38 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

1. thank you TK. Quite a beautiful morning.

2. Good morning and thank you TK.
   Although it is still a tad on the muggy side, it is decidedly better than yesterday!!

3. Thanks TK !

4. Thank you, TK.

   Vicki, I know what you mean when you say it’s hard to swallow the fact that so many fans in your home stadium are rooting for the other team. I will say that I actually like it that certain fans travel well. Dodgers are a fan base that travels very well. Cubs and Cardinals are similar. Believe it or not, Royals fans are loyal, too. Judging from all the families I saw in Boston yesterday decked out in Dodger blue I believe that some made it a summer trip. By the way, Red Sox and Yankees have awesome fan bases, too. Some travel to see the team, but many just support them from wherever they live. Based on the media you would think that baseball parks would be mostly empty, like they were in many markets in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s! While baseball is currently relatively less popular compared to basketball and football, and has lost many young fans (though it depends on the demographic; the nation’s fastest growing demographic is Hispanic, and baseball remains very popular among the Hispanic youth), attendance is still really good for a sport that plays 162 regular season games. In fact, in most markets attendance is much better than it was in the 1970s.

   1. I agree with some. Red Sox have a great fan base willing to travel if they are winning. I always enjoy other team fans. It is that a huge portion of the fan base in Boston only supports its team when it is winning. It is certainly not new but does speak volumes about our society

      And on that note…because everyone certainly knows this is a major pet peeve of mine…..it is an absolutely glorious weather morning. Wow.

      1. As for college sports, Boston College fans do not travel well. The only exception was in 1985 when Doug Flutie played in the Cotton Bowl on that New Year’s Day.

      2. Depends on the sport. I think Bruins fans are the most loyal (so attend and support, win or lose). Believe it or not, I think Patriots fans are the least loyal. That sounds counter-intuitive only because the Pats have been winning for 20 years. When the Patriots were losing their fan base was very, very meager.

5. According to Barry, HOT from Wednesday through next weekend. 🙁

   1. TK also calling for above normal temps, but not excessive heat. Just hot July weather. If we get more prolific rainfall than currently expected on Thursday, it will be less hot, but probably very humid.

      1. I can imagine if remains of Barry arrive they will bring southern humidity.

      2. And who is this TK you speak of?

         1. No idea. I’m not even sure if they are a real person………

            1. I have often wondered about this. Everyone..,including me….posts to this TK person. I don’t see anyone here with those initials. Very odd indeed.

   2. I think of normal summer weather as hot. It’s 86 here …maybe 84 if I subtract two for sun……and 63 DP. But there is a lovely light breeze so quite nice.

6. Beautiful image from today’s Tour de France (cyclists riding through a field of sunflowers):

   https://nos.nl/data/image/2019/07/03/560877/480×270.jpg

   And, from Paris, as another Bastille Day approaches, France shows off its military. Below is a link to a French marine operating a flyboard during a practice run prior to tomorrow’s big event. Virtually all of our military terms have been adopted from the French language (from artillery to battalion to cavalry to many, many others). Keep in mind, Trump was inspired by France’s way of doing parades, not authoritarian regimes. He and Melania attended the Bastille Day parade in 2017 and Trump was quoted as saying “we should do something like that back home.” The French parade is about as militaristic and bombastic as you can get; with tanks, armored personnel carriers, fighter jets galore, etc …

   https://jeugdjournaal.nl/artikel/2293297-soldaat-vliegt-op-flyboard-door-parijs.html?ext=html

7. Thank you TK

8. I think Tuesday (90ish) and Wednesday (low to mid 90s) are decent bets as hot weather next week.

   After that, Thursday to next weekend, model consistency has been low for how warm to hot it will be.

   The models have been inconsistent with the 500 mb flow over New England. Flatter flow with higher heights is warmer. More NW flow with lower heights is less warm.

   I tend to buy into hotter times ahead for two reasons.

   The AO is headed towards neutral, even slightly positive, finally !! cooling off the arctic.

   The NAO is headed for neutral, maybe slightly positive.

   Both these teleconnections favor the jet stream being more zonal, less NW flow over New England with 500 dm heights averaging 582-588 dm.

   So, with that, I am interested to see if the very hot shot of air at day 8 on the Euro this morning shows any consistency in future runs.

   1. Thank you, Tom. Very interesting.

9. Thank you TK.
   Beautiful day thus far 🙂

10. So the NHC declared Barry a hurricane before landfall.

    Not only was it not a hurricane, but it made landfall over 2 hours before they said it did. I really wish they would stop playing games with the public.

    All observations available (satellite, recon) showed max winds 63 knots. There were NO sustained winds of 65 knots (the minimum speed you need sustained winds for to declare a tropical system a hurricane) or higher observed anywhere. Surface obs from locations they were claiming the center was still southeast of were showing WEST winds clearly indicating the center had gone by them and was largely over land by then.

    So, they claim that Hurricane Barry made landfall late Saturday morning, when in fact Tropical Storm Barry made landfall at mid morning. Too bad it won’t go into the records books correctly. Shameful.

    1. Very curious. I had seen it was upgraded at 11:30 but not sure if that was central time. I am watching on tv and saw it was immediately downgraded to a T.S. Where did they get info re sustained 75 mph winds? Amazing watching the homes that appear to be near ocean and on stilts with water under them.

       But I know with the hurricane that traveled up the west coast of FL last year the photos from above focused over and over on a few places with damage. That tends to make it look worse of course…..and I’m not diminishing the damage because that is very real

       1. They will end up with serious flooding from the rain that falls on the already pretty full Mississippi River Sunday & Monday. That’s what they should be really focused on.

          I’ve been seeing posts similar to mine above on the pages of my FB friends who are meteorologists. It’s kind of funny to see us all in an agreeing tizzy today. 😉

          1. Don’t blame them. Can you write or call them?

             The focus I saw before and now is definitely on flooding.

             1. I could, but it would be ignored. That’s government for you. The thinking has become like the corporate mindset: “follow the business model!”

                1. Hmmmmmmmm

                   1. The one person I would have loved to talk to in person at last year’s SNE Weather Conference was not there because he had a wedding to go to! And of course, because of lost planning time due to gov’t shutdown etc. they are taking 2019 off, so the next one is in 2020!

                      1. Well that is a shame. But y know how I feel about directing problems to the source. Ya never know. And most important, that goes with compliments. Too often people only hear complaints. Everyone should hear even more praise.

11. Suddenly the 12z GFS model says that a high temp about 77 is ok enough for Boston on Wednesday. HAHAHA!

12. Flight last night out of Tampa was bumpy probably from the out flow from Barry. What a difference getting into the ocean in Narragansett this afternoon compared to yesterday down in Sarasota. Sea breeze evaporating cumulus nice and clear here at the coast.

13. Vicki, I agree. I think in general the NWS does an incredible job. The problems are not being initiated by the forecasters. Unfortunately, they probably feel the need in some ways to compete with all the other media. The overseers probably know no other way.

14. The following is from SAK…

    Two observations along the Louisiana shoreline, in the general vicinity of landfall, that were reporting westerly winds and rising pressures 4-6 hours before NHC declared “landfall”.

    1. Pecan Island – https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=D7368&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325&fbclid=IwAR2Uy9I62LmxHsy_Tzx2LzwCNbGvhhUoqy8Gn_ERKARYYyM6c3UJxlrlFh8

    2. Freshwater Canal – https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=FRWL1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325&fbclid=IwAR2Uy9I62LmxHsy_Tzx2LzwCNbGvhhUoqy8Gn_ERKARYYyM6c3UJxlrlFh8

    There’s your “ground truth” that the NHC put out a load off bullcrap this morning. We have the right to be very disappointed.

    1. TK I know you are correct. I will challenge you both to write. It would be awesome to hear back but there is more. As much as we appreciate the knowledge shared here, it accomplishes nothing. No one makes a difference until he stands for what is right.

       And dear heavens I sound like my mom.

15. 40,000 out of power in Manhattan. It was just about to the day of 1977. I sort of recall that but the 1965 is more memorable to me

    1. The 1965 blackout is probably more memorable because the entire northeast was affected while 1977 it was only New York iirc. There was also a major blackout there in August 2003.

       1. Absolutely. 2003 we were at Humarock. Sadly for me and not my family, we did not lose power. People were still jumpy then since it was so close to 2001. I remember calling Macs parents so they would not worry

          And in 1965, I went outside on my own to walk Around the reservoir across the street. MassBay knows where it is. I had no fear. Amazing and horribly sad how just over three decades things can change

          1. Yes, the fear from 9/11 was still there. There may still be random thoughts of terrorism in NYC tonight from a precious few. Hope they get their power back on soon.

             1. The fear is here to stay sadly. It was here before 2001 but reinforced by it. I think our generation was the last to be able to roam freely as younguna. I would hope the risk spots have back up plans. Otherwise, all should be fine

16. New post! (in case you haven’t found it yet)

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