Monday Forecast

55 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)
An area of high pressure moves in from the west today providing warm but dry air. The high slips to the south with a little more in the way of humidity but still fairly comfortable Tuesday, but when a warm front comes across the region in the evening you’ll notice the humidity start to elevate more significantly, setting up 3 classic humid summer days. In the warm sector between behind that warm front and ahead of a cold front we run risk of a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, then with the front in the area and the remnant moisture from Barry coming across the region Thursday, that will be when we see the most numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. The weather will dry out Friday, but the air will not, and it will be a hot and humid day but without the thunderstorm risk.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. More humid. Highs 82-89. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms possible mainly late-day. Humid. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely late at night. Humid. Lows 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Very humid. Highs 80-87. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible evening. Very humid. Lows 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 90-97, slightly cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)
July 20-21 weekend will be very warm to hot but with lowering humidity and only a risk of a passing shower/thunderstorm later on July 20. Generally west to east flow pattern will dominate with mean high pressure ridge Midwest to Upper Plains with temperatures slightly above normal to near normal later in the period, plenty of dry weather but also the risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm at times.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)
Overall pattern similar, but a slightly westward movement of the high pressure ridge in the center may increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms slightly here, though still not a return to a very wet pattern. Much of the time would be rain-free. Temperatures closer to normal.

55 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Not that the GFS will be 100% correct, but not liking what it showing for
    Saturday and Sunday. Around 100 for Boston both days. NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!

    I guess we’ll find out one way or the other. 🙂

        1. Yes….
          mid to upper 80s is all, BUT keep in mind, my
          Euro service sucks at high temps as it takes
          the temperature at 18Z and adds a couple of degrees
          AND if there is no 18Z display it takes 12Z and adds
          about 5 degrees. Best to use actual grid for the
          time period. Ie 12z, 18Z, 0Z OR also look at 850mb.

          In the middle of something. will check in a moment.

          2. Yes, it shows about 88 for Friday and Saturday
            of this week.

            However, both days most of SNE is between
            the 20 and 24C 850MB temp contours, indicating
            that a high of 88 is likely misguided!!

            20C could have a high of 95.5
            21C could have a high of 97.3
            22C could have a high of 99.1

            No matter how you slice it, that shapes up to
            be 2 pretty damn HOT days.

  7. I wonder Wednesday night, when Barry’s remnants move through, if we’re susceptible to a few ‘spin-ups’ ?

    Very high dewpoints, possible S/SE sfc winds somewhere in east-central New England, some veering of wind with height, etc ……

    1. I was wondering about possible severe….now that you mention
      spin ups….12Z NAM College of Dupage Soundings indicate
      a threat of tornado for Wed evering between 8 and 11 PM.
      And a pretty decent threat at that. Here is the sounding results:

      https://imgur.com/a/B9KqtMv

    1. I usually don’t have much of any concern until the SREF highlights an area.
      The sounding threats on Pivotal and COD generally are way over done.

      I posted the sounding in response to what Tom posted.

      CAPE is about 1500 joules with AMPLE helicity so if we get any convective
      cells going, rotation could be a possibility. Something to watch anyway, even
      if nothing pans out.

  9. The heat is going to be the big story later in the week and I would make sure AC is working and hopefully what is coming later this week will be the worst of the heat for the summer. Climatology were at the hottest part of the year.

    1. I certainly hope so.

      To keep our kitchen cool in 100 degree heat, I’ll have to crank it up
      1st thing in the morning and let it rip all day long.

      It will serve as a good test for my new ACs.

  10. I am hoping the last part of Eric’s tweet pans out.
    A lot of heat continuing next ~10 days…pretty much all upper 80s to mid 90s in the Greater Boston area. Some end of the month relief looks to follow

  12. Looking at 12Z GFS

    84 for Friday
    100 Saturday
    100 Sunday
    102 Monday
    97 Tuesday
    84 Wednesday

    That is potentially DEADLY heat!!!

    Frankly, I am very concerned.

    Of course one model run does NOT make it so. Going to look at Euro for comparison.

    1. If they call 3 consecutive days of 90+ a heat wave, what do they call
      3 consecutive days of 100+?????

      SUANA
      SUPER HEAT WAVE
      HEAT WAVE PLUS
      HEAT WAVE ON STERIODS
      MEGA HEAT WAVE
      MAXI HEAT WAVE
      GARGANTUAN HEAT WAVE

      I dunno, but whatever you call it, it is BRUTAL the likes of which I am not sure I have ever experienced.

    2. Euro is hot with one day 850 MB temps WELL above 20 C which is 95+
      Other days around 20C which is 95 or so. So plenty hot, but not quite as
      extreme as the GFS.

      We shall see.

  13. CMC and JMA Back door us on Monday cooling us considerably for
    Monday/Tuesday… Ahhhhh that would be nice!!!

  15. I sure hope they cancel my son’s baseball game on Saturday if it is going to be that hot. No one needs to be exerting themselves in that heat, even 11 year olds.

    1. Do they have lights at the fields, Sue? Maybe they can be moved to Friday/Saturday night?

      1. No lights unfortunately. Ok, so selfishly I also don’t want to sit in that heat and watch the game. There is absolutely no shade at the field.

        1. Maybe they can move the games to the early morning, twilight? Is it a weekend tournament? A lot of teams?

    2. I agree, Sue. Kids get dehydrated very quickly not to mention other consequences of heat that high.

  16. Thanks mucho, TK…
    One of the top days of summer and year today, I believe, and we have had a lot!

    If you haven’t heard or read, tomorrow marks the 50th anniversary of the liftoff of the Apollo 11 man on the moon mission. There are quite a few quality specials and series about the first moon landing on a number of channels, including The Smithsonian Channel, National Geographic, History…CBS has a one-hour special tomorrow night at 10 pm…I have learned and remembered a lot watching these specials. One thing I never knew is that the Soviets launched Luna 15 the same week as Apollo 11. Luna 15 was supposed to scoop up lunar dust and return back to Earth before Apollo 11 did.
    Luna 15 made it to the Moon, but crashed on the lunar surface, allegedly 740 miles to the north of Tranquility Base.

    I never knew that!

    1. Thank you very much, Captain. I’m going to set at least CBS to record. I’ll see if I can find others. I still get the same chills when I hear about the landing as I did watching it.

    2. Son and family heading to Mt Washington area to camp this weekend. Do you think temps are expected to be lower up that way?

      1. Yes, I believe the temperatures will be lower than here. Even at the base, Pinkham Notch, it’s hardly ever as hot as it is in the Boston area. My point of reference is having climbed Mt. Washington in 1982, 1995, and 2002 during summer heatwaves in SNE. That doesn’t mean it’ll be cool. It will hot, but probably 5-10 degrees cooler than Boston. And, as you meander up the mountain Hermit Lake Shelters will be 10-20 degrees cooler than Boston, and the summit up to 35 degrees cooler than Boston. That would be my prediction.

  19. Hopefully, the 00z Euro will offer something that will argue against the 21-22C (850 mb temps) the GFS has moving in Friday and continuing through Saturday.

    I don’t know though, the 500 mb high seems to be projecting slightly stronger and stronger with each run.

    1. We had this issue last summer when they kept tweeting out guidance #’s that everybody took verbatim then wondered why it didn’t get that hot.

      This is when it starts to get on my nerves that they do this for shock value.

      1. Guidance sucks for temps. Eric’s tweets are not helping. I’m usually ok with most of the things he does, this one I’m not. But it’s his Twitter. I just don’t think it’s helping people’s perception of what’s coming.

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