Thursday Forecast

79 Comments

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)
Humidity comes down a peg today, but doesn’t really crash until a cold front crosses the region in the early hours of Friday. An initial trough responsible for lots of rain (for many areas) and lots of lightning (for some areas) during last night is offshore but with humidity in place and still one more front to approach and pass through, we can’t rule out a few more showers/storms today, although they will be much more isolated. By Friday, we start a 3 day stretch of comfortable weather, with the only rain threat being the possibility of an isolated pop up shower or thunderstorm on Friday as we combine still warm surface air with colder air aloft and pop instability clouds. Weekend weather? About as nice as you can get in August, although the nights will be on the cool side and may cause you to think of autumn. Monday’s weather also looks nice but we should see a quick warm-up and a bit of a humidity increase as well as high pressure sinks south.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84, coolest interior hills. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)
A broad trough of low pressure helps the jet stream sink south and brings higher humidity and showery weather August 13-14, before high pressure builds back in with drier and pleasant weather August 15-17, starting a little cooler then turning somewhat warmer.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)
Drier pattern expected as the jet stream lifts to the north and high pressure builds into the eastern US, but look for increasing heat and humidity during this period. Shower/thunderstorm risk should be minimal for much of this period.

79 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Morning….

    Let’s work on lowing that dew point a tad….

    Anyone have a link to regional precipitation data for yesterday and overnight?
    I can’t seem to find the link I used to have. Thanks

  4. Thank you, TK. I am thinking the comments re warning are for my benefit since I was the one wondering why. Thank you. I can say with complete accuracy that I have not had the pleasure to experience a storm as severe as last night’s in more years than I can count. It was impressive. It was long – starting at 8:00 and still going when I dozed off just after midnight.

    What has me curious is that there was rotation seen in the cell that went over here once it was just past us. Several mets commented on it and at least one person on here. Doesn’t that mean that the cell had the ability to produce a tornado? I looked and do not see the ability to produce a tornado in the tstorm warning parameters.

    All said and done, we had 3.62 inches of rain but in brief deluges and not over the entire four plus hours.

  5. Sorry – I neglected to thank you. I especially appreciate your comment to me around midnight that you felt we had gone through without a tornado. I might not have slept otherwise.

  7. Ryan Hanrahan yesterday was tweeting about rotation tightening in that area of NJ and the video proved it.

    1. Thank you, Captain. Sutton looks correct as it is close to mine. I wish they gave locations on these but then that would get quite involved.

      1. Another wild night, Vicki! Working overtime again! Do you know if TK pays time and a half???? 🙂

    2. Thank you Captain!!

      Here was Logan’s total:

      …SUFFOLK COUNTY…
      BOSTON 2.78 948 AM 8/08 HAM RADIO

      I got 2.76 in JP. Not too shabby. I think I am pretty well satisfied that
      my new rain gauge is calibrated properly.

      Thank you for this information.
      Btw, it is not actually the site I wanted.
      The site I wanted has been posted by Tom before and lists
      hourly observations, including precipitations amounts for the NWS observation site.

      What you posted is ALL I need for now and it is very much appreciated.

        1. Nice site. Close but no cigar. It is very similar
          to this,except it has precipitation data on it.
          If I remember correctly, it has it in 6 hour increments?
          Something like that.

          thanks

  10. Thanks, TK…

    0.32″ in Taunton.

    Took a peek out the window at around 12:45 this morning. Low level, salt ‘n pepper clouds were screaming south to north. Fascinating and a little concerning at the same time.

  12. Yikes and I thought 3.6 was a lot

    Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    ·
    1h

    Quote Tweet
    NWS Boston
    @NWSBoston
    · 1h
    Rainfall Update: We received a 24-hour rainfall report of 5.07″ from a @CoCoRaHS observer in Millis, MA which we believe to be accurate.

      1. On Taunton/Norton NWS site, there’s an icon on the left labeled my forecast Boston MA ……. under it is the temp in F and Celtics.

        To the right of the Celcius temp, it says …. get detailed info …. click that, when the new link comes up, click 3 day history. It will be just below and to the right of the current temperature.

    2. HOWEVER, you will note that for yesterday there is
      ZERO precipitation information included?
      Did a Sea Gull sit on top of the rain gauge?
      Technical difficulties???

      The whole damn set up at Logan needs to be revamped!!!!1

  14. Dave:

    If you click on this link, it will bring you to the NWS forecast page.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=187&y=169&site=box&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=187&map_y=169#.XUxDV-hKiUm

    Look on the right on the same line as the hourly obs for that site.
    There are five links under “More information.”
    The third one down is “3 day history.”

    I think this is the information you want.

    The second one down is “More Local Wx.”
    That will give you obs from area sites.

    1. Thanks Capt. I See the amounts for Taunton.
      When I do it for Boston, it shows exactly what Tom provided without
      any precip data.(yes I know it usually does).

      Maybe a harbor seal was nesting atop the rain gauge?????

      I am FED UP with LOGAN as an observation site!@*(&#!*(@&#!@*(#&!*(

  15. Vicki to address the earlier comment…

    that storm with minor rotation was definitely not nearly strong enough to produce a tornado. and while I have no doubt the storm you experienced was pretty intense it still was lacking the correct criteria to be classified as severe.

    But this is a good example of what I mean when I mention disappointment in the criteria they use.

    While I understand why they can’t consider lightning in severity I think that including rainfall rate should be considered for flash flood potential. As long as people realize that any thunderstorm can contain deadly lightning that is sufficient enough to not have to consider it any severe criteria.

    I have experienced two thunderstorms in my life in which the lightning was particularly intense and frequent where I was, yet neither storm produced hail or nearly more than a breath of wind.

    One of the storms, on June 29th 1982, caused 5 lightning strikes in my neighborhood in a 5-minute period.

    1. Thank you, TK. I do know it didn’t meet the criteria. My question is …..is it an absolute that a cell with minor rotation can never develop into a stronger cell with distinct rotation. Emphasis on the word absolute.

      I lost a bit of faith in the NWS’s hesitancy to warn in the storm last year that did produce a tornado that traveled quite a distance.

      I think (not positive) that you and I are saying close to the same thing. I do get the need for criteria as a guiding source. I do not understand it when the criteria is adhered to without question rather than understand there are always going to be exceptions. Common sense should often prevail. But then that is my view and only my view. I will always ere on the side of caution….again, just me and that doesn’t make it right.

  16. It’s interesting maybe early/middle of next week.

    Southern US will be very hot, northern US cool. Temp gradient between with west to east jet stream, containing disturbances.

    Hints of a low Tuesday ish along that boundary. Potential for an excessive rainfall event to the north of the low’s path. Perhaps some convective feedback errors in the models enhancing projected rainfall totals ?

    Let’s see what the 12z euro shows soon in the hr 120 to 168 time frame.

  17. NWS Boston in latest discussion keeping an eye on Monday
    Possible scattered showers and thunderstorms. EC / GFS hinting at a preceding ribbon of continental-tropical moisture in a region of decent instability and uni-directional westerly shear. Suggested storm mode of multi-cellular clusters that could organize into line- segments, possibly bowing as both deep-layer shear and wind vectors are westerly-parallel. Prior to a sweeping, reinforcing cold front with renewed cool, dry air out of Canada, there`s the potential for strong-severe thunderstorm activity late Monday into Monday evening. Low confidence forecast given a day-5 forecast. Keep an eye out for now.

  20. I was not expecting to see that today. SPC has western parts of CT and MA in a slight risk for severe weather.

  22. Looks as if southern part is falling apart. I was thinking a double feature would be nice but can’t complain about just last night

  23. The worst of the line looks to be going into Berkshire County. I don’t see why all of Litchfield County is under the severe thunderstorm warning.

    1. I’m guessing that even though the southern end may be losing a bit of intensity, that where they were once more intense and have traveled in a bow echo signature for a long distance, that perhaps the wind ahead of them may take a little while longer to ease. Momentum of the gust front perhaps offsets decreasing intensity initially.

      1. It’s like when you throw a rock in a lake and form the out-moving wave, the wave retains a while after the rock has hit the water and sunk. Then, eventually …. the wave starts to dampen.

  24. One part of the line just west of the CT boarder has strengthened some. If it continues on direction it will come close to my area. Currently my area is under a severe thunderstorm warning until 645

        1. Tom I have my eye on that one. It is strengthening but it could just as easily weaken entering western CT.

  25. I’m at my daughters softball game in West Hartford. Gorgeous out now but just got a severe thunderstorm warning notification for Hartford and Tolland Counties.

  26. No surprise NWS Albany reissued a severe thunderstorm warning for Litchfield county with part of the southern line strengthening some.

  28. Strongest wind gusts I have seen in a thunderstorm here since the overnight severe outbreak in February 2016. I would say the wind gusted close to 40mph some leaves coming off the trees briefly heavy rain but thankfully no trees down where I am and no loss of power.

  30. Mark it got dark and it was very quick maybe 5 minutes and I would say the winds gusted close to 4omph. Some rumbles of thunder no lightning but the gusty winds were the big thing with this storm.

  31. Be safe JJ. I just checked radar and seems you are in thick of it

    Mark…thanks for the photo. Please stay safe as well.

  32. Vicki I was in the thick of it. Now it is just raining with a couple of rumbles of the thunder. That photo Mark posted was what the sky looked like prior to the storm. Those winds gusted and I have not seen wind gusts here in a thunderstorm since February 2016 when we had that overnight severe weather outbreak.

  33. Very windy now. Field just turned into a dust bowl! Needless to say they called the game. Hasn’t even rained a drop yet

  34. Mark you may get what I had where the wind gusted then you get that rain and gusty winds combo. It was cool thunderstorm.

    1. Yep update! We are now drenched. From nothing to torrential rain in two seconds. Wish we had parked closer!

  35. I didn’t have lightning here. There were rumbles of thunder but the big ticket item with these storms are the gusty winds.

  36. Vicki it looks like a severe thunderstorm warning close to your area.
    Here is some of the text from that warning
    * At 718 PM EDT, a line of thunderstorms is moving east across central Massachusetts at 35 mph. This line of thunderstorms has had a history of producing wind gusts up as high as around 60 mph according to trained spotters along with scattered tree and power line damage.
    This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across western and central Massachusetts. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

  37. Is there something o need to know with the severe warned area on my doorstep and no apparent cell near me

  38. I didn’t think we would be see severe thunderstorm warnings this far east in SNE nor did I expect severe weather today. The line could weaken before it hits your area but if it doesn’t it is going to come in quick and you will know it.

  39. JJ. We were typing at the same time. Thank you VERY MUCH for sending that. I did just send to my daughter in Uxbridge but still am not sure what is down this far south. I see only blue sky and wispy clouds to my west, south, north

    1. There we go. Warning area is north of us now

      Again, JJ thank you so much for sending me the warning. Much appreciated

  40. When I saw it getting closer to your area Vicki I said let me give a heads up especially since these thunderstorms came in fast with the gusty winds and briefly heavy rain.

  42. Thank you Vicki for your kind words.
    Hopefully TK will chime in on why there was severe weather in parts of SNE today since severe weather was not forecasted for today and was this what he was concerned about on Sunday when he thought Thursday was more of a concern. If this all that happened I am wondering if we dodged something potentially bigger.

  43. NWS discussion mentioning possibly strong to severe storms on monday to Monday night? looking at the parameters, it doesn’t look much at all? i wonder what they are looking at

  45. 00z GFS comes back north with surface low for next Tuesday (110 to 120 hrs)

    2 inch swath of rain east central Mass.

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