Sunday Forecast

30 Comments

6:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)
High pressure controls today’s weather which will be pleasant and dry for August. The high sinks to the south and allows the humidity to up-tweak on Monday while fair weather remains in place. Low pressure tracks across the region from the west Tuesday and its exact track determines whether we see general showers or at least southern areas also see the threat of some heavier thunderstorms. Just 10 or 20 miles will make a difference, so this forecast will have to be fine-tuned up to the last moment. Right now, a little cautious optimism for drier and cooler air working in behind this departing system Wednesday before a follow-up low tracks just to the south of the region Thursday, putting another fine-line forecast between sun/clouds/wet weather over the region, greater chance of drier north and wetter south from this vantage point 5 days away.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SW.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Less humid. Highs 73-80. Wind light N to NE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light NE to E.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun north / most clouds south. Chance of showers south. Highs 75-82. Wind light E to SE.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)
High pressure builds into the region with fair weather and a warming trend August 16-17, then a couple minor jet stream disturbances from the west bring a couple opportunities for showers/thunderstorms August 18-20 in a warm and more humid overall pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)
Look for weak west to east flow, jet stream to the north, warm to hot and on the humid side with a couple shower/thunderstorm threats heading into late August.

30 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK. Lovely, lovely August weather. This is the August I always loved. It’s why I enjoyed going go Humarock in August. Always some cool days tossed in and always a few days of new sweatshirt weather.

    1. I always assumed lightning occurred all over the globe anyway, regardless of exact location. We can certainly have occasional lightning around here during winter, why not Siberia.

      1. From a chicago met, Tom Skilling

        This planet’s only thunderstorm-free locations would be areas close to both poles — the interior of the Arctic Ocean and the interior of Antarctica. An essential ingredient for thunderstorm development is a current of rising, moist air condensing into precipitation particles that generate electric charges sufficient to trigger lightning, an ingredient noticeably absent at the poles. Interior Antarctica is bitterly cold (averaging lower than minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit), permanently ice-covered and intensely dry. However, thunderstorms have been reported as far north as Barrow, Alaska, on the shore of the Arctic Ocean, and a tornado was even sighted at Kiana, Alaska, just north of the Arctic Circle in August 1976.

  5. Thanks TK
    I feel this low pressure system on Tuesday is liking tracking a coastal storm in the winter. Slight shifts in track will make a huge difference. In this case slight shift north in the track southern parts of SNE could get strong to possible severe storms and slight shift south means general rainfall for SNE. SPC has SNE in general thunderstorm risk for Tuesday.

  7. At this point down where WXWatcher is Tuesday could be an active day. In the discussion from the NWS office out of Mount Holly, NJ it mentions all modes of severe weather are possible that day.

  10. Quick peak at the 12z American models instability for thunderstorms south of SNE for Tuesday. The areas that have been getting rounds of severe weather this year NJ eastern PA look to be the area for severe weather.

  11. Trivia Quizzes.

    1) The Perseid Meteor Shower is caused by …
    A. Comet Swift Tuttle
    B. Comet Perseus
    C. Asteroid Vesta
    D. Comet Hale-Bopp

    2) This Wednesday night’s full moon is called the …
    A. Sturgeon Moon
    B. Sticky Moon
    C. Blueberry Moon
    D. Ragweed Moon

    Answers later today.

    3. Since these are not directly meteorology, I’ll answer. A & A. 🙂

      Perseid peak night #1 is tonight. These clouds will thin and clear out, but the moon will interfere. Up to 60 meteors per hour possible away from light pollution. I’ll go out for a while. Moon sets after 2AM so the 2AM-first light time frame is best.

      1. I consider Perseids Macs birthday celebration. His birthday is Monday. We’ve always watched but rarely see anything. Even from Humarock. But that’s ok. I know they are there just as I know Mac is there

  12. Answers to Trivia Quizzes.

    1) The Perseid Meteor Shower is caused by …
    A. Comet Swift Tuttle
    B. Comet Perseus
    C. Asteroid Vesta
    D. Comet Hale-Bopp

    The correct answer is A.

    2) This Wednesday night’s full moon is called the …
    A. Sturgeon Moon
    B. Sticky Moon
    C. Blueberry Moon
    D. Ragweed Moon

    The correct answer is A.

  14. 0z NAM does keep severe weather threat south of SNE
    SREF does highlight southeastern CT parts of southern RI in a slight tornado risk early morning hours of Wed.

      1. and the 5-6 inches of rain for Falmouth and New Bedford …. though the precip potential does make me a bit nervous and so thankfully, the trend on the track has been further south.

  15. The midweek system is an unusually dynamic one for August. Very strongly forced with wind fields more reminiscent of autumn. Definitely convective feedback issues on several of the models. Check out the severe parameters in my neck of the woods on Tuesday evening on that NAM run. Oof.

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