Sunday Forecast

121 Comments

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)
More hot weather today. In fact a few places may exceed yesterday’s heat but a little bit with more of a westerly air flow and a slight drying out of the air mass. But the heat is not going to be long-lived. Having only arrived on Friday it’s ready to make its exit tonight. Will it break with big thunderstorms? Maybe in a few places, but probably not in many, as only a few scattered ones are expected along and ahead of a cold front which will cross the region during the early hours of Monday. And now to make some adjustments to the forecast. I’ve been playing things optimistic, but there is more and more evidence that we are about to entire a fairly short-lived period of near to below normal temperatures and somewhat unsettled weather. By unsettled I don’t necessarily mean days of rain, but rather days where cloudiness will be more prevalent and the chance of some wet weather will be around. The front that comes through early Monday will never really move that far away, and it will allow a couple waves of low pressure to move along it. Right now it looks like the first of them will bring some showery weather late Monday, especially at night, into early Tuesday, before moving away. It’s a second wave that is more uncertain, with some guidance bringing it right in with another round of rainfall on Wednesday, while other guidance keeps it southeast of the region. I’m staying with the keeping it offshore idea for now. By Thursday, weak high pressure should be back with fair weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Isolated very light showers possible this morning. Isolated thunderstorms possible late in the day. Humid. Highs 93-100, hottest interior valleys, except 85-92 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms possible. Moderately humid. Lows 63-70. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind light W.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87 but may cool back to 70s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)
Weak high pressure controls the weather July 26 with mainly dry weather but we may have to watch a sea breeze boundary for a possible trigger of a shower or thunderstorm. Modified summer heat returns for the July 27-28 weekend, not to the degree of this weekend, with a shower or thunderstorm threat absent on July 27 but likely present on July 28 with a front moving into the area. This front will likely wash out but may still possibly trigger a shower or thunderstorm with seasonable heat and humidity around for July 29-30.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31-AUGUST 4)
Seasonable warmth and a risk of a few showers/thunderstorms July 31. Summer heat may return for the first few days of August with limited shower/thunderstorm chances.

121 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. I expect to see some somber meteorologists kicking the dirt and going aw shucks because we didn’t hit triple digits on any giant thermometers this weekend.

    1. Debris. Another reason that I used for lower temperature forecasts by a few degrees this weekend.

      I saw a whole lot of blind model following and it was rather disturbing to be honest.

  6. Good morning, everyone and thanks as always, TK…

    86 and climbing right now after an early morning minimum of 73.2

    Can one of you explain this?: “Heat lightning.” Does lightning “travel” better in the air mass we have? I believe that I saw some lightning here in Taunton from the cell in central Mass last night. No thunder.
    As a kid, I believed in “heat lightning.” Is there something to lightning being more visible in extreme heat and humidity or it just a coincidence or a wife’s tale.

    I hope everyone is managing well in this weather, particularly Mrs. OS.

    How was the ball game yesterday, Sue? Did we win??? 🙂

    Stay cool, y’all…

    1. I believe that term is derived from viewing lightning from a distant storm that
      is so far away, that no thunder can be heard. Why heat? Perhaps because many thunder storms come with warm to hot weather?

      https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-heat

      mrs. OS made it through yesterday but it did make her physically sick.
      Now if we can get through today, hopefully all will be well. Thank you.

    2. Captain…I posted on FB in response to heat lightning yesterday. OS as always is correct.

      I had a dear friend and coworker years ago who was a professor at MIT. He was well past retirement but worked as consultant at the company where I worked. He was an expert in ferroresonance. The professor, Chester L. Dawes, was probably one of the finest individuals I had the pleasure to know. He would sit for hours quietly explaining. Heat lightning is one of the wonderful discussions I recall. Back then, though, no one believed he was right. Heat lightning was real. Period.

      But this is pretty much what he told me

      https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/heat-lightning-explained

  7. Although it started out cloudless, some cloudiness is over the city perhaps to
    be accompanied by a brief shower. Then what???

    It is up to 91 at Logan. My thermometer is reading 87.

  9. Complete overcast here in Amesbury. I’m guessing the lack of sunshine will keep the temps down.

  10. Thank you TK

    There is enough moisture in the air that raindrops from last nights storm are still hanging onto my windows. Guess there is no place to evaporate to

  12. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the highest DP ever recorded in July for Boston?

    A. 75
    B. 77
    C. 79
    D. 81

    Answer later today. I managed to get this wrong.

    2. C.

      Boston’s never reached 80 for a dew point, but I know they have been above 77, and I’m pretty sure it was a July of long ago if memory serves.

      I did see an 80+ dew point at Worcester I believe in the early 1980s (1982).

      1. After we get the answer revealed later I am going to look up some dew point stats to see about our notable dew points. We only tend to talk about it in the summer…

  14. Partial sun now here. Awhile ago it was even getting a bit dark. On radar the showers that were around 128 just to the west must have broken up before before reaching the city and moved offshore. Hopefully no more threats the rest of today.

  15. That “interruption” was the debris we’ve talked about. It’s moving swiftly. Had a brief very light shower in Woburn near the 95/93 interchange.

  16. The 12z NAM looks like it’s back to the idea of quicker wet weather and sooner return to dry. It’s going to give up the idea of a wet Wednesday.

    This is why I won’t change my forecast model run to model run. It’s more than that.

  17. Thank you TK!

    Captain…it was a hot morning in Carver but we pulled off the win!!! One of the other baseball moms brought a pop-up canopy so at least we had shade.

  18. So that passing cloud didn’t ruin anyone’s month, I hope. 😉

    I know somebody who gets upset when there are fair weather cumulus casting shadows at the beach. OH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! 😉

    In a perfect world, every day would be 100% sunny and the exact temperature you want from start to finish, and your favorite team would have zero losses and win every game by shut-out. How boring would that be? Thank GOODNESS we live in an imperfect world. 😉

    1. I wasn’t surprised by it nor bothered by it in the least 🙂 It was mentioned here a few times the last few days.

      1. The only thing I wasn’t sure of was the exact location and timing of debris. I was pretty sure we’d see a shield of high cloudiness (thicker to the west and south) yesterday from the storm complex the evening before, and I was pretty sure we’d see something trying to make its way down out of northern New England today. It ran a little earlier than I expected, and also contained a few sprinkles which were a partial (but not total) surprise.

        The only surprise so far this weekend for me were the downpours that popped as far east as the MA/RI border last evening. To the west, yes, but I didn’t think the atmosphere would support it to the east. It did.

        1. What’s so wrong about a perfect world? I think I could get used to that. Of course I don’t realistically expect shutouts from the Celtics. Quarterly duckboat parades annually around here from our teams would suit me just fine. 🙂

    1. Stupid question: Can one be struck by heat lightning just like the typical lightning during thunderstorms? Or is it too far away in the distance?

      1. Heat lightning IS typical lightning. Please see discussion above.

        And yes, it would be too far away.

  22. I’m seeing the Mets getting some grief for their over-hype of the heat this weekend and their use of the heat index charts. In those discussion, someone has the “when I was a kid comment …..”

    Consider into the discussion that :

    The heat index calculator was created in 1978 and began being used by the National Weather Service in 1979. So, a person of 50 today, recollecting back would have been that young kid of 10 in 1979. So, there was never any use heat indices for someone now muddled age, during the child-hood.

    Presently, 89% of US households have some kind of A/C, whereas, in 1979, 59% of all US households had some type of A/C. Dig deeper, 29% of those A/C’s in 1979 were central, where 72% are now. So, 40 years ago, about 1 in 4 houses see cool no matter which room, where 3 in 4 houses are today.

    so, yes, of course, we were probably more tolerant of the heat 40 years ago
    because, psychologically, we didn’t know we were sitting in air that felt like 105F and also, more people had to deal with it, because a lot less people had access to cooling of any kind or wide spread cooling within a whole house.

    But, I don’t think that changes that this was a potentially dangerous hit episode and I think it’s ok for the Mets to alert people to it. I’m glad both the temp and heat indices fell a bit short.

    1. Perhaps the high temps fell short of the hype, BUT the dew points did not, in
      fact they over achieved leading to the actual heat index hype values.
      At one point yesterday the HI was 115 !!! that is about as high as it gets around here. I can attest the house felt that way for sure! BRUTAL!!

      Today, so far not nearly as brutal. Bad enough, but not brutal.

      1. Extreme and prolonged heat, just as cold, is far more risky though because a larger segment of health compromised folks are tossed into the mix

        1. Exactly. At least this time it’s only just into the extreme category and not prolonged, so that will at least diminish the risk somewhat.

          1. I Agree. I do not understand this pushback re the Mets stressing the importance of being careful, though. The dangerous part is that, even though it is short-lived, there has not been a break overnight which as you know can make a difference to those who struggle.

    4. I never for a moment trashed mets for alerting people. I was one of those alerting people to the heat danger. MY issue is with their bosses, the hype-fueling greedy s.o.b.’s who are using something that impacts people to gain views and therefore gain $, at the expense of valuable, accurate information. There is a problem there. A big one.

      1. I agree. I think the distinction gets lost in the context of comments. To be fair even if the distinction were made, people love to dump on meteorologists; so the distinction might well be missed. It’s why I think it needs to stop. Nothing positive is accomplished. Nothing at all is accomplished until the individuals at the root of the problem are addressed.

        1. Indeed!

          Even I, who am pretty heat tolerant, took my Saturday morning walk a couple hours early yesterday. And today’s was early anyway (normal Sunday time). 😉

  23. Cape is actually quite hot as of 1pm with the west wind which is their best wind direction to get hot with.

    CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
    FALMOUTH FAIR 91 73 55 W15 29.72F HX 100
    HYANNIS FAIR 94 71 47 W10 29.70F HX 101
    CHATHAM FAIR 95 72 47 W10G22 29.72F HX 103
    PROVINCETOWN FAIR 89 74 60 W17G23 29.69F HX 98
    NANTUCKET FAIR 82 74 76 SW12 29.74F
    MARTHAS VNYRD FAIR 91 74 57 W10 29.73F HX 100
    $$

  24. Today is a good example of what Cape Cod needs to get hot. Hyannis & Chatham sitting in the 90-95 range with a straight west wind gusting around 20 MPH. The downsloping occurs to the west and that wind direction is minimally over or near water so the heat has a straight path out there.

    Boston should recover to 97 or 98 in the next few hours. My forecast high for today there was 98 (Logan’s thermometer error not corrected for).

    1. Logan sitting at 97 now with dp 72 = Heat index 106

      I was just out down the center and it is nasty, BUT NOT as nasty as yesterday. 🙂

      1. I can tell my dp is down here, and my breeze is up, compared to yesterday at this time.

  25. Captain F, I can’t wait until we can discuss that dew point climatology! I can’t say anything until the quiz is revealed. 😉

  26. My house is hotter and muggier this time today than this time yesterday. I was hoping lack of sun earlier might make a difference. I did notice my accurite temp was accurate with the direct sun hidden.

    1. Intensity-wise, the sun was probably weaker yesterday. We had a shorter-lived thicker cloud interruption today but before and after the sun has been much brighter.

      Here it’s much more comfortable (compared to yesterday). My dew point is at least 7 degrees lower and the wind is double what it was. I have a wind gusting 15-20 MPH out of the west blowing right through the open windows, and while very warm, it’s not stifling in here like it was yesterday.

  27. I do wonder though that if it wasn’t for the brief early debris cloudiness that my prediction of 101 would have been more realistic. The tv mets were always advertising today as the hotter of the two. Since I don’t have ac I certainly won’t complain.

    1. No, it would never have made it. Boston was never going to get to 100 this weekend. I’d have bet the farm on it.

  29. Well, Bradley Airport did it!

    100F as of 1:50PM with a dewpoint of 67 and heat index of 105F. West wind gusting to 23mph. It’s all about those downslope winds.

    Still some potential to go a bit higher?

  31. I do agree that the news reporters don’t help the Mets with their message.

    I wish the Mets could do the reporting on the weather stories. I think that would eliminate some of the confusing messaging of the weather.

    I apologize by the tone of my post above, I feel a bit defensive of the TV Mets, who it sometimes TK me feels like they can’t win.

      1. HAHAHA!! That’s good. 🙂

        I can’t count the times the anchor says something stupid right in front of the met that puts them in a difficult spot of saying something completely opposite without making themselves and the anchor look like idiots.

    2. Your tone was not defensive. You were honest and I agree but then that is no surprise.

      My phone switches to to tk all of the time. Friends ask me what a tk is

      1. Just tell them “I’m not sure but it sounds like something you want to avoid!” 😉

  33. I wrote a commentary section for today’s blog that I ended up removing before I posted. It was not nice toward the “TV bosses”. But it just felt good to write it even if nobody saw it. 😉 It was 2:30AM and I had extra energy. At least getting that out helped me sleep better…HAHAHAHA

  34. Today felt better than yesterday. This is probably more perception and body adjustment than reality. I tested my middle aged body by running (fairly slowly) 7 miles in the heat. It’s not recommended. I managed okay, but the body doesn’t like it. I have a blood pressure cuff at home and measured it post run. It was very low with a high pulse rate. My bp is normally high with an average pulse rate.

    1. It felt more comfortable today because, in general, it was. At least for most of the region. And my saying it was “more comfortable” doesn’t mean it was comfortable. It was “less uncomfortable” than yesterday, by standards of the combination of temperature, dewpoint, and wind. Your local and situational conditions may have yielded a different result.

  35. Latest SREF for tomorrow night putting southern CT, RI, South Shore, and Cape in the low tornado risk.

  36. What a miserable season the Red Sox are having, summed up perfectly this weekend by a totally dysfunctional series loss to the lowly Orioles. First, they get pummeled by the O’s. Then, the return the favor by scoring 17 runs. Today, they can’t score a run against a no-name cast-off. Sure, it’s hotter than hell in swampy Baltimore. But, that’s not an excuse. Bogaerts seems to be the only honest player on the Sox (well, other than Sale). He said after Friday night’s loss “it’s unacceptable to lose the way we did to a bad team like the Orioles.” He looked disconsolate. I wish the other players would be as honest about their team’s unacceptable play. Effort. Concentration. Motivation. Coaching. All four are missing on this team, at least on a consistent basis.

    1. Now I can understand why the Patriots get rid of half their players even after SB wins. Brady untouchable of course. Patriot Nation then wonders why and naturally get worried (myself included) about the next season. So what happens, the new players win yet another one, or at least make it to the next AFC Championship Game at worst.

      Red Sox were pretty much done for the postseason during the opening season west coast trip. I do blame MLB scheduling. There should be NO cross country trips in April if I had my way.

    1. I’ll laugh my ass off if that thermometer makes it to 100 (which we know won’t be right) and it goes into the books as a century-mark day incorrectly. Burns me up (pun intended).

  38. Even though todays temperature is higher than yesterday it does not feel it. Humidity is at 40%

        1. Could argue there are multiple fronts. One for humidity and one for cooler air.

          I’d propose the humidity front is south of Boston and the cooler air front is in northern New England.

          1. There are usually multiple boundaries and hardly ever just one front. What went by this morning was a trough line from convective activity yesterday.

  39. https://radar.weather.gov/graphics/centgrtlakesth.gif

    This radar shot is a reason why I don’t think we’re done with mid-upper 70 dewpoints this summer.

    Just can’t get the Ohio valley to dry out at all. Anytime an eastern US ridge sets up, in addition to the Gulf of Mexico, the amount of water to be evaporated from the land is above average.

    And the models signal of the next ridge is beating a little louder in the long range the last few days.

    Don’t know if a piece of southwest heat will join the party, but another oppressive humidity experience seems more likely than not.

    Looking toward to tomorrow thru Thursday, maybe Friday and the more comfortable weather.

  41. Answer to AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the highest DP ever recorded in July for Boston?

    A. 75
    B. 77
    C. 79
    D. 81

    The correct answer is C.

  42. Great job TK !

    You nailed Saturday and Sunday’s high temp to the degree !

    97F and 98F at Logan.

    2. I fear that your analysis of continued high dewpoints this summer is accurate. The high dewpoints are what knocks the stuffing out of me. Temperature not so much.

      1. We haven’t really had dew points that high except a couple strays earlier season, late Friday, yesterday, and part of today (except still high South Coast).

        We’re not going to have a summer like last summer was. Hybrid of 1983 and 1986.

        2. Seems like the front is starting to really slow down. Wind direction along the south coast still from the southwest.

  43. It’s a very warm night here in Hampton & I’m having dinner right on the water

  44. In the will keep an eye on it SREF highlighting most of SNE in that low tornado risk for late tomorrow pm into tomorrow night.

    1. If any part of extreme southern New England ends up to the south and east of this ripple of low pressure, perhaps strong storms are possible.

  45. Certainly not as hot tomorrow and an ocean breeze at the coast, but the 00z NAM has increased its dewpoint projections tomorrow to 70F south of the Mass border with ME/NH/VT and has a contour over 70F closer to the south coast.

    1. Yes, this is why I kept “humid” as a description in tomorrow’s forecast. No big push of dry air until Wednesday.

  47. Sutton at 10:00 ….Outside 75 with 71 DP. Inside 77 with AC running nonstop since some point on Friday. I figure even with high 70s indoor, we have a low humidity and are far luckier than many. Prayers for Mrs OS and everyone whose health is impacted by HHH

  48. So now they are explaining why Boston didn’t hit 100 this weekend. That thing about too much moisture in the air and not enough downsloping.

    I could have sworn I heard that somewhere a few days ago…

  49. TK you’ve been right on the money with the SNE predictions. Boston never had a shot at 100. Even down here, the triple digit readings have been few and far between. I think it was a very well forecast and communicated heat event all across the weather community, but the plastering of unrealistic triple digit numbers onto TV forecasts was unnecessary/gratuitous. It was hot enough as it was.

  50. Most conceptual models of fronts will tell you that cold fronts are the most prolific producers of severe weather. That may be true, but the role of the warm front is so under-appreciated by many. I’m always most wary of any situation where you are close to both the warm front and a surface low itself (i.e., near the triple point).

    1. I absolutely agree. When I was little, my weather books always made cold fronts look mean and warm fronts look gentle… I could tell personal stories, but the one I will bring up (which I have before) is the warm front which sent a thunderstorm across my area on a Tuesday morning in late June of 1982. I’ll never forget the 5 bolts of lightning that struck my neighborhood from that storm, the final 3 making a triangular shape around my house, including hitting the utility pole in front of it and shorting out my mom’s kitchen light (which stayed ON despite being switched OFF), and hitting the tree in my back yard, sending pieces of bark to the neighbors yard 2 houses away!

      Oh gentle warm frontal passage… 😉

  51. We have a New Hampshire, a New York, even a New Mexico, and we live in New England, but here on WHW, you have a NEW POST to check out!

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