Saturday Forecast

92 Comments

10:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
It’s “go time” on the rough weather threat. Being a little late with this update some of you have already experienced some decent thunderstorms this morning. The first wave activity as generally by the boards but the threat for additional showers/storms, some possibly severe, continues through this afternoon. This is not a case where a widespread line of storms comes through and gets everybody, but there will be smaller line/clusters, probably 1 or 2, left to go during today, and possibly a few more isolated cells as well. So while somebody gets hammered, someone else gets nothing. That’s why it’s important to keep updated on the current weather, not just what your app or TV or WHW says may happen today. Things settle down tonight and then tomorrow, as we have been saying, will be a similar set-up to last Saturday with cold air aloft and pop up showers/storms, main threat being small hail. Not everyone will see these either, but if you happen to get one, you’ll surely know it. And then comes July, and a pleasant/dry start Monday as the low pulls away and high pressure moves in. A disturbance moving rapidly through the region Monday night and early Tuesday may kick off a few showers/storms but it will be mostly dry overall, and then high pressure returns Wednesday with fair weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. While rain-free much of the time in any area, any storms can be strong to severe. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming W. Winds can be strong and gusty near storms.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms morning-midday. Isolated showers/thunderstorms thereafter. Less humid. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouds early, then mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, but may cool back to 70s coast. Wind light variable with light sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)
The majority of this period will see dry weather, and we’ll only have to watch a couple of generally weak disturbances that may be enough to kick off a passing shower or thunderstorm on the July 6-7 weekend, favoring July 7. Additional showers/storms are possible as an upper low and disturbance drop through the region July 8. Temperatures near to slightly above normal as we see a more predominant westerly flow, but may turn cooler at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)
A return to mainly westerly flow and seasonably warm weather with a couple disturbances bringing opportunities for passing showers/storms amidst mostly dry weather otherwise.

92 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    We had thunder from 6 to 8 am and it was constant. Nothing earth shattering.

  3. According to Barry, a HOT 4th with a high of 91 or 92. Other than 2009 I can’t recall even normal temps on a 4th of July. A hot-very hot day is almost always on cue for that date. Too bad snow doesn’t fall on cue every December 25th around here.

    1. We’ve had some very pleasant ones as well. I’m in Boston every year on July 4, outside all day, so I’m pretty up on that kind of thing. And “normal” weather on any given day is the rarest weather there is. Almost no day is “normal” by definition, i.e., exact average high, low, mean, and precip. 😉 Almost never happens.

  4. Thanks TK! Hope you feel better fast!

    Current indications to me are that the greatest severe threat will end up a little further southwest over CT/NY/NJ, but still some threat into eastern SNE as well. I agree with the SPC outlook. I wouldn’t be confident enough in the location of greatest risk to introduce a small enhanced risk area. Damaging winds the main threat, maybe some hail but that would be more isolated.

      1. Lot of Fourth celebrations this weekend today and Sutton’s tomorrow. I’m ok if nature doesn’t add to the fireworks. I noticed so far that northbridge which neighbors us is still on staring at 2 and ending with fireworks.

  6. It’s only Noonish, but the radars are very Unimpressive. Yes, I know it is early.
    Sun has been breaking out here and it is WICKED humid!!! As I sit, the sweat is
    pouring down my neck. That humidity has to count for something. We shall see, but as of now, I am not too worried about the Boston area.

    2. So far per HRRR (which has been pretty decent) things are going as expected.

      Again this is not going to be a widespread severe outbreak. It’s going to be a situation where we have a couple or a few waves of clusters/lines and a few isolated cells, some of which can be severe. Odds are against any one location getting nailed.

  10. can someone please post a link where i can see the current satellite(cloud cover). i want to see if there will be complete breaks of sun.

        1. Limit some maybe, but the dew points are mostly 68-72 which is plenty juicy and temps are into the 80s for the most part.
          I think there will be decent storms.

  12. 82 at Logan with dp 68. My accurite is saying dp 74 which I know is wrong, but
    I do think the dp is 70 or 71 here and NOT 68.

  15. If I am not mistaken cell between Springfield and Ware shows some signs of weak rotation.

  16. Severe Thunderstorm Warning till 4:15 for central and southern Bristol County for the storm just entering western Rhode Island.

  17. WE had attempts at sun and now clouds are building. severe warning up in TK’s area and down in RI.

  18. 88 at Logan with dp 70. I just came in from picking up a couple of new
    ultra quiet window ACs, It is a STINKER out there.

    Also, I can now see the cirrus blow off from approaching storms.
    Will we get one? Time will tell.

  19. There are a bunch of small cells in NY west of MA. Hopefully, for areas having celebrations, the current systems will steal their thunder….literally. I don’t like that cell just west of here. Northbridge is having their fourth celebration now.

  20. I am missing the action so far when it comes to thunderstorms. I am not missing out on the higher levels of humidity.

  21. I see multiple lightning strikes from Woburn concord to chelmsford
    and another batch by oxford, Auburn and Charlton.

  24. Radar really lighting up in eastern parts of SNE with multiple severe thunderstorm warnings.

  28. Nice cells on north side of Boston. But RI and now into Attleboros seems to be the place to be.

    1. emphasis on NORTH!@()#*!@&(*#&!(*@&#(*!@&#*&!@(*#&&(!@*#&(*!@&*&#(*!&@#*(&!(*@#&(*!&@#(*&!(@*#&!(@*&#(*!@&#(*&!@(*#&(!*@&#(*!&@#(*&!(@*#&(!*&@#(*&!@(*#&(*!@&#(*!&@#(*

  29. Storm came through Sturbridge with little fan fare other than some torrential rain and a couple of lightning strikes, and some wind not too strong though, and no hail. I like the fact that I don’t have to water the flowers today though.

  30. Just a bit outside with that cell as it passes “just” to my North. NOT a DROP of RAIN here. Plenty of useless unproductive thunder!! )@!&#(&!@*()&#(*!@&(#*&!*@#

    1. I was showing Mrs. OS the pink on my RadarScope display and told her that it indicated hail. thank you for the confirmation.

      1. I saw you had said you saw pink. And I know Mrs OS does not need confirmation. You read the radar and even my kids know to listen carefully.

  32. Severe Thunderstorm up until 5pm including Boston. 60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail with this storm.

  35. A smaller, weaker cell popped just to my West and went over us dropping a whopping
    0.02 inch of rain.

    btw, this morning’s t-storms deposited 0.70 inch of rain for a 4.26 inch total for the month of June with 1 day to go.

  36. Evolving as it looked this morning. Couple of severe cells over SNE, widespread severe to the southwest. As has been the case many times this year, PA/NJ getting lit up.

    1. Thanks for checking in. Boston got a nice one, of course me being more in the
      SW section of the city MISSED IT!

  37. Another cell just popped to my NW and quickly went to red on the radar. Still “may” pass just to the North. Watching it. I have been closing and opening windows left and right.

    1. Got into this one. No thunder. Nice little, quick downpour and that was
      all she wrote. .05 inch from it.

  39. I thought it rained hard this morning in pembroke holly molly it just came down as hard as I’ve ever seen . Wow !!!!

  41. What a day yesterday.

    2 tstorm hits (6:30AM & 4:00PM), though the second one kind of went on for a while as redeveloping downpours after it took forever to get there, but during the height of it I was briefly lightning cored and had some very close hits including one that included the clean snap sound simultaneously with the flash followed just over 1 second later by the big boom (hit about 1/4 mile to my WNW).

    After that, chased south for a while and intercepted some small cells but nothing too impressive as dry air set in and killed everything.

    Went to a great fireworks display in Braintree.

    After that noticed lightning to my distant NNW so went up 95, out 2, and up 495 and ended up racing an impressive cluster of storms to Hampton Beach (I won the race, barely), and had a fab lightning show that I watched until 1AM including some video/pics.

    The blog update will be a little after 10 this morning.

    1. Thanks TK. We had our own little show just after midnight

      Great forecasting by all yesterday and guidance for those with celebrations to stay the course.

      1. We did too. Was waiting to take my dog out at 1am until it passed and then the sky turned clear right after!

        1. Wow. Good dad taking dog out at 1

          Did you have some earlier in day. I saw them heading toward your area but not sure if they went around you

          1. On the southern end of our town they had pretty good size hail. We left for the cape right when it was starting and got into the storm on 495 for quite a bit but no hail on 495.

  42. 1.65 inch at Logan yesterday. I doubt my neighborhood got 0.65 let alone over an inch.

    For me, barely any thunder with just a couple quick downpours and very brief hail at the start. No lightning either that I can recall. I suspect most Boston neighborhoods experienced the same.

      1. 0.77 for the whole day. We missed the big afternoon storm.
        Moat of that came from the morning storms.

        1. We’ll you know what they say in the real estate business…
          Location, location, location

  43. It just occurred to me that Braintree was pretty much in the path of the severe cells. And it held its course for keeping the fireworks display on. Talk about the Mets being able to advise them and their trust in the advice.

    I spoke with the fireworks company for Sutton’s yesterday and Friday. With big fourth celebrations yesterday and today, they have of course been inundated with calls. Each person at Atlas Pirovision has been has been remarkably helpful with me and I’m sure the other organizers. And I had a secret weapon….known as Topkat.

  44. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz (which I managed to get wrong)

    On average, Boston’s high temperature in July starts at 80 degrees and ends at …
    A. 79
    B. 82
    C. 85
    D. 88

    Answer later today.

  46. Sounds like New England and Pennsylvania had similar days yesterday.

    We went thru 3 rounds of showers and storms. On the 2nd one, we were out on a trail, thankfully, not too far. We got drenched though, and it was a nice reminder of how cold one can get when you get drenched by rain. Just minutes earlier, we had been swealtering.

    Lots of cumulus bubbling now, but not threatening. I think cold pool is centered to far to my northeast.

  48. Some of these storms have severe thunderstorm warnings in the Hudson River Valley of NY and northern parts of Fairfield County in CT.

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