Wednesday Forecast

144 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)
Humidity spikes today and Thursday, but without high heat, however it will feel hot today as sunshine will work on the humidity for a while before we pop isolated thunderstorms the first half of the afternoon, then more clustered storm activity favoring areas west of Boston the second half of the afternoon which will progress eastward tonight. The focus for severe storms starts out to the west and eventually ends up in southeastern MA during tonight. Severe storms would be most likely to produce damaging wind gusts, which includes brief tornadoes. The main activity should be pretty much done by early Thursday but with the cold front still to the west we can still see additional storms pop up on Thursday, although the support will be a little less and the storm numbers should be down. The cold front gets through the region Thursday night at which time the humidity level takes a dive, and we stay rather warm but much drier Friday, when the combination of ground heating and cooler air coming in aloft may allow an isolated shower or thunderstorm to pop up on what otherwise will be a dry day for most. Weekend? Excellent! Dry weather, low humidity, warm days, cool nights.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog early. Isolated showers/thunderstorms early to mid afternoon anywhere. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms favoring central and northeastern MA and southern NH with isolated showers/storms possible elsewhere mid afternoon on. Any storms may be strong to locally severe. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely, with isolated severe storms possible. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but strong gusts possible near any storms.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms until about mid afternoon. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest interior hills. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)
High pressure settles to the south with increasing warmth and humidity August 12-13, dry August 12, risk of showers/storms later August 13. Trough moves through with showers/storms August 14, high humidity but cooler air. Drier, more seasonable weather for the end of the period as high pressure builds in behind the departing trough.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)
Dry pattern expected as the jet stream lifts to the north and high pressure builds into the eastern US, but look for increasing heat and humidity with time.

144 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Great writeup. Question. Are we supposed to have sun or is this overcast expected, and the sun will burn it off?

  3. Thanks, TK. Severe thunderstorms now have my respect, after the widespread damage caused by last week’s storms. We’re still dealing with tree cleanup on neighborhood streets and sidewalks.

    But Saturday looks great!

    1. You sure were walloped. Do you know if the NWS ever checked your area or York, ME, to confirm either a downburst or small tornado? 50 or 60 trees cut off 6-8 feet from the ground on a golf course in York seems as if it would warrant a look. But then I may be 110% incorrect.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    You had stated:
    Severe storms would be most likely to produce damaging wind gusts, which includes brief tornadoes.

    Did you mean that for all areas? or just to the west.
    I guess what I am really asking is does that apply to Eastern MA tonight, including
    the Boston area?

    Do I need to stay up tonight to monitor?

    1. I was wondering the same thing, JPD. I sort of had the impression anything central to eastern MA would be overnight. Not a favorite time.

    2. TK, I am not sure if I remember you actually mentioning tornadoes in your
      discussion? I suppose for other areas, but locally? Could just be my memory.

      In any case, when you mention Tornadoes in your discussion I TAKE NOTICE!

      1. Again, JPD, you and I are of the same mind today. I actually reread that part of TK’s comments for the reason you mentioned.

          1. I’m forever lurking and smiling as I see your posts! Life has gotten a little hectic as I went back to working full time in Boston but I always check the blog daily 🙂

  5. Thanks TK. I’m in agreement with your thoughts and also the latest SPC outlook for today and tonight. Widespread showers/storms, some (not all) becoming strong to severe with a primary threat of strong to damaging winds. Greatest threat to the west but some risk all the way into eastern areas including through the overnight.

    Today’s synoptic pattern does bear resemblance to past Northeast tornado events, but it’s certainly not a setup for an outbreak. If you want to see a prototypical environment/sounding for a “spin-up” SNE tornado, it would be on the 6z NAM from ~3z-9z over eastern MA. I put a sample sounding below. Not that this environment will necessarily be what we get, but its the classic case of enhanced low level SRH, high PWATs, low LCLs, and low but nonzero CAPE. If you get an overlap of PWATs near or above 2″, 0-1km SRH above 150 m2/s2, low LCLs, and CAPE ~1000J/kg, that’s an environment you have to watch for a tornado. Those are thresholds I helped identify in the local study NWS Boston often references. They are all present in this sounding.

    https://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=2019080706|NAM|MA|con|cape180|21|41.92,-71.31|ml|severe

    1. I am wondering the same. The overcast is quite thick here.

      As usual, the cutoff on that map seems to be right on the Sutton line or a tad west. I’m fine with it remaining right there as far as tornadoes are concerned. Or going away.

  8. From Eric Fisher
    Highest overall risk for damaging storms is across Hudson Valley and western New England today. Locally, more isolated around Boston with feistier storms in central MA/NH

  11. I think the path of a meso low this afternoon may be in the vicinity of the Hudson River valley into extreme western Mass and eventually into southwestern VT.

    On the east and southeast side of that circulation can be a severe weather zone and maybe if there are a few separated cells, fairly isolated just to the east of the meso low circulation, those would have to be watched.

    1. Yes.

      I know this is not very meteorologically sound, but in hindsight, the NAM simulated radar a couple weeks ago did a good job painting that cape cod meso low with the tornados.

      And so, today, looking at the simulated radar on the 12z nam, the radar simulation sure looks like a meso low signature in the area I described.

  13. Sun starting to come out where I am so let the destabilization begin and then wait and see what develops.

  14. 12z NAM has the southern parts of CT RI and southern eastern MA in the bullseye when it comes to the tornado parameters. I wonder if it picking up on a meslow in those areas. I should mention this threat for those areas 8pm to 2am tomorrow. Ryan Hanrahan a couple days was mentioning the possibility of a meslow near the CT coast.

  15. The SREF to does a good job at sniffing out areas of potential tornado development. This model has been very consistent in not highlighting any area of SNE in a potential tornado risk.

    1. True, however, it can miss it.

      Btw, does anyone remember IF the SREF sniffed out the CAPE tornadoes
      recently? Curious.

  18. The reason I used the word tornadoes is because there is a chance. it’s a very low chance for Western areas later today and it’s an extremely low chance for Eastern areas tonight. But it is a chance.

    1. I am not sure it is the reason for your using the word tornado as much as not recalling you using the word tornado in the past. Did I just miss it?

  19. Sun is still struggling out this way. Overcast has changed to significant clouds. The wind sure seems to have picked up.

  20. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Scattered storms through this afternoon with a low grade severe threat. There’s a window for more powerful (and rotating) storms after 8 or 9 p.m. as wind fields and shear strengthens across the region. We’ll be watching.

  23. Special Weather Statement out for a thunderstorm southwest of Boston right now with pea size hail and 40 mph wind gusts. This storm moving northeast.

  25. I always like when there is conformation like you just gave Vicki when these severe warnings or special weather statements are issued. Looking at the radar things are starting to pop up across SNE.

    1. Thanks JJ. It was quick but potent. The highest gust was 24 mph that I recorded but it may have been more prolonged than a gust. It was also from an odd direction for here …due south.

      There is still lingering thunder but sun is trying to break through the clouds. I had a conf call at 1:00. But shut computer etc down

      1. What I am wondering going back to the tweet I posted from Ryan Hanrahan a little earlier is this the appetizer with these storms and later on the main course might be here.

        1. I do recall that during the last severe threat period, we had some storms as an appetizer (I like your choice of words), and I asked if they would rob the atmosphere of energy. I think it was JPD who said not in that particular setup. I’m thinking this may be the case today also????

          1. From Ryan’s tweet it sounds like these storms won’t rob the atmosphere. As he said this afternoon is a low grade severe threat with a window of more powerful (rotating) storms after 8pm 9pm.

  30. From Eric Fisher
    I’d say locally, even though we have storms/downpours around, severe threat is relatively low until after 6pm. Current action will lift north. Then storms from the west will head east into the night, and should maintain potency as they do.

    Will have to watch the LLJ this evening/overnight as it heads up. Can’t rule out a quick spin-up tornado in such an environment so will have to keep close tabs on the radar.

  31. Terry Eliasen just tweeted this out about the storm near Easthampton:

    Some decent rotation showing up near Easthampton

  32. This looks to be the first wind damage report from SNE today.
    Tweet NWS Boston/Norton Skywarn
    Reports of a couple trees down in Holyoke, Mass and a few trees/wires down in Easthampton, Mass. Monitoring for further reports including the westfield/southampton area from earlier.

  35. Eric Fisher tweet : WRF shows overnight meso-low.

    By my eye, it’s projected track is northeast CT, then then Worcester and Boston and then, overhead the NH seacoast.

      1. Well now that isn’t what I wanted to hear. I like the traveling SW to NE west of Worcester scenario.

        1. If true, Tom, would the most intense weather be along that line, south of the line, north of the line? I get the feeling that there maybe be many bumps in the night!

  41. What are good tornado warning apps for iPhones? I’m a little concerned as this event will be overnight. And I sleep like the dead…

  44. Seriously if folks want to complain to nws about not warning …..shut up. This storm probably ranks up there with as bad as I’ve seen

    1. Based on what you are describing I am surprised it isn’t. It was looking very threatening in Sterling when there was still some light.

      1. The thunder and lightning are on top of each other. And a few hit VERY close. We had 1.27 rain in 30 minutes. I can say it has been years since I’ve experienced one this intense. I’m glued to the storm door. It’s amazinc

  46. My rain gauge was christened this afternoon with 0.11 inch in a quick down pour.
    Awaiting the real rain. We’ll see what happens.

  47. I see signs of weak rotation in at least 2 cells. Hope it is NOT a harbinger of things
    to come.

    Action for now, appears to want to move NE WEST of the Boston Area. We’ll see what
    shakes out later on.

    Keeping windows open till the last possible moment.

  48. There is a WALL of WATER down around NYC.

    IF nothing else, there is clearly FLOOD potential for later on.

  49. Speaking of flooding parts of Hartford County under a flash flooding warning and severe thunderstorm warning. Radar estimates in some towns in Hartford County at 3 inches.

    1. They warned it after it was here. They must have been out to dinner before. I am not one to criticize but damn it was intense here

  54. I am watching the live coverage online of Ryan Hanrahan and Josh Cingranelli and they mentioned that cell you were talking about JpDave and how that rotation briefly tightened.

  55. Oceanair. Just saw your comment re Marblehead. Thank you

    Mama..hope you found an app and just saw your earlier post. Very special. Enjoy your new job.

      1. It is wild again here

        Be safe and under the bed may be the only way we all get sleep.

        Lightning here is nonstop

  56. The rain along the mass pike, towards Worcester looks torrential with more thunderstorms headed that way from northeast CT. A bit concerned about flooding in that area.

    1. We are up to 1.77 but all within about 45 minutes. There was a first major burst and then short heavy bursts

  58. Of course, monitoring for severe weather is important.

    The rainfall total, I think, is overachieving.

    I see by the obs at the Boston Harbor buoy, that the wind is SE, so we’re getting moisture inflow from Massachusetts Bay and of course, the Atlantic on the south coast, where water temps are running 74F to 78F, so there is a ton of moisture available for this system.

  59. Im sadly not having a lot of faith in NWS right now. I’m hoping complaints about warning too soon have not influenced them.

      2. Hard to tell in dark. Some strong gusts but not consistent. But I’ve been watching in hopkinton also where the warned area just expired and see no difference.

        What we have now is not warning material. What we had before surely was if it was warned literally just past here

  60. 1.73” of rain here in Coventry CT, all since 6pm, and still more to come although it is finally lightening up a bit.

    Similar to Vicki, I’ve had lots of heavy rain, thunder and lightning here along with occasional gusty winds. There was definitely nothing severe though as the winds didn’t even come close to severe criteria, and there was no hail. The rain and urban/street flooding have been the main issues here.

    1. I should add that we were under a severe thunderstorm warning in Tolland County for a time for that cell that went thru Hartford and then northeast. It weakened though and passed north of me.

  67. I know Boston is getting hit now.

    Looking at the radar, to the southwest, where I95 dumps onto Rte 128, there’s another cell there, intensifying and I think it’s going to train right into the Boston area.

    1. The area south of here looks to slide just east of us

      My plan is to go to sleep when we hit 3 inches.

      Please make it soon. My eyes don’t seem to want to be open

  69. 1.26 inch on the day. Boston storm was just rain for the most part. Some lightning, but
    not all that much and NO WIND, at least not at my house.

    Not sure IF I should go to bed????

    Going to take one last look. 🙂

    1. Radar showing a long line of storminess. Still getting lightning thunder and heavy downpours.

  71. 1.76 inch for yesterday and overnight. Lawn and bushes got a nice deserved drink
    of water.

    Have to see what Logan got to check on my new rain gauge.

    1. Anyone have a decent link to the hourly precip totals? I used to have one
      but cannot find it now.

      Logan does not have precip on the meso site.

      Norwood had 1.55 inch
      Worcester 1,31 inch
      Lawrence 1.84 inch

  72. We lucked out with no rotating storms, we also lucked out with no severe thunderstorms (per zero reports of hail or wind) from the nocturnal event. In fact my fellow forecaster and long time chase partner and I are not even sure why they issued any warnings for the nighttime stuff, which was just ordinary storms with lots of rain and lightning. That said, they were very impressive if you were near or in them! But the warnings were probably not necessary. His term for it is a “CYA warning”. You can figure out what that means. 😉

    Keep in mind what the definition of a severe thunderstorm is. Amount of wind damage reports from the nocturnal event: zero. Amount of hail reports: zero. Analysis of data shows there was probably no need for anything except flash flood warnings due to heavy rain over the same areas for a longer period of time due to the slow eastward translation of the line. Lightning is NOT a factor in determining whether or not a storm is “severe” by definition.

    HRRR did a horrendously bad job forecasting last night’s activity. NAM was even worse. Two big strikes for those models yesterday.

    1. I am so happy you said that! Thank you as I agree 100%.
      Lots of rain and lightning, but that was it.

      Yup, CYA. This gets to another issue…. Why oh why send out a severe warning
      when the storm does NOT qualify as severe??? They have been doing this
      time and time again. Do they do it because it potentially could go severe?, so
      better off with an early warning than one after the damage is done.

      I dunno. Tough business that is for sure. Can’t they see a hail signature
      on the radar echoes? And can’t they compute wind based on the returns???

      I just don’t get it.

      1. They can get a really good idea of current and potential conditions within a storm that can translate to hail and/or wind enough to qualify. I highly doubt they saw either last night. Definitely not hail. Freezing level was WAY too high. Wind? Maybe marginal in a couple of the storms, but in my experience (and the experience of a long-time Plains chaser I was with) not enough to issue warnings. And the ground truth obs confirmed this very solidly. There were a few wind gusts in the 20-30 MPH range. Not even half to barely half of what we need to qualify as severe. So I’m guessing some type of politics plays into this, just like the NHC over-doing things with “Andrea” (not a storm at all), “Barry” (not a hurricane), and the recent TD off Florida, which was NOT a TD. 😉

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