Tuesday Forecast

49 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)
A cold front sinks southward across the region today and sets up shop to the south by midweek. Our unsettled day will be today as an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms results. There are likely to be 2 main bands that see them, one with the front itself dropping down from northern New England, with a broken band of activity from southern NH into northern MA this afternoon and/or early evening, and waves of activity closer to the South Coast. The main threat today will be road flooding and poor visibility in downpours, which may occur over the same areas for a while due to the set-up / movement of activity. Primary time for impact will be mid afternoon to early evening. Although severe weather (in terms of fitting severe thunderstorm criteria) is not expected, there is a slight risk of one or two strong storms. Enough southward push of high pressure should occur for mainly dry weather and below average temperatures during Wednesday and Thursday, although we will have to watch another wave of low pressure passing to the south during Thursday. High pressure will be centered north and east of New England late this week and that may set-up a boundary between onshore flow from coastal areas and light southerly air flow further away. This can sometime trigger pop up showers, and this may occur either or both days, but not enough to cancel plans over.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partial sun this morning otherwise mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms, favoring southern NH to northern MA and areas closer to the South Coast. Locally heavy rainfall possible. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers in southern areas. Slightly less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy southern NH and northern MA, partly sunny to mostly cloudy southern MA southward. Highs 73-80. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers, favoring far southern areas. Highs 73-80. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower southeastern areas early. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 75-82. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)
High pressure holds most of the control but a boundary may still trigger a pop up shower southern and western areas afternoon August 18. Gradual build in heat/humidity August 19-22 with occasional risks of pop up shower/thunderstorm activity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
A warm to hot late summer pattern with moderate to high humidity, and a few opportunities for thunderstorms, as high pressure ridging and a northward-displaced jet stream is the pattern for New England late this month.

49 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  7. Why do I get the feeling that boston doesn’t see a drop of rain today??
    Activity from North goes poof before reaching the city and activity to the south
    stays to the south??????????

  9. Thanks TK!
    Atmosphere is definitely loaded you can feel it this morning like Vicki stated. However will we be in the middle of the best dynamics to ring it all out here in central mass northern conn? We’ll see, it will be a radar watching day at this point I think.

  11. The sky first thing this morning looked weird and ominous. Did anyone else here notice or had the same feeling?

    1. Frightening….

      Too bad there are many people in powerful positions in this country
      who either don’t believe this report or chose to ignore the findings.

    2. It is terrifying. I know you read here enough to have heard me say Mac started mentioning upcoming world water shortages about a decade ago. Our pollution plays into part of it, but there is much more. Thank you for sharing this, Mama

      1. I have a client whose husband was a meteorology professor and he came to MIT and studied climate change from 1960’s on – Reginald Newell if anyone hear has heard of him. He passed away in 2003.

          1. Thanks for finding this JpDave! I am happy that it’s still up/available on the internet! My understanding is that he also did a lot of work with radar development. Amazing contributions to this science!

  17. Mama Mia, thank you for sharing the New York Times article on the impact of climate change on food supply. Even without climate change food supply has often been precarious in certain parts of the world, due to droughts, persistent flooding, and mismanagement of agriculture by governments and farmers.

    Effecting policy changes here at home is a difficult proposition. Perhaps for good reason. I’m not going to judge at this point, but just point out the facts. Our Founding Fathers purposely made it hard to veer from one policy regime to another, instituting checks and balances, which often result in gridlock. For all the rhetoric we hear from the campaign trail (on both sides) Presidents ultimately get little done in our version of democracy. Their campaign promises are often scuttled, or simply nipped in the bud as legislators fail to agree on what the executive branch wants to implement. With the exception of executive orders (and these can only be made if no expenses are incurred), Presidents can only propose ideas for legislators to then put forward as bills. The vast majority of such bills never see the light of day. This is so different in a parliamentary democracy where the governing party or coalition can implement major policy changes right away, within days of winning an election. The prime minister not only proposes legislation, he or she is a legislator. This is one of the reasons why shifts in power in European countries have more systematic policy implications than similar shifts here at home. The other reason is the autonomy that states have, which often disrupts attempts at universal policymaking. So, for example, recycling happens piecemeal in the U.S., whereas in other jurisdictions it happens systematically and is countrywide.

    1. This is so interesting and so informative- thank you! That being said we are in a political time when I can’t help but be grateful for the checks on the executive branch – however inadequate they might seem at times …. sorry TK – borderline political – will hop down from my soapbox!

      In other weather related directions – I’m about to head down to FL for a western Caribbean Cruise – is the outlook in the tropics still benign due to dust and high shear? (She asked hopefully…)

  18. That front is dropping Southward. Will there be enough left by the time it reaches
    the Boston Area? Nice convection in South Central VT and upstate NY, just North of Saratoga Springs.

  22. With the front dropping, there was the makings of a decent line, however, as it
    traversed Southward, most of the line has gone POOF as USUAL!

    I am virtually CERTAIN that Boston will see ZERO rain this evening/overnight.

    We had a tiny tiny bit of rain around 12:30 PM. It was NOT enough to trip my
    rain gauge which trips at 0.01 inch.

    1. From NWS…who are they kidding????????

      We are also watching an area of scattered showers/thunderstorms
      that have developed along a cold front in northern New England. This
      activity may impact portions of our region this evening. The
      greatest risk will be near and especially north of the MA Turnpike
      after 6 pm this evening, before instability begins to wane.

  23. I should clarify what I said above regarding the executive branch’s impact on climate change policy and the environment. Internationally, the executive branch has virtually all the cards as it can join agreements on climate change (eg, Paris) or leave. Also, the executive branch sets the tone for environmental policy by way of a: shifts in EPA policies; b: establishing guidelines and regulations for a number of industries.

    So, my post above glossed over presidential powers in this regard. I do think, however, that many presidents are hampered by the system of checks and balances in establishing or completely deconstructing federal policies that impact the environment and our climate.

  25. Boston may get clipped by those storms in SE NH as it seems there’s a slight continuation of back building on the southwest edge of the line.

    1. I was wondering about that, came here to see if anyone had mentioned them and thank you, Tom

      When do you start school. And why does it seems as if it were only a couple of weeks ago that you and Captain started vacation

      1. 3 weeks from tomorrow for students, 3 weeks from today for teacher’s meetings. Most teachers get into their rooms in the next 2 to 3 weeks to get their rooms ready.

        Summer flies by, seemingly faster each year 🙂 🙂

  26. Jpdave, that was an interesting video linked above.

    There’s also the much longer workshop series by Lead Forecaster Rich Thompson from the SPC. But those were a bit over my head…

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