Tuesday Forecast

62 Comments

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)
High pressure dominates the weather through midweek with warm to marginally hot weather and a gradual increase in humidity, but staying below oppressive levels through Thursday. We’ll see some high altitude smoke, as we have periodically, due to an active Canadian fire season. By Friday, it will be muggyfest 2019 as some tropical air gets in, combined with the passage of a low pressure area and cold front, which will result in a showery and possibly thunderstormy day. Not looking for severe weather, at least in a widespread sense, but we’ll have to watch the system for that. Heavy downpours are more likely to be the issue. A few days to iron those details out. Dry weather and lower humidity will be back in time for the start of the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Patchy smoke aloft. Highs 81-88. Wind W up to 10 MPH but still some light coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clear but some smoke aloft. Lows 58-65. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 85-92, except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-91, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms possible after midnight. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Muggy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lowering humidity. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)
General west to east flow with mean high pressure ridge position in the Midwest. Minimal threat of showers/thunderstorms at times, with a slight chance July 14, and another risk later July 15 into July 16, based on the timing of systems in the jet stream. Temperatures in this pattern should average somewhat above normal, but not overly hot.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)
General west to east flow with mean high pressure ridge position in the Upper Plains. Slightly greater risk of passing showers/thunderstorms at times with disturbances being able to gather a bit more energy and moisture with a slight trough in the Northeast. Temperatures in the pattern are variable, but not too far from normal overall.

62 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks Tk . Need another dry weekend as I have 4 jobs going and than the following weekend is vacation so busy stretch on tap .

  4. Thank you, TK.

    SSK, I believe you’ll have a dry weekend coming up. The consensus is that the t-storms on Friday should be over by Friday night, with a dry Saturday and Sunday.

  6. What a beautiful morning. I just hope it doesn’t get too warm. 85 would be a nice cap, but I fear it WILL exceed that. I am expecting close to 90 at my house give or take a degree or 2. Keep that humidity low. Current Logan dp is 54. Let’s KEEP it that way!!!

    1. Today should be okay, but with high pressure on top of us and then sliding south and east dewpoints will rise. I wish the high pressure areas would be stationary for a couple of weeks. Park to our northwest and stay put. Not going to happen, of course.

      1. Thanks Joshua,
        Yes, I know today will be sort of OK.
        My wife has a Dr. appointment tomorrow that she really needs to make. That is my concern. Eric last night indicated dp of
        55 for tomorrow, but temps around 90. That would be marginal, but we are hopeful it will be ok. If temps are too high no matter the dp, it can be problematic, but the dp is the real killer. She was REALLY sick on this past Saturday when the temp was 95 and dp 73 heat index 102.

        1. This makes me so sad. It is awful that something that cannot be avoided takes such a toll on the health of some. I have my money on TK for July!!!

        2. You’re right. It’s the dewpoint. I’m sorry to hear about your wife. I was sick as well this past weekend. Had a summer cold earlier in the week, but that had abated by then. The heat and humidity did me in on Saturday. That will happen again soon, and it looks to be a rinse and repeat sort of thing throughout the summer. About 60 days left of this kind of cycle. Doesn’t mean it’ll be hot and humid all 60 days. In fact, it’ll probably only be `unbearable’ 15 of the 60 days. But, we’ll need to get through those 15 days.

          2. I am getting a bad feeling now that through the rest of the summer, the “uncomfortable” days will outnumber the “comfortable” ones.

  7. 80° down here in Sarasota dew points will be 75-80°. This is not the place to be if your body can’t tolerate the humidity. At 64 years old I’ve been blessed with excellent health and I can handle the humidity down here. I’ve been a member of a gym for 15 years this I believe holds off a lot of health issues as we age.

    1. I am a few weeks out from my 72nd birthday. I have always been able to tolerate
      the humidity and I still can, but it is beginning to get a bit more difficult to do so.
      It seems to be affecting me more this year.

      1. The humidity has been getting to me since I left my teens. Back then, I used to play outside as if it didn’t exist. My mother used to beg me to come inside.

    1. Our niece lives in Melbourne, not all that far from that location.
      Her husband loves skiing and I am sure he will be heading there. 🙂

      1. Cool, JP Dave. Looks like a nice resort. Kind of perfect skiing week, with snow in the forecast every day and not too cold.

  10. Dp at Logan = 49

    JPD – Too bad your wife’s appointment isn’t today. Good luck tomorrow! 🙂

    It still should be decent tomorrow though.

    1. Thanks Philip. We’re not canceling, so she wilk try. If it stays dry, she’ll be ok.
      It is pretty warm now, but house is nice.
      no ac just yet pro wilk turn on a bit later.

  11. What a great day down here in Virginia. Temps in the 80s with dew points in mid 60s. For the time of year down here this is nice and a repeat performance tomorrow.

        1. Since they do a better job as stewards of the earth, perhaps we should return it to them.

    1. As depicted, a pretty potent Tropical Storm. Wouldn’t take much to push
      it to hurricane status. A July hurricane? pretty cool.

  15. The 12z ECMWF seems to have lost its year long cold bias. Actually it’s temp forecasts have been better for about a week or so due to some corrections / updates.

  16. A couple thoughts of mine on the current “items of interest”, locally and nationally…

    On Barry-to-be: Definitely will be a serious storm for the Gulf states. If nothing else because of the rain/flooding threat, though wind and surge could also be concerns if it becomes a hurricane, which is very possible. Too early to say how much, if any, of its moisture will impact our area.

    On our potential for a record hot July, as suggested by Eric F: I’m a little torn on this. We’re running a decent + anomaly through the first week or so, but nothing earth-shattering. We may add to it a little through the weekend, but again, not enough to set us up for a monthly record. Next week will probably be the key. If we string together several days of mid-upper 90s (maybe a 100 or two?), we’ll have a shot, but I suspect we may cool, relatively speaking, towards the last 7-10 days of the month. We’d need to build a cushion before then. So I buy a better than 50/50 shot at top 10 warmest. Number 1, probably too much to ask for. Of course, the overriding theme here is that we are gearing up for a hot stretch. One question mark is going to be whether it’s more in the way of dry heat or humid heat. Barry will likely play a major role in deciding that.

    1. And when I say “our”, I speak to SNE, though much of the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes regions are largely in the same boat.

    2. Thank you, WxW

      Funny how my mind inaccurately relates hot days to days that are humid. We were in high 80s today. Maybe we touched 90….my system is not reliable just now. We were up in the numbers the last two days, but I have not run AC. The thermostat says the house temp is an even 80. But I have just the ceiling fan running and it is lovely.

      1. It’s such a difference maker! If you have a dew point under 60, it’s pretty hard, in this region, for it to get hot enough to make it uncomfortable for most people. Plus it cools off quickly in the evenings. Conversely, those high 60s and especially 70+ dew points are misery makers.

    3. Leaning toward a dry sort-of heat, dewpoints not excessive most of the time, and temps more like upper 80s and lower 90s versus too many mid-upper 90s. There is still plenty of moisture in the ground around here that will keep us from getting super hot. That of course can add somewhat to the humidity but I don’t think it’s quite enough to have a major impact there either.

      I think our humid spikes will be shorter-lived than our lower to moderate humidity episodes. Still see nothing in reliable guidance that makes me think we’re going to be coming close to setting any records this month for heat, or August for that matter.

      3. I tend to think the lower humidity periods will be more prevalent as well. That’ll be a big player in the monthly average too. Seems all are months that contend for a near record warm spot are driven there by the warm overnight lows of extended humid stretches.

  19. July 9th and still building little snowmen on Mount Jefferson today. Awesome!

    Ryan Knapp‏ @WXKnapper · 57m57 minutes ago

    Lil Frosty pointing out work (@MWObs) for me from the Jefferson snow patch today – neat to finally see the patch up close and it’s still looking good too despite it being nearly mid-July. Looking ahead though, it’s days are looking numbered… #nhwx #nh #mountain #snow – at Mount Jefferson

    https://twitter.com/WXKnapper/status/1148706673529409536

    1. In addition to the snow, note how thick the smoke is in the sky up there. Per Ryan Knapp, so thick you could smell it, especially at that elevation.

      1. It got here earlier than I had written about yesterday which is why I added it to today’s forecast as well. The NW flow pattern is delivering a lot of plumes. Last year’s pattern kept the early summer fires’ smoke away from here for the most part.

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