Sunday Forecast

31 Comments

11:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)
Apologies for the late update and since there are not many changes this is really just a touch-up of the previous blog post more than anything. We do have high pressure in control now with 2 nice days ahead, then a disturbance moving through from west to east brings unsettled weather Tuesday with a follow up doing the same thing sometime Thursday. The first of the two will likely be the better wet weather producer in terms of coverage, while the second one may be more prone to producing scattered but heavier showers and t-storms.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light W but with sea breezes possible.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Risk of a thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of passing showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
The next frontal passage will be as a trough drops through eastern Canada and skirts eastern New England in a weather pattern that shifts the ridge of high pressure into the Plains and western US. This would bring a shower/t-storm risk late June 29 to early June 30 then breezy and cooler weather the remainder of July 30 followed by fair weather and slight warming trend July 1-2.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)
Weather systems will be fairly weak with high pressure in control and only 1 or 2 passing disturbances with brief shower/t-storm threats. Mainly dry weather. Still lacking major heat but it should be seasonably warm overall.

31 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. Going to the Red Sox game Tuesday night with my Dad and two brothers. One of which will be here from CA. Hope the rain clears out by game time.

  5. Logan DP = 49F 🙂

    Dewpoints like this are going to become rare in the coming weeks if not days.

    1. It’s remarkably nice outside. There have been some gems this spring and early summer.

      As I’ve said before, I know 3-H is coming, but the longer we keep it at bay the shorter its duration will be.

  6. Still snowing lightly in Resolute. Coldest spot in Canada in recent days. Resolute has a very dry climate. Biggest snow months tend to be August and September.

  7. In the next 10 days to 2 weeks, I think those who like comfortable humidity levels will be happy a majority of the time.

    Looks like the 500 mb flow is mostly west, west-northwest or occasionally northwest. Tough to maintain consistent oppressive humidity under that flow.

    An occasional bout of 60s dewpoints ahead of a cold front, followed by 50s dewpoints.

    1. I do find this interesting because I don’t think this matches the predicted summer pattern at all.

      Supposed to be warm west, cool central and warm east. Instead, this will be cool west, very warm to hot central, and mild to warm northeast.

        1. I was under the impression that this summer will be warm & wet. It still could pan out, I suppose.

  8. Thanks for the post, Tom.

    I must say I hardly ever put much faith in long-term pattern predictions. We’ll see how this summer pans out. There are so many unpredictable variables that can confound a model’s (or set of models) predictions. It’s sort of like predicting the stock market or economy, though I think meteorology has gotten better over the years while economics has gotten worse.

  9. Remember not to verify a summer forecast (which spans 3 months) on model run that spans several days.

    That said, I’m not quite as sold on the warm Northeast after something a colleague pointed out recently.

      1. Remember the cool pool that just went by?

        A lot of those. A lot of NW flow. Ridge’s mean center probably around the Rockies / Plains. Lack of Bermuda High (but we can get one now and then on pattern readjustments).

        Since the idea is already out there, and I’m not claiming credit for the work, it was done by someone I used to work with and is an excellent forecaster. The idea is summer 2019 may be similar to summers of 2008, 1997, 1986, 1975, and 1964. Notice something about these?

            1. Summer of `53 was kind of all over the place as I recall. `42 was a doozy, all that “donnerwetter” and Nazi subs off the coast. `31 had a lot of northwest flow, and a few cool pools, including the old Cary Street Club saltwater pool in Nahant. `20 is just before I was born so I have no memories of that.

              1. So I have the 11….what were those summers. I was too busy as a 16 year old enjoying summer break in 65. In 76 I was in upstate Maine. In 86 I was about to deliver my third child. And 2008 ….well anyway.

                1. Each one of them were solar minimum on the 11 year solar cycle. They all lacked major heat with temps near to below normal for the summer.

                  Precipitation was variable, not really correlating strongly one way or another, maybe a leaning slightly dry.

                2. Well then. Thank you. Sounds lovely to me. I’d take all days like today. But then if not…I’ll take that too

  10. Philip, 10 days in August 1975 stayed below 80 at Boston. And there were only 4 days of 90+ including the 102 high on August 2. Other than that blast of heat at the start of the month, it was not a hot month at Boston.

  12. Thanks TK !

    Thanks also for the discussion at the end of yesterday’s blog. Interesting for sure !!

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