Wednesday Forecast

39 Comments

7:25AM

COMMENTARY
Just a quick comment on forecasting and its media maze. Limited air time, too many platforms to update, and in some cases just plain poor forecasting made many folks believe that a widespread moderate to heavy rain event was expected yesterday. It wasn’t. This blog, and other sources, tried the best they could to highlight that heaviest rainfall would be limited to certain areas, and that many areas would largely miss out. As it turned out, it was even more limited, area-wise, than I indicated in the discussion posted on yesterday’s blog, with Nantucket really being the only place that saw impactful rain over several hours, while other areas near the South Coast were wet for several hours then dried out, and the band from the north had fairly weak legs and its impact was confined mostly to parts of southern NH and far northeastern MA. I really wish that instead of sunny, nearly seasonable days being “top story” worthy for news casts, they could find a way to give more time to weather when it is NEEDED, even if it’s just to explain a situation better. If that happened, the majority of the population would stop walking around misinformed about the weather for the day. Wishful thinking? It seems so in regards to most media platforms at this point.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)
Now if I told you there are shower threats the next 5 days, you’d probably think to yourself “rainy pattern” or “wet pattern”, and that would be a fair conclusion to reach if the information given stopped there, but this is why I write this discussion. We will be, in fact, in a fairly dry pattern during these 5 days. That weak westerly flow that was mentioned for mid August back so many days ago on a previous blog will be taking place, and weak disturbances helping to interact with more local effects (sea breezes mainly) will come along to help produce those shower threats, but they will be minor, rather isolated, temporary, and the result will be that most of our area will be dry during this stretch, with weak high pressure more often in control and producing rain-free conditions than we see disturbances interacting with sea breeze boundaries and helping showers to pop up. Nevertheless, afternoons from Thursday through Sunday will be when we’ll need to watch for such pop up activity. Please do not cancel any outdoor plans if you see rain drops slathered across your app.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A brief very light shower possible north central MA and southwestern NH this morning. Highs 73-80. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts along the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light NE to E.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief pop-up shower possible southwestern NH afternoon. A passing shower possible outer Cape Cod / Islands too.
Highs 73-80. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Passing light showers possible Cape Cod / Islands and a slight risk of an afternoon pop-up shower interior hills.
Highs 75-82. Wind variable, mostly SE, up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)
Jet stream remains weak and lifts to the north with temperatures sliding to the warmer side of normal, a some late summer heat/humidity, and limited shower/thunderstorm threats.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)
A warm to hot late summer pattern with moderate to high humidity, and a few opportunities for thunderstorms, as high pressure ridging and a northward-displaced jet stream is the pattern for New England to start out, and then the jet stream wanders back to the south as a weak trough moves into the Great Lakes / Northeast, increasing the risk for showers/thunderstorms later in the period.

39 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Really agree with your thoughts on how weather should be handled during newscasts. It baffles me how stations will lead the newscast with weather on a clear day with nothing coming over the following days. Yesterday’s system was handled terribly by the models, especially the NAM. Not only did it end up south of SNE (that always seemed probable), it ended up south of my area as well. Lesson learned big time on that one: do not even look at the NAM more than 24 hours out when a convectively enhanced shortwave is involved.

    Going forward, after a rather temperate opening half, I think the biggest weather story for the rest of this month will be the heat. Will likely be among the hottest final two weeks of August that we’ve seen. Humid too. Classic HHH pattern setting up which may bleed over into September.

        1. Indeed . As I always say for me the hotter the better but I absolutely feel for the folks who struggle with it . I hate , hate winter !!!!!!

  3. Thank you, TK. Concur with your assessment. I must admit after all the TV and radio reports of downpours I thought it was going to rain cats and dogs. Boston got a couple of drops.

    Regarding the upcoming heat, which may be record-setting in some areas, there’s certainly consensus that it will likely happen in the final 10 days of August. As WxWatcher says it’s a “classic set-up” in New England for HHH. Nevertheless, I believe it’s too early to be certain. If the set-up holds and endures in the models, say, by Sunday, August 18th, I’ll be a believer.

  4. Sadly, the mediocre Red Sox are going nowhere. And, they’ve wasted two very fine seasons: Devers and Bogaerts. Devers went 6 for 6 (!) with 4 doubles, against a good team’s pitching. The last person I can remember going 6 for 6 was Willie Wilson of the KC Royals, in the 70s. I’m sure someone has done it since then, but I just can’t recall. Bogaerts is also having a stand-out season. He’s the best 2-strike hitter since Wade Boggs.

  5. Thanks TK
    I am hoping that forecast of heat and humidity doesn’t pan out. With that said were on the back nine of summer and to me once we get past September 10th the heat and humidity doesn’t have the staying power it does during June July August first few days of September.
    If the Yankees could play the Orioles they would be 162-0. The Astros worry me with their starting pitching should the Yankees face them.

  7. Thank you TK .

    I echo JPD and JJ that I hope the HHH doesn’t pan out. Kids will be heading back to school and it would be nice if it was at least bearable.

      2. I sure understand also. I agree with others. With school starting, it would be nice. Sadly, we cannot do a darned thing about the weather, but even I was in the “ahhhhhh – this is amazing” camp.

    2. It’s crazy for my son he goes back on 9/ 6 a Friday . Why send kids back on a Friday is beyond me

  8. Last year when school started we had hot and humid weather when school started which led here in CT to a lot of schools districts having multiple early dismissals.

  10. Thanks TK !

    In the last several years, it seems like we have had 1 or 2 mid 90F school days each year, prior to mid September.

    With early and now mid August having had some blocking in northeast Canada, resulting in this non-hot stretch, I figured the blocking would ease allowing the jet stream to move north just in time for school to start.

  11. Tom did your school get early dismissal at the start of last school year with the heat?
    As a student when there were hot days school was never dismissed early. I remember the teachers running a fan and turning the lights off in the classroom.

    1. No, we didn’t.

      The new High School has central A/C.

      Our middle school, over the years, has collected donated window unit A/C’s and all the 2nd floor rooms and most of the first floor rooms have one unit. They hold the fort to a certain extent, though they lose the battle on those 95F days.

      It’s the elementary schools that, for whatever reason, don’t have the A/C. They are all one floor buildings, but they still get hot.

      1. I had forgotten how hot it was at the start of school last year. I asked about AC in Sutton. The entire school complex is new. I seem to recall it being partial. Maybe I can coax a friend who is has been reading here (I believe) but has yet to post to respond 😉 She knows much more about the schools than I.

  12. To me it’s tough for the kids to stay focused in classrooms that are hot and don’t have an A/C.

  15. Minor rant. So, today turned out sunnier and warmer than expected, at least according to several forecasts I saw last night on television. That’s perfectly fine. It’s hard to predict the power of the sun to break through a relatively thin cloud layer. But, what got me about one of the TV forecasts was the met saying today would feel “raw” with clouds and temps in the low to mid 70s (!). He also said the ocean water was “cool.” I had not seen this met before. Perhaps he is new to the area. But, “raw” is not an adjective to describe weather in August in New England. And the ocean water at this time of year is definitely not cool. It is at its warmest (in the 70s in many locations) pretty much everywhere in coastal Southern New England. Also, I have never felt a raw day in August. Seabreeze, yes. But at this time of year that doesn’t make it raw. Raw is reserved for 40s and 50s perhaps. Maybe you feel differently, so please let me know if you do.

    March through June, different story in terms of a raw feeling with wind coming off the ocean. And one could perhaps even throw in early July, for occasionally (2 days in July 2017 come to mind when it barely got to 60 in Boston) the air feels a bit “raw.”

    1. Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA

      5-day plot – Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 66.4 °F

      That is not exactly cool, but it is not the 70s either.

      But, I agree with you 100%!!!!

      That met whoever it might be (can’t you just tell us?), needs a thorough
      indoctrination to New England weather(!@&#()!@)(#&(!)@&#)(&!@(#

      1. For the record, I was just out running errand and was outside.
        Sorry, but it feels HOT out there to me. 🙂 🙂
        funny about that, isn’t it.

      2. My error, JPDave, on the ocean temperature. For some reason I thought it was in the low 70s in SNE. I just checked 10 stations in SNE, and they all reported between 66F and 69F. So, that’s my mistake.

        1. But for almost the entire month of July, the temps were in the 70s. I am sure that is what you were thinking.

  16. 71 degrees at Block Island 76 at buoy 44008 southeast of Nantucket. Water temps have cooled with all the up welling this past weekend. With the upcoming pattern water temps will probably rise to previous temps mid seventies, the sun still has some power for the next few weeks.

  18. New post!

    NWS is more doom&gloom in their wording today for the coming days. Eh… I kind of left everything the same.

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