Wednesday Forecast

59 Comments

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)
Another day of smoke in the atmosphere from Canada. It’s not that Canada is having their worse fire season ever, it’s that our weather pattern has been one that transports that smoke down this way a little more than we have seen in other recent years, so just in case the media gets bored and decides to try to convince you that Canada’s burning down … it’s not. So other than high altitude smoke, what’s up? More of the same, seasonable heat and a bump up in humidity the next couple days, but not to unbearable levels just yet. That will reserve itself to a number of hours on Friday when we will also introduce the risk of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front traverses the area. Some guidance has indicated that a few thunderstorms may also develop on the leading edge of the more humid air which will pass the region Thursday, but I’m not going to buy into that at this time, just adding some more cloudiness to the forecast. Even Friday’s activity may end up rather limited as the conditions, though coming in waves, may not be all that supportive of organized or strong showers and storms. But any time you have some heat, some humidity, and a front, you should keep an eye on things just in case. Weekend? Looking great for the most part. A high pressure area returns fair and less humid weather to the region Saturday, and a weak disturbance may cause a passing shower or storm Sunday but otherwise that looks like a mainly dry day as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 85-92, except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Highs 86-91, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms possible after midnight. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms probable at times. Muggy. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lowering humidity. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower/thunderstorm. Highs 83-90, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)
General west to east flow with mean high pressure ridge position in the Midwest. Minimal threat of showers/thunderstorms at times, with a risk later July 15 into July 16, and perhaps about July 19, based on the timing of systems in the jet stream. Temperatures in this pattern should average somewhat above normal, but without prolonged high heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)
High pressure ridge may slide eastward for the July 20-21 weekend resulting in more heat, then head back to the Midwest and Upper Plains allowing the heat to ease again after that. Shower/thunderstorm threats will exist a couple times with passing disturbances, but it’s impossible to time such threats this far in advance.

59 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Though I do so the potential for 1 or 2 hotter days (maybe middle 90s) around July 20, I’m still not seeing anything that makes me even come close to thinking “record hot July”. More like, slightly above normal temperatures (a degree or 2 when it’s over) for most areas. We will see how it pans out over the next 3 weeks.

    1. I leave the 20th paying a $1,000 for a rental I’m hoping for warm and sunny beach weather.

  2. Thanks TK.
    Enjoying another great day down here in Virginia with highs in the 80s and dew points in the mid 60s. Tomorrow and Friday more typical weather down here with highs in low 90s and dew points over 70.
    30 years ago today was my first weather memory. I was five at the time when the Northeastern Tornado Outbreak happened. Multiple tornadoes happened including one that came through my area around 5pm that day and thankfully only taking the tree in the front yard down. I was home with my mom when this happened. The strongest of the outbreak happened in Hamden, CT where in an F4 happened. To this day I still say this is the biggest severe weather outbreak that occurred here in my life.

    2. I hope you have a perfect vacation, JJ. Thank you for the memory. I find it fascinating to learn how we all became interested in weather!

      1. Agreed ! Can see a surface circulation.

        Plane supposed to go out there this afternoon, looking forward to seeing what they find.

  10. I like these potential cyclone advisories.

    They are a nice intermediate step btwn being pretty certain something will develop and something that has developed.

    Another way to advise the public instead of having to wait another 24 hours to get a names system.

    1. It sure would ! I am emptying the back of our truck and the camper and would love a stronger seabreeze.

      Oh well, I keep breaking for the cold, man made sea breeze in the house 🙂

  14. The very bad news about what will be Barry is that after landfall, the steering currents to the north are pretty light, so the heavy rainfall potential into a flooded watershed is a real concern.

    1. This site seems to work in odd ways sometimes. If I scroll up on a device, I can see a name attributed to the wrong person. When I first read this comment, it had Matt’s name. Somehow it picks the name of the person beneath it. I know others this has happened to as well.

      That said, not good news at all, Tom (if you are indeed Tom 😉 )

  16. Near solstice sun + warm airmass + light wind + warm ocean = warm seabreeze ….

    All coastal areas, Logan, Cape hanging in the mid 80s even with some kind of onshore flow.

  17. Mid eighties temp 76-78 dp gulf temp 86° here in Sarasota. Just got out of the water yellow flags flying wind gusts 25-30 from ss-west strong rip currents only went in water up to my waist. Strong pressure gradient from a hp to the south of here and developing cyclone to the north.

    1. Wow – this is truly concerning.

      Excellent read. By now my father in law and I would be on the phone multiple times a day comparing notes. He would have loved this write up. It brings smiles and a few tears.

      1. Most of the spaghetti plots go to the “left” of Lake Pontchartrain in New Orleans. I seem to remember from Katrina that lake can make all the difference as to impact in terms of flooding.

  19. Well, the first recon flight is a couple hours in …..

    I think I see the broad circulation over the Gulf. I think I see the “original” circulation in the northeast part of the system. Maybe another southwest of that ?

    Anyhow, my take is the ‘core’ is not formed yet. I wonder if the center will relocate further southwest ….

    I hope they’ll do more crosses towards the center of the convection.

    1. When I say I think I see …… I’m looking at the plotted wind graphs on tropicaltidbits within aircraft recon on the site

  20. With the slow start getting off to 90 degree temps, hopefully will mean not too much above normal. Barry thinks 14-16. Hope that verifies if not less.

  21. The 2 hurricane models really deepen this system. Hwrf to 959 mb and Hmon to about 970 mb or so. Both to hurricane status.
    wonder if nhc is leaning on those forbthe track/intensity forecast.

  22. Upon review of latest guidance…
    1) Probably a low end hurricane will make landfall around the LA/TX border. This is a little west of the official track and the track on most guidance.
    2) I’m still not sold on a ton of heat up here through next week. Hot? Yes, we’ll have some hot weather, but nothing looks like it can sustain itself. That also goes for dew points. We’ll have humid days, but not a stretch of unrelenting oppressiveness.

      1. I was reminded this week that the temp doesn’t tell the entire story. We have flirted with 90 this week and I only turned AC on today because a something kind of allergic reaction I’ve been dealing with came back en force. It’s because the DPs have been low. It’s been lovely. At least to me

      2. He must be very at odds with the GFS temperature forecast, which has high temps in the 75-82 range both of those days. It will be interesting. I can see one fairly hot day in there, but I’m just not buying that we shoot to those levels so easily.

  23. Ah, I found the “hot model”. It’s the old GFS, which is still running and shows up as “GFS Legacy” on Tropical Tidbits. That temp forecast is middle to upper 90s in Boston Wed-Fri next week.

            1. Hahahaha. The classics are my favorite….with my last birthday I think I may even classify as one 😉

      2. That would be my guess. But Barry B. also mentioned the potential for mid to upper 90s and we know he’s a Euro guy.

        I’ll reassess today but I still don’t see a lot of support for that yet.

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