Thursday Forecast

66 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)
Mid July. Here we are. No heatwaves yet. But we didn’t expect that the chance of heatwaves (3 or more days of 90 degree or higher high temperatures) would be supported in this weather pattern. But we will see some hot weather in the pattern. Do we finally squeak out a heatwave in the next several days in any location? We’ll see. But odds are against it during this 5-day period. High altitude smoke remains in the sky from Canadian fires, and we can see that in and out of the region for several days to come as the upper winds shift around. Down here in the part of the atmosphere that impacts us more directly, we will feel an increase in humidity today, especially as a boundary passes the region this afternoon. Along this boundary, a shower or thunderstorm may pop up, with the greatest risk in north central to northeastern MA, and southern NH. Areas to the south will probably see nothing. Tonight, a trough will cross the region from west to east and kick off one or 2 line-clusters of showers/thunderstorms. We’ll have to watch these for torrential downpours, and there is a risk that one or 2 of the storms could produce some gusty winds. A cold front will cross the region on Friday and bring another risk of a passing shower/storm 1 or 2 times during the day, but the threat should be over by or before evening as drier and more stable air arrives from the west. This will set up a nice Saturday with high pressure in control. This high will sink to the south a little Sunday as a low pressure area crosses southeastern Canada and sends a trough through the region, but most of the shower and thunderstorm activity with this will be in northern New England, with only a slight risk of one making it down into parts of southern New England, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans for Sunday based on that minimal threat. A warm front approaches later Monday and may bring some cloudiness back but otherwise so far that looks like a nice day overall.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower/thunderstorm north central and northeastern MA and southern NH mainly between 1PM and 4PM. Increasingly humid. Highs 86-91, except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms probable after 9PM. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple passing showers/thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 80-87, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lowering humidity. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of a passing shower/thunderstorm favoring northern MA and southern NH. Highs 83-90, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Lows 62-69. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)
General west to east flow with mean high pressure ridge position in the Midwest to upper Plains. Shower and thunderstorm threats will depend on timing of disturbances. There will be a couple during the period. Something to watch for is whether or not any moisture associated with a tropical system currently in the Gulf of Mexico gets involved in our shower/thunderstorm threat around the middle of this period. Temperatures will average a little above normal overall. A brief spike of higher heat is possible.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)
Overall pattern similar, though ridge center may tend to be further west (Plains) versus east (Midwest). Will have to watch for shower and thunderstorm threats based on passing disturbances but overall much of the time will be rain-free.

66 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Great discussion. Love your details. Why can’t you be our go to on air TV met?

    btw, Mrs. Os made her Dr. appt. yesterday as the dps remained just low enough
    to get the job done. Had the appt. been today, no dice.

    Right about now, I am wishing it were October. 🙂 🙂 🙂
    I think I have transitioned to liking the cold over the hot.

    4. Great news for Mrs. OS’s dr appointment. I’ve been watching Hallmark movies and mysteries Christmas in July movies. And when they end (after two weeks), the regular Hallmark channel has theirs. Makes it feel like October 🙂

      I still do not understand why it is Christmas in July and not June since June is the halfway mark.

      1. You simply HAVE to take a look at Heartland on Netflix.
        I would shocked out of my mind if you didn’t enjoy it immensely.

        Hey perhaps you have looked and hated it? who knows.

        Cheers

  5. Thanks, TK.

    JP Dave, glad Mrs. OS made her appointment yesterday.

    Sticky factor is rising. And, I believe this is what makes people like Mrs. OS and myself ill. I consider myself physically fit. I run 3-6 miles every day and work out in addition to that for about 45 minutes a day. Yet, the humidity does me in. My body cannot handle it like it used to. It cannot properly self-regulate temperature. I notice that as I have a raised temperature (~99.5F) every afternoon and evening when it’s very humid (and warm).

    I do realize that some folks’ bodies cannot handle cold. For some reason I can, and I’m very lucky in this regard. And, this is what makes the art and science of medicine so interesting. Everyone is unique. There is no `typical’ or `average’ patient.

    2. I will also have a raised temp in the afternoon and evening when humid. I just thought it was me. Very interesting, Joshua and JPD. I just get in the habit of taking a motrin mid afternoon on the hottest days, especially if I know house will be hot.

    1. I think BB has 96F for Wednesday.

      Looks like it’s the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame for the brief heat spike.

  10. Thanks TK and good news Dave!

    TK – you were wondering what guidance Eric was looking at when he tweeted again yesterday that we were “going to bake” next week. In the tweet that I posted, he showed a loop of the EPS Euro ensemble mean for next week. I assume that is the primacy source of his and Barry’s comments, along with some support from the “legacy” GFS.

    1. Thank you, Mark. I enjoy knowing where information comes from. If I can find it, I can usually find out even more. It’s a great way to learn.

  12. Current recon plane :

    In the convection on the south side of the system, the flight level winds have increased from yesterday.

    The center appears displaced to the north of the strongest winds. Could also continue to be multiple swirls within a large circulation.

  15. JPD – Glad that your wife made it to her appointment ok! Unfortunately even hotter times ahead. My hope is that they will be very brief and not a bunch of consecutive days as I don’t like HHH either. I will be thinking of her as we all will. Being uncomfortable is one thing but health threatening is quite another. Good luck for the season! 🙂

    1. I have ordered yet another ultra quiet AC and am picking it up this PM.
      That will give us four (4) brand new state of the art QUIET air conditioners.
      These things are AWESOME and well worth the extra cost.

      1. I’m thinking of supplementing our ac with window ACs. I
        Notice a neighbor does. Do you mind sharing the brand?

        1. Not at all. I thought I had mentioned it.

          It is a GE Ultra Quiet 6150 btu model and I purchased
          them at Lowes.

              1. I bought 2 6,000 GE units but not yours . They work decent the central does not work up stairs so last year I put one in our bedroom & this year my sons .

      2. Mitsubishi Split Systems is well worth the $$$$

        Roughly $3,500 to $4,000 plus the cost of a electrician to install new circuit. It heats and cools your rooms and can stand up to any heat wave. You also get a rebate for this unit as well around $500.

        1. We have a mini – not mitubish. My SIL installed and at cost It only covers the room that runs over the two car garage and was not included in our central air and spills over to their family room.

          In all honesty, we ran window ACs in Framingham and the cost was not high at all. Maybe 75-100 more for the two months. To upgrade an electrical system and install was not cost effective.

          1. I dont think a condenser would go inside. Ours sits just above ground level with the duct running to the cooling unit which is mounted on the wall in the room.

          1. That is cool with the summer thunderstorms.

            We saw that occasionally in PA where you’d see a soaked road suddenly transition to dry.

            But not one storm missed the campground, lol !!!

  19. 12z GFS, I assume I’m looking at the new version, has 18c to 20c from next Wednesday to Sunday, with the warmest 20c isotherm towards next Saturday and Sunday ….

    Ok ….. well ….. onto the 12z Euro …..

      1. Kind of like Sutton that is bone dry while Uxbridge was clobbered although we were hoping for some thunder.

  21. The difference between “The Legacy” and “The Ordinary New & ‘Improved’ GFS” for the July 20-21 weekend is laughable. Which one will be right? 😉 Maybe neither?!

      1. So far it’s been OK but it still has a few issues. The ECMWF (Euro) has had its cool temp bias corrected. It’s ahead of the GFS right now. So looks like the Euro won this round of “upgrades” just in a general sense. We’ll see how that flies as we head into the colder months down the road.

        1. Cliff Mass did a comparison a while back that I believe I posted here. Well, I think it was Mr. Mass. But it is interesting to see them try to compete – in what seems like a nice way. This will indeed be interesting. Thank you for keeping us up to date!

  22. Hi JPD – I just saw your comment re Hartland and I had forgotten about it. I’m trying to keep up with the Christmas in July movies and after that will check Hartland. This time, I put a reminder on my calendar. I suspect my oldest may enjoy it also. She is riding again – not that she ever stopped loving riding but the opportunity was not there when her kids were younger.

    2. Music Choice (Comcast) has been playing “Christmas in July” on their Sounds of the Seasons station for a few days. They usually go for about a week sometime after the Fourth of July music ends.

      1. I’m oddly not ready for the music except for dribs and drabs but do enjoy the movies. But I think it is fun for anyone who wishes to listen.

        1. I had it on for about a half dozen songs on the way home from central MA late the other night. 😉

  23. It feels like how it should feel down here in Virginia for July. Temps in low 90s dew points low to mid 70s. It sounds like a real SWEATORAMA is coming middle of next week up there.

  24. Years ago Filene’s Basement would have their “Christmas in July” sales. You could get good deals on Christmas decorations and other items.

  25. A small portion of west-central NH is having a serious small scale rainfall event this evening with flooding.

  26. Good morning, pretty decent soaking last night. Looks like we picked up 1.15” here in Sturbridge. I like it when Mother Nature helps out a bit and does the outside watering for me, one less thing to do in the morning before heading out the door. 🙂

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