Saturday Forecast

61 Comments

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)
A trough of low pressure will move across southeastern New England slowly today through Sunday. It will have cleared most of the region by Sunday morning hanging up around the South Coast for a while during Sunday. This trough may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms favoring areas from the Boston-Providence corridor northwestward today and this evening, and to the southeast of the B-P line on Sunday. It’ll be a warm weekend, but not too hot. Humidity starts out a bit higher today then drops off during Sunday as drier air arrives from Canada. This sets up a splendid Monday as high pressure builds in, then we get more unsettled in the Tuesday-Wednesday period as first a warm front crosses the region with cloudiness and a shower threat, then a cold front brings showers and thunderstorms during Wednesday. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the Wednesday activity, while it’s at day 5 and uncertain, we may have to deal with some strong storms. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers north and west of Boston this morning. Isolated showers/thunderstorms, favoring southern NH, northern and central MA, eastern CT, and northwestern RI this afternoon. Moderately humid. Highs 78-83 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind SW up to 10 MPH except coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible very early. Moderately humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light SW to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy southern RI and southeastern MA with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Mostly sunny elsewhere. Less humid. Highs 79-86. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind light variable with light coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of showers late-day. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)
August 8-9 may see a few additional showers and thunderstorms as a broad low pressure trough moves through the region. The August 10-11 weekend looks dry overall but some cool air aloft may trigger a few instability showers, and it may end up a little cooler than average. Possible quick warm-up to end the period as high pressure builds offshore, pushes the trough out, and a southerly air flow develops.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)
With high pressure ridging strongest over the US Plains and Midwest, this allows more troughing to drop through the Great Lakes and Northeast and another one will likely do that the first half of this period with a few shower/thunderstorm episodes and no major heat. Drier/warmer weather later in the period as the trough lifts out and high pressure builds in.

61 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Repost from this morning on yesterday’s blog

    We have a couple of birthdays……happy birthday to both Old Salty and Rainshine. Also to my youngest grand, Rilyn Mac. And Brady. Wow. August 3 is a popular day.

  5. Cooler than average August 10-11? Wow! That hasn’t occurred probably since early May. I thought I heard from Barry this morning that this summer has already surpassed 1983. Am I correct?

    1. They may have said that, but it’s 100% inaccurate. This summer is NOT hotter than 1983. But it is when 1) you have incorrect information and 2) the media goes with it because it sounds interesting.

    2. It’s also incorrect about not having any below normal temperatures since May. We have.

      Guess how many record high temps Boston has broken this summer? 🙂

        2. And these low temperatures? Compare them to meso-net stations all around the airport, JP included because it’s close enough. If anything, their lows should be WARMER, and they are averaging a few degrees LOWER than Boston’s airport readings. They are clearly wrong. SAK’s compiling information. So far the powers that be don’t seem too interested.

          1. But temps in Sutton differ by degrees from area to area…..close areas.

            We did have the hottest July on record. Just not the most humid…from what I can tell. And remember, We dong know if Barry even made that comment. That makes this whole conversation moot.

            I’d be interested in who SAK is appealing to.

            1. He said it this morning.

              SAK’s been in touch with a couple folks from NWS. Nothing’s going to get done anytime soon.

              How far back to Sutton’s records go?

            2. The vast majority of other stations in the SNE area (meso net and official) were not even close to #1. Something is not right. I stand by that having worked side-by-side with the state climatologist for years. When something is off, it’s off. And something is definitely off.

              I need to pull up my own data. It’s archived going back to 1978, albeit rather hard to grab easily. A project I never quite finished when other things in life got in the way. One of these days…

              I can tell you and I’d bet $ on this that SNE as a whole did not just have their hottest July on record.

              1. I am not going by Sutton’s records. What I was meaning is that comparing areas close to me does not give honest information. In order to prove something is off, a must is that the tests be done at the spot with multiple instruments calibrated perfectly. I do understand there is more to it, but to me and for it to be valid, the equipment has to be tested on the exact spot.

  7. Thanks TK
    From NWS Boston
    the greatest chance for strong to severe
    storms is Wednesday afternoon/evening. This is when we see an
    alignment of maximum moisture (PWATs approaching 2″, dewpoints in
    the 70s), instability, and bulk effective shear which could lead to
    some prolonged updrafts/organized storms. Still a good ways out but
    something to keep an eye on as we approach

  10. Here is a photo of my new Davis Instruments Vantage Vue 6250 weather station.
    As you can see, accurate wind information will be hard to come by, but I will
    get accurate temperature, Dew Point and Rain data. And once in a while when the wind is strong enough and from the right direction, I might get some wind action.
    Pretty tough in the city to place instruments to get good wind data. There are trees
    all over the place in my neighborhood. Even the top of the roof or chimney no good for wind.

    https://imgur.com/a/lx00WPp

      1. It is secured with 8 9 inch landscape stakes.
        So, not not really. And if one were to move it, those stakes don’t
        come out easily and then the unit needs to be leveled again
        before he stakes are put back in to secure it.

        1. Thanks JPD. I have some garden beds that might work for a tripod also. Do you find it is better in direct sun than the accu

          1. So far yes. It was not so much the sun as they are designed to be in the sun. It was where my
            accurite was located on a porch deck post and the
            deck was laid over asphalt roof. I really think that
            was the problem.

            1. Interesting. I can’t think of a mounting problem that would have mine running so far above other nearby stations and more important my car. I need to get an accurate good old thermometer….do you have suggestions as to the make?

  12. A friend from Fitchburg challenged Eric F.’s claim that SNE was blistering hot in July, and Eric responded “put your money where your mouth is and show me data”, so he did. His temps averaged right around normal, not even near his hottest July. He runs a well-calibrated station. Granted his period of record is far shorter than Boston’s, since he wasn’t around in the late 1800s, but you can only work with what you have. That’s why it’s important to have a lot of data points. When ONE station stands out that much above all the others in the area, there is something off. Trust me.

    Just because someone on the news claims something is true, using #’s that are obviously ERRONEOUS, doesn’t make it true.

      1. I don’t even want to single out one person but it’s hard not to when they are so vocal about it without even considering the good counter information being presented to them.

        I still like him a lot, but we need to get real on this stuff. It’s climate data, not fodder for news drama.

        1. Not sure which post that was meant to be under, but
          I was talking about the person in Fitchburg. Initials
          G.F. I do believe. 🙂

          1. Oh my reply was about a Boston met who I admire much, but just highly disagree with. And you are correct, btw. He keeps a very good record.

    2. I’m a bit confused. The person in Fitchburg had data from Fitchburg only? Or he had absolute data from many places around SNE?

    3. I’m not finding where Eric said that. I’d love to see the conversation but if it is buried no worries. I did find where he said Boston was hottest in record along with a couple of others but most of SNE would come in the 3-5 range.

  14. Another thing I do know is that Lowell (with a fairly long record) did not have a July in their top 10 hottest either. Again I’ll gather more details on this later. I’m going to stand up for what I know is the case here.

  15. Just a short list of July averages thru July 30 (have to add July 31 later but it won’t change much). These stations are all Charles River Basin and have never been this much different than Boston prior to August 2018 (when the problem became very noticeable with low temps especially) if you go back and compare past records…

    Logan 78.3
    OWD 76.9
    JP 76.5
    Walpole 75.3
    Hingham 75.1
    Reading 74.9
    BHO 74.8
    BVY 74.1
    Foxboro 73.8
    Middleton 73.3
    Marblehead 72.0

  16. Go Get em TK. Regarding the above, I can tell you with all honesty that our low temperatures in JP ALWAYS have been considerably lower than Logan.
    When Logan bottomed out at 80-82, it was 76-78 here. Not sure what that means
    in the grand scheme of things.

    1. It makes more sense with lows, but not highs, and therefore the averages should be somewhat closer together. Past data shows that, until about a year or so ago. That’s when something went bad at Boston.

      It’s not concrete evidence, but Boston setting record high mins but NO record high max temps is a clue that something is not right as well. I remember state climatologist D. Taylor telling me something very similar to that when disputing ASOS temp accuracy. The problem is not new to automated stations. Before there were staffing and budget issues they were just kept up better. We’ve also had some bad location issues which sometimes cause more problems than just a minor calibration error.

      As this summer goes on, I think yes there is a calibration issue with the thermometer, but the larger issue may be sensor placement and/or performance of the shelter in keeping heat out. I wonder if we are not getting heated asphalt keeping those nighttime temp readings well above what they actually are.

      1. That makes perfect sense to me.

        My accurite was mounted on a porch post, but the deck on the
        porch was laid on top of Asphalt roofing material, thus my
        readings were always high. Eventually, the sensors got totally
        wacked out, thus my new weather station which is now tripod
        mounted on GRASS. 🙂 🙂

      2. That also makes sense to me. That’s why i think you need to perform any tests on the spot.

        My point above is that my corner of Sutton is always warmer In winter than just under four miles away. It reverses in summer. I don’t know if it is the same night and day but suspect because of driving conditions it is.

        One of the differences is the wind which is quite a bit stronger. Conditions have to come into play

      3. Just want to add that I’m not trying to be a pain although I can do that well. I’m trying to understand. Some of this makes sense to me but some does not. And that could be my lack of understanding or perhaps not.

        My sense is the placement at the airport plays into this just as it did in Washington state. Your comment re asphalt and night makes excellent sense. JPDs re frying the unit does also. I know this from placement of my own station.

        I know it is easy with the written word and not a face to face conversation to naturally mistake my curiosity for being a contrarian. I happy admit when I am the latter. Just not this time

  17. A lot of people would place this past Friday’s weather in the category of “top 10”. I think Monday may qualify for those same people.

      1. Dew points in the 60s. Definitely not awful. More like typical August.

        Get those dewpoints over 70 and then we’re talking.

          1. Word. Different people have different levels of tolerance of course. Well, we may drop the dp’s all the way to the upper 40s Monday! There is a chunk of very dry air coming out of Canada. Canada’s having a dry and warm summer, especially north, because of a previously prolonged -NAO. That’s why the fires have been above average, and the entire pattern has fed itself. Eventually it’ll all be erased as we get into late summer / early autumn. I think the snows are going to visit them early this season.

  18. T-storms are weakening a bit as they traverse the state. Now there’s a first. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    We have dinner reservations at 7 and have to leave the house at 6:30, so please
    NO RAIN during that 1/2 hour.

  20. Current radar trends and the 18z HRRR support my ideas. No changes to the forecast at this time.

    I will be heading to Newburyport shortly to visit the Yankee Homecoming celebration.

    Big fireworks display along the riverside at Cashman Park this evening.

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