Tuesday Forecast

58 Comments

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
No significant changes to be made in the forecast that was posted yesterday, so just a quick summary. A boundary sits to our south today and Wednesday and low pressure comes along with wet weather mainly this afternoon and evening as temperatures go down during the day, and again later Wednesday, another day that will be on the cool side of average. A third low comes along with a more northerly track and pulls the boundary at least over the region Thursday when our temperatures vary the greatest south to north. It will also be the day when we add the risk of thunderstorms into the wet weather forecast. By Friday, this mini train of lows is gone, the boundary is back to the south, but far enough so that high pressure builds toward the region for drier weather, but the last low being the strongest and intensifying further in eastern Canada probably means that wind will be involved with the drying process on Friday. Weak high pressure should hold for fair weather Saturday as June arrives but it may not be all the warm as we have a generally onshore flow with the high centered to the north and low pressure off to the south of New England.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain develop mid to late morning on. Highs 55-62 occurring before noon, then falling to 48-55 in the afternoon. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near the coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly late-day. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Humid. Temperatures steady 58-65 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms early. Humid start, then drying. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78 except cooler any north or west facing shores. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light E.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)
We’re going to have to keep an eye on low pressure to the south and another one to the west to see of high pressure centered to north northeast can hold them off. If we stay fair it will remain on the cooler side of normal, however, on June 2. The remainder of the period should see high pressure shift more to the southeast and a warming trend, but not without the risk of a few showers/thunderstorms from time to time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)
A trough crossing eastern Canada may send a couple disturbances and shower/t-storm chances into the region a couple times during this period. Temperatures overall should be fairly close to seasonal averages.

58 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    What an absolutely outstanding Memorial Day weekend Mother Nature had for us!!!

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Nice hockey game last night, the Bruins exhibited a bit of rust early on, but
    they skated it off and did very well. Great team effort.

    re: Thursday/Thursday night
    Is there a severe threat here at some point in that time period?

  5. Thanks TK!

    It looks to be another active day of severe weather here in the mid-Atlantic. Already an impressive line of severe thunderstorms over Delmarva. If the atmosphere is able to destabilize later, there will be a threat for all severe hazards including tornadoes down here. Our pattern has turned quite active. Today, tomorrow, and Thursday all pose severe weather risks in this area.

    I was in Kent County, MD yesterday on a storm survey, looking at what was determined to be straight line wind damage with speeds around 75mph. That was my first formal survey. Could be more to come in the next couple days. For SNE, Thursday would be the day to watch, but it looks like the greatest threats will continue to remain mainly further south and west over the mid-Atlantic.

      1. Most of NJ outside the immediate NYC suburbs, a good chunk of eastern and southeast PA, all of DE, and a portion of eastern and northeastern MD. And the Delaware Bay and coastal waters of NJ and DE. As NWS county warning areas go, it’s a mid-size area, but quite diverse and certainly high in population.

  7. What time should the rain be in Boston & will it be steady I’m trying to figure out if I should water the flowers

    1. SSK – I don’t know if you saw my question or perhaps I missed your answer. I wonder what type of grass seed you recommend. We have full sun and sandy soil. Thank you!!!

      1. I did later that night & sent you a lengthy post . I recommend Jonathan green seed with awesome quality 1/2 inch screened Loam

        1. My nursery that I deal with swears by it . Sane soil down my way . I used it on a few jobs & had good results . Best time is fall or early spring

            1. No problem anytime. I know you know but I’ll tell you what I tell my customers need to water 2-3 times a day until it is established

              1. I tell them do not waste your money if you can’t 100% commit it needs to be babied

              2. I do know but thank you for telling me. We have an irrigation system and I have one of the programs set for multiple shorter watering periods.

  8. A high school friend who lives south of Dayton posted on FB an hour ago that they are fine but a tornado hit northern suburbs.

    1. My late aunt and uncle lived in nearby Xenia and just missed a tornado literally by a few blocks. That was the infamous tornado that wiped out much of the neighborhood back in the mid 1970s. Was it 1974?

      1. I don’t recall the year – but very sad. I’ll take New England weather over much of the weather elsewhere. I love weather but I would prefer not to deal with tornado outbreaks, earthquakes, flooding, fires, etc.

  9. Wilmington, NC has a 4 day (including today) heat wave going.

    The high temps have been 100F, 96F, 98F and at 11am !!!! today, its 94F.

      1. This may end up being the first May in a couple years where I didn’t have to run my AC or fans once.

        1. Daughter’s family ran their AC upstairs on and off for the weekend and I think last week a couple of times. I had windows open when it wasn’t too windy and ceiling fans on. Wind doesn’t bother me but blowing pollen in the house impacts allergies.

          As I recall, last memorial day was on the chilly side. I seem to remember I wore a light jacket to the festivities.

    2. good news, a seabreeze kicked in at Wilmington. Down to 92F.

      Bad news, the dp is now 70F.

  12. I’d like to propose a new New England season : winsprummer ….. a day of this season is an almost winter-like day that follows several spring and occasional summer days, a day like today. 75F, 88F, 75F, (49F)

  14. SSK just for future reference, regarding your question about the steady rain arrival, I usually use verbal time ranges, such as “mid to late morning” which I used today. That would generally be in the 9AM-11AM range. Sometimes I try to use specific times but when I am forecasting for a region it’s a little harder to do that. But always check the actual post first to see if you can find the info you want in it. I’ll try to put times in there more.

  15. I didn’t notice that part of my intended post (forecast for Friday night & Saturday) was missing, and part of the 6-10 was not the correct text that was supposed to be in there. Both have been fixed.

    I am leaning toward a cooler scenario for the first weekend of June at this time.

    1. We have a dumpster arriving on Friday for cleanout number 4,032. Cooler makes it easier.

    2. How about a cooler scenario for the entire summer TK? I know it’s not realistic but one can fantasize. 😉

  19. a friend in Charleston said it was 100 last weekend. He said he’d take 50 and rain if we want to send it his way.

  21. Ryan Hanrahan tweeting (11 mins ago) of solid rotation in Sussex County NJ.
    He also retweeted about a mile-wide tornado moving through Linwood, KS.

  24. TWC, as usual, is not really doing a good job with their live coverage. Too much vague and sensationalized info hiding the important details. For every 30 seconds of great info, there are 2 minutes of disaster movie scare/hype.

    1. I downloaded their app. It kept telling me to the minute when rain would arrive. It was either late or the radar was clear.

      I deleted the app

      1. They could be SO much better. They have the tech, and the knowledge. It’s execution that is suffering. The guidance is “misguided”. It’s fixable. It really is.

    2. Here’s the problem. If you have a headline that says “tornado warned storm heading for NYC”, but the actual rotation is going to miss NYC and end up in NJ, it’s not really a good way to go about warning people. That’s just one example.

      Do you know many messages are flying around the net that NYC is getting hit by a tornado right now? I just got one from a friend who was watching TWC who told him NYC was. Not because they said those words specifically, but their headline resulted in that inference.

      This can be avoided with more careful wording.

  25. Ryan Hanrahan 7 minutes ago:

    The @NBCNewYork S Band radar detected a large debris ball/tornado debris signature near Stanhope, NJ where serious damage has been reported. This radar signature confirms a tornado touched down and debris was lofted.

  26. 18z GFS & 18z FV3 GFS are very different at the end of their runs.

    Let’s note here that the GFS is going rather cool and somewhat unsettled while the FV3 is much warmer & drier for June 13. This is just about the time that FV3 is scheduled to go live.

    Let’s remember and verify in 384 hours. 🙂

    1. I am guessing historically the accuracy of the 18z GFS at 384 hours has been about 1.2%. The bar set for the FV3 to top is quite low 🙂

  27. Will be interesting to see the damage reports from northern NJ and Staten Island. Per Ryan H, that warned storm crossing into Staten Island about an hour ago had radar indicated hail in excess of 2″ diameter. That’s golf ball size!

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