then that is enhanced
    with input from WxWatcher and JMA. Where else can one be so tuned into
    what is going on around here.

    THANK YOU to all three of you for all you do and most especially to TK
    for the time and effort he puts into this blog.

  6. Does this NAM sounding for Central MA show the EML well????

    https://imgur.com/a/iUUPckL

    It has “EL” displayed on it.
    It also shows the lapse rate in the mid levels…

    And it also, I think, clearly shows the inversion (I circled in blue) where temps actually go up with height almost to 5,000 feet and then they drop rapidly (lapse rate)

    please advise. Thanks

    1. You’ve got it. The layer above the inversion (I’ve circled it yellow) is the EML in this case. In that layer, the lapse rates are very steep, and that is how instability is built. The “EL” is something else (basically a proxy for the level where storm growth will stop), but this sounding is a good thing example of what we’re talking about. The EML doesn’t encompass the entire “mid-levels”, so the net mid-level lapse rates are lower than in that particular layer, but it’s still a big contributor.

      https://imgur.com/a/Q9bV7yw

  12. Thanks a lot, TK…

    TK, I have been meaning to ask you if you know or know of (or anyone else in WHW Nation) Rob Carolan, forecaster and CEO of Hometown Forecasting. I have been listening to WSAR in Fall River on the way to work in the morning lately and Rob does an extensive forecast and commentary around 6:45. I think he does a fine job and discusses the weather very well. I originally thought it was Rob Gilman, but it’s Rob Carolan. I believe Hometown Forecasting (out of New Hampshire) has the weather forecasting account for the Bloomberg Radio Network.

    1. Rob was a senior at Lyndon State College when I was a freshman. I hear his forecasts, from time to time, on north shore 104.9 FM.

      I didn’t in college and don’t currently know him particularly well.

      I can tell you his forecasts are accurate and that he has a very good presentation and is easy to understand.

    2. I know Rob very well. We were co-workers for quite some time. I actually sat in on a shift worked by one of our regular contributors here and even did some trial run recordings as I have not been in a radio booth for quite a few years. I was sitting with the regular forecaster, not filling in, just to get used to the feel of it again, in case. 😉

      It’s a great forecasting service and I highly recommend it. They use the same forecasting style we learned in school and through experience. I won’t divulge the name of the forecaster I was with although some of you can probably guess it on your own.

  13. Sorry about the semi disappearing act today. this is the first chance I’ve had to look at the blog since my last comment this morning and on my backup account. Been running about like a headless chicken today.

  15. Light rain here. Just had post from either radar scope or radar pro saying some lightning in the area. Cell to my west doesn’t look like much

  18. A tornado warning east of Hazleton PA. And a couple of thunderstorm warned areas around the NY, VT, MA border

  19. One tornado warning in NJ as well. SREF for a couple days was picking up on the areas where we have seen tornado warnings where possible tornadic storms could happen.

  21. And here come the line of storms…..severe thunderstorm warning now for Hartford County. Seeing lightning off in the distance to the north.

        1. Thanks Vicki – I started working in Boston again so haven’t had a chance to hop on in quite a while (other than one quick bday greeting to TK.) Really good to catch up!

  24. Oooops …..

    reliance on EURO for 7 day forecast and a reflection of the major back and forth the EURO has been showing in the medium range.

    Eric’s projection of 93F for next Wednesday, is now Barry’s prediction of 60F for next Wednesday. And with what the EURO projected from its 12z run yesterday to its 00z run overnight, both are reasonable expectations 6 days out.

    But, anyone half paying attention must be like ….. WHAT ???????

    1. The GFS too, had the higher heat for Wed, now 70s. I expect that because the models also shifted from what looked like more blocking to more zonal. When this happens I keep forecast as generalized as possible. I did try to time disturbances beyond 5 for general threats but broad-brushing temp forecasts.

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