Monday Forecast

71 Comments

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)
High pressure brings fair weather today and allows a decent ocean breeze to develop this afternoon as the inland areas heat up, air rises, and is replaced with cooler, more dense marine air from over the much cooler water. Low pressure tracks eastward across southeastern Canada Tuesday bringing a warm front / cold front combo through southeastern New England, the cloudiest and more unsettled day of this week. Lacking much push, the cold front will fizzle out as it goes through, so our midweek will feature more humidity and a daily risk of a few showers/thunderstorms, especially as another weak disturbance moves through the region later Wednesday to early Thursday. But still cannot rule them out right into Friday as well, though a weak area of high pressure should limit the threat by then.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83 but turning cooler, especially coast, this afternoon. Wind light variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 68-75. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower. More humid. Lows 57-64. Wind light SW shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind light variable, coastal sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early and again late. Humid. Highs 79-86. Wind light W.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
Upper level low pressure will drop southward out of Canada and bring a cooling trend and a risk of showers / thunderstorms June 29-30 weekend. Overall drier with a slow warm-up as July gets underway as the upper low departs and a westerly flow returns. This westerly flow may contain a disturbance and a shower/storm threat briefly.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)
A general westerly flow, seasonably warm pattern with a couple opportunities for showers/thunderstorms, but dry weather most of the time.

71 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK.
    So basically another dreary stretch and now all the way through next weekend. Can’t we string a week together of dry weather so baseball playoffs can finish 🙂

    1. Hi Hadi. Nice to see you here. I am chuckling. It amazes me how differently people can read something. I read part sun – yay; possible shower – short lived and good for my lawn which is turning brown; possible thunder storm – yay.

  6. Thanks Tk . I’m asking all the weather gods for a dry Sunday . If I get Sunday’s job done I can have 4 days off staring at 3:30 7/3 . I could really use 4 days off I’ve been going 7 days a week mostly since the end of March .

    1. I’m hoping for the same. Sutton has its first Fourth celebration with a parade, food trucks, fireworks, kids games, etc. I have had the pleasure of being on the parade committee. Lots of help and advice from TK and Sue!!

  7. I’ve already heard the public complaining about “another week of summer down the tubes.” Next weekend already “washed out….z”

  8. Thanks TK
    Another week of summer down the tubes is not a smart statement. Today is great tomorrow little wet and Wednesday through Saturday typical summer weather with highs in the 80s bit of humidity and a chance of a pop up shower or storm but not all day washout. This is not another week of summer down the tubes in my book.

  9. My interpretation of the week’s weather, incorporating TK’s forecast, the models and the TV broadcasts that I watch is for a nice summer week.

    One day, Tuesday, cloudy with rain chances.

    Otherwise summer-like and nice Monday, Wednesday thru next Sunday. Yes, sometime this upcoming summer weekend could be a similar day to last Saturday with a cold pool of air aloft causing pm scattered storms.

    Am I missing something ?

      1. Perhaps people should stop looking at their phones and watch the tv mets newscasts. It is becoming a lost art these days I guess.

    2. Tom – since I’m clearly on a roll…..My oldest is riding again. The horses were moved from a winter indoor arena to an outdoor home arena over a month ago. If daughter had to skip riding for a day due to weather, I’d be surprised it it were more than three times.

  11. I think television broadcasts, as well as many apps present summer weather or even all weather as a high stakes drama centering on which days are “washed.” “Will clouds ruin your weekend?” Etc. Many people have come to expect up to the second information for where they are – right now – this instant. That expectation, to the extent it exists is a function of culture and technology that I think we’re stuck with

    1. This is all a DISSERVICE to the public, but then we know that, don’t we.
      Our society has gone down the tubes!

      1. I think it is the exception and not the rules to see our major stations doing this. Only a damned fool actually believes that anything a few days out is any more than a loose guide.

        However, JPD, you are correct – our SOCIETY has gone down the tubes. This is driven by the people and the fact that they KNOW weather is not predictable and the apps stink is not the fault of anyone but themselves. If people do not demand it, the networks will change their approach.

        All of that said, thinking that the few people each of us knows represents the whole is anything but accurate. In this country we have also developed an unfortunate tendency to use a few to label the whole.

        1. Just yesterday a woman commented on the lovely day outside – “finally” after 4 days of rain. I just politely nodded and agreed with her.

    1. Logan’s wind just shifted to the East and temp immediately dropped to 79.
      I suspect there will be a slow drop all the way to the upper 60’s during the
      afternoon. We shall see.

    1. Yes ……… Women’s World Cup on-going in France.

      Big game this Friday for team USA vs France and unfortunately, both teams will have to contend with very hot conditions.

    1. That was misleading….there are currently no fires in WA. It is how residents of the northwest should prepare for the inevitable.

  18. My issue isn’t the pattern but rather just enough rain to cxl soooo many games. More just bad timing bc spring ruined so many games that the season extended.

    1. Here’s hoping any afternoon scattered showers/storms miss where the games are taking place.

  19. Don’t know if the Euro is on to something or out to lunch.

    Today, it takes the mid-range cool pool at 500mb (hr 144) and swiftly moves it east of the region, allowing for 500 mb heights to re-build quickly in the northeast.

    Has 18c, 850 mb temps over most of New England, advertising a very warm to hot Fourth of July.

    Let’s see if there’s any consistency to this in coming runs.

  20. One day of measurable rain in most of SNE this week. Tomorrow. This week is a washout? I think a lot of people are way oversensitive. April was bona fide wet, after a very average opening three months of the year. May was generally slightly above normal on rain, nothing noteworthy. June has been very normal as well. This is anything but a wet pattern.

    Of course, this time of year, individual sites can be skewed because of the scattered nature of summer precipitation. But taking an area wide average, the pattern we’ve gotten into now is a drier than normal one if anything.

  21. To add to my above… where this has definitely been a wet pattern is here in the mid-Atlantic. Just an absolute onslaught of rain and storms in recent weeks, though it appears that too has broken and we will join SNE in going generally drier than normal for awhile. But the flooding down here, very near where I live, was near record setting last week. Some areas exceeded 6″ of rain in a day. Philadelphia had over 4″ in 3 hours.

  22. WxWatcher your area has had a busy severe weather season the past month and a half and here in SNE we been in the stable air mass and missing out on the action so far.

    1. Must be the birth year. My son who shares your birth year is usually out Christmas Eve. And he wraps presents in newspapers. I have to say he does it expertly and we all love it because it is now a tradition.

  26. I have this system I have followed the last several years when it comes to Christmas
    One week I get the cards for family and friends
    Next week I decorate my place and help my mom and stepdad decorate their house including going out getting the Christmas tree
    Week after that I go shopping.

  27. We have gotten the Christmas tree in all sorts of weather with the exception of rain. December 1998 it 75 degrees and getting the tree in short sleeves and shorts. My favorite was getting the tree in December 2017 when it was snowing which just added to the holiday spirit.

    1. Now anytime I see the word “Christmas” I’m happy. Thank you for the reminder, JJ and Vicki. And yes, I recall the warm December of 1998, as well as the much colder December of 2017.

      1. I know how much you love the season, Joshua we share that

        Are we premature? Maybe. Maybe not. I think the entire year could use some Christmas magic.

    2. I’m sitting here just smiling at your memories. There is nothing more special than Christmas traditions

      1. We’re not premature. I actually think of Christmas all year. I’m not embarrassed to say that I own a Rudolph stuffed animal (my children laugh at me, in a nice way), and an Episcopal teddy bear stuffed animal (he’s holding a prayer book; btw, I’m not Episcopal, but I bought it at Trinity in Boston).

        My fondest memories of childhood are the weeks leading up to Christmas; from hearing Burl Ives (my mother loved his Christmas record), to Candlelight Carols at Trinity, to cutting our own tree (and then decorating) with my father, to the comfort of sitting by a roaring fireplace on a cold night.

  28. The year is flying by and tomorrow six months to Christmas and it will be here before you know it. I remember watching an ad during last football season when I was at my mom’s and stepdads and CBS was advertising the Super Bowl, The Masters, NCAA Tournament, and PGA Championship. I said to my mom those events are going to be here before you know it. All those events CBS advertised already happened.

      1. You’re right, JJ and Vicki. And, as we age time really flies by. Too fast, really. So, even though I often think of Christmas I appreciate every day, even the 3-H ones. I appreciate all kinds of weather, all seasons, and most holidays.

  29. Captain, it is indeed very hot in much of Western Europe. Paris will be especially hot this week. France is still unprepared for prolonged heat. 15,000 lost their lives in the 2003 heatwave.

    The Netherlands has implemented its “heat plan” (hitte plan). They do things systematically there. We could learn a thing or two about how to organize and mobilize.

  30. Snow continues to fall at Thule air force base; a couple more inches expected. I do wish the photographer who took the picture 10 days ago of the melting ice would take pictures now. I’m not a climate change skeptic at all. There is a problem with global warming. But, I don’t like sensationalism, or skewed news reports. I like balance and facts. And I see almost none in the media today.

    1. Correct. And that melting ice happens yearly in that spot. It was accelerated this particular June because……wait for it….they had a warm pattern there while it was cold somewhere else. It was blocked (-NAO set-up). But that pattern was used to promote more than just ongoing weather.

      That is not how it should be done. Like photos of polar bears at the edge of ice looking like they are trapped. No, they are actually hunting for dinner. 😉

            1. Thank you Joshua and Vicki 🙂 We just have to look at how Nature is responding to anthropological induced climate change. There are indeed species more able to adapt or are more mobile (bird species, fish) In New England We have seen an increase in bugs, some of which have not been around here including 2 species of fire ants , a wasp species, a new mosquito which holds even more vectors of diseases. Several bird species have been found here in New England that we have not seen this far north or use to be rare to see. You can tell the climate is changing just by looking at the biogeographics of the animals and plants.

              1. A couple things people haven’t talked much about, which I wondered what your thoughts were on… More turkeys around here now, fewer pigeons.

  31. In the something to keep an eye on category.
    Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Another cold pool aloft swings over New England Sunday. Exact location/strength will determine coverage of showers/storms/hail. Stay tuned.

    2. I think he’s putting too much weight on the GFS, which looks like it’s over-forecasting the hell out of that upper.

  32. I had about a 15 minute downpour Saturday but parts of CT did get hail from those storms on Sunday. Will see if we see a repeat performance next Sunday.

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