Friday Forecast

44 Comments

7:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
High pressure controls today’s weather and while humidity is down a few notches the heat will be up a few, with some 90 degree readings possible for the first time in many locations, including Boston. The weekend is unsettled but again I caution you not to take that to mean a wet weekend. There will be a disturbance passing by during Saturday morning and another one sometime Sunday, probably by early afternoon, while during the 2 days a broad upper level low pressure area dives southeastward out of eastern Canada, passing over and just east of New England. Saturday’s shower/storm threat, more linear or broken linear, will be driven more by a cold front, while Sunday’s activity, more isolated to scattered, will be driven by a trough early and lingering cold air aloft into afternoon (similar to the June 22 event). This low gets east of the region with a pleasant and dry northerly air flow Monday to start July, then a weak trough may bring clouds and a risk of a shower late Monday night / early Tuesday before a warmer westerly air flow takes over.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Rain or showers possible by dawn. More humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and a chance of showers/thunderstorms early, then variably cloudy with a risk of showers and thunderstorms mid morning to early afternoon (mid afternoon Cape Cod), then partly cloudy with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible thereafter. Humid.
Highs 79-86. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms morning-midday. Isolated showers/thunderstorms thereafter. Less humid. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)
The majority of this period will see dry weather, and we’ll only have to watch a couple of generally weak disturbances that may be enough to kick off a passing shower or thunderstorm on the July 6-7 weekend. Temperatures near to slightly above normal as we see a more predominant westerly flow.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)
High pressure ridge backs up a little to allow another eastern Canadian trough to drop into the region early in the period with an increased shower/t-storm threat before a generally westerly flow and seasonably warm pattern returns with mostly dry weather.

44 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. Yes you’ve been hearing it here for several days. “Similar to Saturday June 22”.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    6Z NAM fairly robust for severe tomorrow. SPC has Western sections in slight risk
    and Eastern sections in Marginal risk.

    We shall see.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Looks pretty active in SNE this weekend. Not washed out, but it won’t be one of the nicer weekends of summer. I honestly hadn’t been too impressed by what I was seeing with Saturday, but it seems to me that the shear/instability combination forecasts have improved. And the hi-res guidance is really lighting up most of SNE tomorrow, which is usually a good signal especially when forcing is fairly strong like it will be tomorrow. So I’d expect an active afternoon with damaging winds and hail both possible. If storms remain discrete (we may see an intense squall line develop pretty quickly), maybe an isolated tornado. It’s also a little unclear, and will be dependent on timing, if the greatest threat is more over central and eastern SNE (if things are slower) or further southwest over CT/NYC/NJ (if things are faster).

    Sunday’s busy too. It’s another cold pool setup with steep lapse rates. The dynamics on this one are better than the last one though. If the timing is right to build instability (it may be a little fast), you could get something similar to a week or so ago with fast-pulsing storms, but some of those could turn briefly severe with hail and gusty winds. All in all, there will be a lot of radar watching this weekend.

    2. Thank you, WxW! Great read as always. I hope all is well with you and you are enjoying your summer!

      1. Thanks Vicki! It has been a good start to summer. Definitely busy at work with the severe weather and flooding we’ve seen. But I’ve already grown fond of the beaches here, and have some travel planned over the next couple of months, so I’m finding some balance as well. Overall, no complaints. Hoping everything is well with you too!

        1. Good to hear, WxW, sounds like you’re making a go of it down there. Nothing better than getting outside when your work life is indoors!

        2. That is awesome news, WxW. Sorry it took so long to reply. I had an appointment that took a good chunk of the day. We are well. Thank you for asking!!!

  6. Thanks TK.
    Here is the SPC outlook for Saturday. This will be updated around 1:30pm today.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    Part of Upton NY discussion which covers the four southern counties of CT explains there is an increased severe weather threat.
    Mid level drying does not appear as prevalent as were earlier indications. As a result increased the chances for showers and thunderstorms, still remaining at chance, and this may need to be increase to likely in subsequent forecasts. Instability will be increasing through Saturday as will shear and CAPE. There is now an increased threat for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the early evening ahead of the cold front.

  7. Thanks TK and WxW. Looks like some potential interesting weather in SNE this weekend.

    We are in the air off the coast off SC on the way to Fort Lauderdale where it is 84 with a heat index of 92 as of 9am. Smooth ride overall. Tomorrow we leave for a Caribbean cruise on RCL’s newest boat, the symphony of the Seas. Really looking forward to it!

    Hope everyone has a great 4th and enjoys the time off!

  9. Currently SE wind at Logan. If that stays in place then NO way 90F will be achieved there today. They may have to wait until next month.

  13. 82 at logan.

    sea breeze lost its punch. It’s sweltering here in JP.

    My accurite reads 91. Oregon Scientific reads 84. Go figure. I guess it is really 87.

  15. tk what are your thoughts for tommorow. thinking about chasing. i might start somewhere South West of boston.

    1. I think the main energy comes by in the morning but that leaves time for a couple clusters or lines in the midday / afternoon. That’s not a bad place to hang out.

      My only plan tomorrow is a fireworks display in Braintree at 10PM. Assuming they don’t panic and cancel, everything will be long gone before that. I’m leaving open as a chase day myself. Tomorrow is the first of 9 days off for me. 🙂

  16. According to Meteo France, the village of Gallargues-le-Montueux, in the southern part of France, hit 45.9 degrees C (114.62 degrees F), the first time in French history a maximum temperature greater than 45.0 has been recorded.

    Zaragoza, Spain hit 42.7 C (108.9 F) today and is forecasted to hit 44 C (111.2) tomorrow.

    1. I was listening to that report today. Highest temp ever recorded. The report said 15,000 people died in 2003. This is really terrifying.

    2. Indeed. Below are two BBC articles on the heatwave. The second one contains a map with temperatures. What’s interesting is that the hot spots on the map are the normal hot spots during any heatwave. It’s just that this time it’s even hotter in a number of locales. I do buy the explanation that some of the excessive heat is due to a prolonged dry period. Practically all of Western Europe has been relatively dry for a long time – over 18 months. In some places, it’s been extremely dry.

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48795264

      https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48756480

      1. It also seems that areas that are typical of this or that are regularly seeing hotter or wetter or snowier, etc.

    1. Ugh. I know manure can spontaneously combust; but in that heat and with everything so dry, it is clearly a setup for disaster.

    1. this morning was more or less from warm frontal activity. “Should” not interfere
      with activities later on. I see BLUE SKY, so when that sun pokes through, the
      instability will start to cook.

    2. Not in this case, but keep in mind a lot of places will be missed this afternoon. That doesn’t mean the activity didn’t take place. It just will take place “elsewhere” in some cases.

  21. Updating now…
    I’m going to keep it short today and let SAK’s blog which I will repost do a lot of the covering of the severe weather, which is fine because something in allergy land nailed me overnight and I have a sore throat and no voice (good thing I’m not doing radio right now) and headache. Tending to it now.

    Update will be posted shortly.

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