Friday Forecast

35 Comments

6:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)
Patterns can be unsettled and not overly wet (amount-wise). That’s what we’ve had for months. Big picture, not individual events. That’s what we have coming up in the shorter term. Unsettled pattern, but not a lot of rain. But don’t key on the word unsettled. Let’s first focus on what will be 2 very nice days today and Saturday as high pressure controls the weather today and hangs on into Saturday as a front approaches from the west. This front will run out of steam and so will probably all the showers it tries to throw our way. As a second front pushes toward the region Sunday, a lot of its shower and thunderstorm activity may also be held at bay to the north and west of the majority of the WHW forecast area. The irony: that ocean-cooled air that so many people can be annoyed with at this time of year will be a big part of the reason the wet weather doesn’t make it into places like Boston and Providence. Now how about that! Eventually, the upper level energy will win out and we should get showers further south and east by later Sunday and Sunday night, so the weekend may end wetter in the areas it was dry most of the time. Early next week, a late spring upper level cool pool will be overhead and while most of the time it will be dry, we’ll have to watch for pop up instability showers both Monday and Tuesday, with the greater chance likely to be Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78 except cooler any north or west facing shores. Wind light N then sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy except coastal fog and low clouds. Lows 52-59. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Coastal low clouds and fog may be slow to break in the morning. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light E to SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers, mainly late-night, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Areas of coastal fog. Lows 53-60. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of coastal fog and drizzle early to mid morning. Chance of showers mainly very early favoring areas north and west of Boston and again late-day in any location. Highs 62-69. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible early. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)
Temperatures variable but overall near seasonable. The mean trough position will likely be in eastern Canada with a ridge to the west (Midwest / Great Lakes). This pattern will send disturbances southeastward across New England and bring a few opportunities for showers.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)
I’m staying with the idea of pattern persistence in this period even though some medium range guidance tries to build more of a ridge of high pressure in the East. Still the overall feeling is when this pattern is ready to let go, it will do so quickly, so making no changes for now, but confidence is not high. Still should have a lack of early heat but a few opportunities for showers.

35 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  5. Just a guess probably a high dew point summer with all the moisture in the ground to the west and southwest of sne.

  6. Thanks TK!
    Got that late spring feel out there this morning, with a hint of higher humidity. Love the smell of the air on mornings like these in the woods, after some overnight rain.

    1. and ……. its still May !!

      British Columbia (western Canada) forecast to have a very hot summer.

      Likely to see lots of hazy skies this summer, even during a Don Kent summer polar airmass.

      1. I wouldn’t count on those type of airmasses too often these days. A weather relic of the past, unfortunately. 🙂

        1. Well ….. summer 2000 or 2001 had persistent summer polar air ……

          At our latitude, especially in July and August, that type of airmass should be around infrequently, but they still happen, I believe. 🙂

  10. https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_canarc_nir_100.jpg

    In this image, we can see problems in the arctic, looking at the upper left corner.

    The Beaufort Sea has a decent area where the ice has melted out. In following this closely, during the satellite era, there is not supposed to be open water in that area until just AFTER the solstice.

    Same, further left, just west of point Barrow, where the open water should be ice covered down into the northern Bering strait, but instead extends hundreds of miles into the arctic ocean. These 2 areas are likely to meet in a week to 10 days east of point Barrow.

    Of course, the further negative feedback is the sun has that much longer to put heat into the exposed ocean, which warms up the water, which further melts more ice …….

  12. Why on these days forecast to be mostly sunny is it usually completely overcast from 10am until about 4pm? I’m not complaining! Is it that the sun’s heating creates clouds from moisture in the air? Do the clouds dissipate with the lower sun angle? I’ve always wondered why this seems to
    Be the case

    1. Well, on some occasions, especially in the mild to warm seasons, as soon as the sun warms the ground/pavement and the warmed air particles begin to rise into cooler air above, the air parcel cools and forms clouds. So, that’s a natural atmospheric process.

      Today, I’m not sure. At least here, its fairly sunny, but a dimmed hazy sun at that due to thick smoke which has settled south from northern new england, and thus the sun is not as bright as one might expect it to be.

      1. During the Noon hour around here it was MISERABLY cloudy once again with SPITS OF RAIN !*@&#*!@(*#!&@#!*@&#(*
        Then after a few hours, the sun came out again.

        Barry did say last night that it was possible to have a few isolated
        “instability” showers. I guess that is exactly what happened.

  14. The clouds were caused by a sea breeze boundary. It’s hard to pick up on those sometimes. Many times they don’t do much of anything. Today there was enough convergence for cloudiness and a few light showers, which since vanished. They didn’t ruin anybody’s day.

    Also, forecast mostly sunny days are more often than not mostly sunny. There are small cloud cover surprises from time to time, which again would be another example of even short term forecasting being somewhat inexact. The nature of the beast. I always invite anybody else to peruse the maps and have a go at this. 😉

  17. Hot (low 90s in some locales) and humid weather to impact the low countries, beginning tomorrow. It’s been a brighter and warmer spring there than here.

    Sadly, another famine is likely in North Korea, due in part to an ongoing drought and terrible crop yields. See article below. Throw in Stalinist forced collectivization of the farms and you’ve got a recipe for famine. Happened in the Soviet Union (1930s), China (1950s), and North Korea (1990s). Leaders there have always blamed the weather. In reality, it’s a combination of unfavorable weather and collectivist mismanagement.

    Kim Jong Un is the most brutal despot on the planet at the moment. And, he’s got nuclear weapons.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-dreams-of-waterfront-property-in-north-korea-its-people-are-desperate-for-food/2019/05/31/da1e44ae-823d-11e9-bce7-40b4105f7ca0_story.html?utm_term=.8b324d82ade3

    1. The really scary part is that Trump also has nuclear weapons. Think on that for a bit.

    1. I’d say it is NOT their year. There is plenty of time, but I do NOT like the signs.
      It is now June 1st. They’ve been playing for 2 full months. Something better
      improve in a hurry.

  19. I never expected this with the Yankees with all the injuries to be where they are on June 1st. I thought if they could just stay around 500 until the injured players come back that would be great. Aaron Boone to me right now is the AL Manager of the year.

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