Saturday Forecast

93 Comments

9:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)
The transition from a relatively cool marine layer of air to a mid summer feeling hot humid air mass will take place this weekend, with the result being more cloudiness than we’ve seen in the last couple days but still very limited rainfall, non-existent in most locations. Heat peaks on Monday, a day with no shower or storm threat as the upper atmosphere warms too much, then the heat comes down a tiny bit heading toward midweek but the storm chances increase as the upper atmosphere cools and a front approaches from the northwest.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Humid. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except variable under 10 MPH well inland.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A late-night shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH and central MA. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 87-94. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind SW 10-20 MPH

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)
A cold front will pass through the region early August 22 with a morning shower/thunderstorm then a drying trend and a shot of cooler/drier air that will last through early August 24. After that, high pressure slides offshore and a late summer warm-up occurs, returning temperatures to above normal with higher humidity but dry weather August 25-26.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)
High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will keep it warm to hot and humid and keep most shower/thunderstorm activity north and west of the region the couple days of the period. The last few days of the month will continue warm/humid but with an increasing shower/storm risk as a boundary to the west and north gets closer in response to weaker high pressure offshore.

93 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK!

    It’s quite early, but if things don’t change much, Wednesday has severe weather written all over it.

    1. It’ll probably be the 3rd time in 4 weeks that Hampton’s Wednesday fireworks are postponed until Friday. 😉 They are down to 2 weeks for that summer thing, but they still have a few more displays left after August 28’s Wednesday finale. September 1 & 7, and December 31. I’ll probably be at all of them. 😉

    1. Yes, it is Atlas. Last year, the person taking the ID’s at the gate I went through was none other than the wife of the C.E.O. I joked about him giving her a low paying job. 😉 She was very nice. It’s a well-organized event, which includes vendors, entertainment including live music, and sky diving. The fireworks display itself is 1/2 hour pyro-musical set to a themed soundtrack. This year’s theme is “Woodstock” (no surprise there). All the songs on the soundtrack will be from 1969.

  4. Thank you as always, TK…
    Hope everyone is well and enjoys a nice weekend.

    0.64 of rain here in the last 25 days. Lawns are a mid-summer, crispy brown.

    Mike Yastrzemski hit 3 dingers last night. Lil Yaz now has 16 HRs in 70 games for the Giants. The Giants play at Fenway September 17-19. Grandpa Carl turns 80 on Thursday!!!!

    Three teacher days for me August 27-29. Students start in Middleborough on Tuesday, September 3. Next year will be interesting. Labor Day, in 2020, will be much later in September. To avoid going late in June, I will bet the students start at the end of August. There are also two elections in the Fall of 2020. Because they use MHS as a polling place, Middleborough normally does not have classes on election days.

    This was 50 years ago this morning:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHTdrPL22-Y

    1. The WHO! I guess they’ll be playing that in Jaffrey later today, along with Hendrix, Havens, Baez, Cocker, Santana, CSNY, etc …

      And guess who traded Yaz in March of this year? The incompetent Orioles. That is a woeful franchise, with no upside except Trey Mancini. So different when I was a kid.

  5. I think schools should never start in August. I think they should obviously have Labor Day off but start before Labor Day if the September 1 is on a Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. I understand when it’s on a Friday they’d only have 1 day then a 3-day weekend, but that is only going to happen once very 5 to 6 years – no big deal. August is not for school. It’s for summer. As it is now, we get to August 1 and the majority of the population considers summer to be “over”. They’re busy buying pumpkin spice iced coffees in 90 degree weather between school shopping trips while some of the best conditions of the year (and the warmest water) is sitting right at our own beaches, just to name one place. It’s a shame it’s turned into this. I’m glad my kids are beyond school age and I don’t have to be caught up in having to get stuff for them before summer’s barely half over, because in 2 weeks that stuff will be gone and replaced with your Christmas shopping needs!

    1. And yet all schools in the south begin in August which I don’t get, and probably never will. Makes ZERO sense, of all locations in North America. I bet Canadian schools don’t start until September, if not October.

      1. I never really got that either. Yes the sun angle is high when they get out in May, but their most brutal summer weather includes August. Perhaps these days it’s more for having more people in air conditioning. I don’t know. I’ve just never liked the idea of kids in school in summer. I think they need that break, and that collectively every season needs to stop being rushed.

  7. Earlier in the week, I was watching the Sox day game in Cleveland. At some point, Dave O’Brien mentioned there were a lot of kids in the crowd, probably because school started in Cleveland the next day, August 15th.

    So, I had to look and called up Cleveland’s public school schedule, figuring they got out around Memorial Day weekend.

    Nope, mid June. They have 195 day school year !! I know in Wilmington, they have 185 day school year.

    So, comparatively, our 180 days is a short school year and students/teachers are fortunate to get all the time off we do.

    1. Perhaps that 195 days includes some professional days when the teachers plan but the students have the day off.

    2. I bet if you tested Cleveland kids vs. Boston on performance tests there would be not one iota difference in scores.

    3. Yikes Tom. I did look and found one article that listed all states number of days and In some cases hours per year. It seemed that professional days might be included. In the article re Finland that I found, it said they can have up to 190 days. That number is decreased by holidays and vacations.

      And sadly the most successful school system in the world has the least ampint of time in school per year and tries to improve learning creatively rather than increasing school hours. In MA younger grades are about 900 hours per year to 640 in Finland.

      In England, the average was 899 hours, in France, 847 hours and in Japan, 800 hours.

  8. I know this opinion won’t be popular, but the traditional school schedule is silly and not conducive to optimum learning.

    We give students 9 to 11 weeks off for summer break and then when they return to school, teachers want to start to build on previous knowledge and can’t because most students, understandably, need a review on most topics that they haven’t thought of or used one iota for 2 to 2.5 months.

    I don’t know about anyone else, but if I don’t use a skill or something for 2 to 3 weeks, I usually start to lose mastery of that skill. 9 to 11 weeks.

    Then, in 9 to 9.5 months, we pack in the whole school year and as curriculum standards continue to rightly become more vigorous, you create one stress ball of a year for many students.

    The ideal schedule would have a more spread out school year, maybe a 5 week summer break, with additional breaks throughout the year to keep students more refreshed and less stressed out, which would improve learning. Anxiety and stress is the ultimate paralyzer when it comes to learning.

    1. Hmmm. We were typing at about the same time. I’d go for that if there were shorter days and less homework and standardized tests were eliminated. But the question is why this works so well in Finland. I understand it is a small country. We have small towns though.

      1. Can you tell I’m ready to get going ? 🙂 🙂

        With that said, I’m headed to southern Maine and Cape Cod at some points next week.

        But, I was in my classroom last week, setting it up and was looking forward to the upcoming school year.

        1. It seems impossible that school is about to begin again. I’m glad you are off on another trip. You sure do enjoy your summer break to the fullest

      1. Probably true TK and yes, Philip, a change to that would require upgrades in school’s that would need A/C.

  9. July 5th : Back-to-School ads
    August 1st : Pumpkin Spice drinks
    Labor Day (weekend) : Halloween costumes
    Columbus Day : Christmas decorating begin in stores/malls
    Halloween: Christmas store decorating complete; items on shelves
    Thanksgiving Day : Giving thanks for Black Friday
    December 26th : Valentine’s Hearts on shelves
    February 15th : Easter eggs etc. on shelves

    1. Christmas displays are already out in many stores, including BJ’s, who has a full section dedicated to it.

    2. Works for me. I operate on my own schedule. Marketing doesn’t control people. Although, I have had to delay putting my tree up due to the upcoming HHH forecast 😉

        1. I don’t mind it because as I’ve said a million times…..anticipation is Half the joy. But I’m more like a kid when it comes to holidays. My grandkids get a kick out of seeing stuff go up. Me too.

  10. On a weather topic …..

    Not necessarily for New England, I find it a bit ominous that the tropics have been so quiet.

    It’s mid August, so, there’s going to be no easing into the heart of the season.

    Once the tropics in the Atlantic get active, I worry we may not “ease” in with a strong tropical storm or cat 1 hurricane, but may go straight to a cat 2 or 3 or stronger after such a quiet start. Kind of like Andrew.

    1. I agree re tropics. Youngest and family just returned from Disney and oldest and family are there now. Both were a bit concerned about the tropics suddenly waking up

  11. Just checking dew points across the region. Most are in the 68-72 range with
    some 66 North of the Pike. BUT our friend Logan is sitting at 64. NO WAY it is 64 here. No WAY!! My equipment says 70 and it FEELS like it for sure.

    Logan’s wind is right off of the water. Usually that accounts for an uptic in Dew point, but with this air mass souping up, the drier air is actually to the EAST. I assume
    that accounts for the lower DP at the airport, unless their dp sensor is wacked out
    as well as their thermometer.

    Anyhow, say hi to the YUCKIES once again!

    1. It’s sneaky humidity, because to me, at first the breeze feels cool. Then, your out in it for a few minutes and start to sweat.

  12. Just got the reverse 911 from northborough re EEE in this area. There was a second case. This time in Grafton. They are asking people to cancel outdoor activities at critical times. Hopkinton is on the list of towns, JPD, but am sure your daughter knows. It appears Plymouth country is the other risk area.

    It amazes me that we have had a vaccine for horses for decades and still not one for humans.

  13. It’s not really ominous that the tropics are quiet. I expected them to be. Saharan dust, dry air, and the lack of high pressure aloft have all worked against storm formation this season, so far. Those conditions will subside gradually and we’ll see some activity going forward, but I highly doubt we’ll come close to NHC’s updated forecast numbers. They should have down-tweaked.

  17. Thanks TK!
    If the tropics do wake up suddenly and there are multiple storms out in the Atlantic, their intensity may be lessened due to upwelling if they occur in the same general area.
    On a different note I’m looking forward to watching the pats tonight even though it’s only a preseason game, and most likely Brady won’t see one snap, still will be fun to watch.

  18. Tom, I agree with your assessment. It jibes with what is routine in England and the Netherlands. They have longer breaks at Christmas/New Years and Easter. They also have a week off in October, February, and late May. Their summer vacation is short; about 5 weeks. That would be problematic here, given that it’s generally much warmer throughout the summer months.

    By the way, colleges are starting classes earlier than before. Many begin in late August, which didn’t happen 20 years ago.

  22. Quizzes.

    1) Clouds are generally classified based on …
    A. Altitude
    B. Appearance
    C. Origin
    D. All of the above

    2) Which one of the following does not belong with the others.
    A. Eyewall
    B. Saffir-Simpson Scale
    C. Tsunami
    D. Andrew

    Answers tonight.

  23. Boston’s marine air is being displaced as I write this. I can sense the southerly as opposed to (south)easterly in the last couple of hours. I haven’t confirmed this change in wind direction, but I sense it from being out and about. 90s are on the way this week.

      1. Thanks for correcting me on this. I just felt it was much warmer, and so I presumed the wind had shifted.

  24. Boston’s record Monday is 92. It won’t be any massive news if they break it, other than it would be their first record high of the summer.

    1. Thanks, TK. That’s a surprising low record. Must just be a statistical anomaly. I would have thought the records this time of year would all be in the mid to high 90s, right through the first week of September.

  27. It is an amazingly lovely night in Sutton…weather wise and else wise

    Son and family, youngest daughter and family, and I celebrated Macs 70th…Monday. I had seen that a local farm has hard cider for sale so headed this this am. Just in time for Mac’s Celebration, it is called “Mac and friends”. 🙂

  28. Oddly the line of storms is coming from our NW but it is to the SSE that I see the very dark clouds

  30. I don’t know about up there Vicki but down here in CT sunset has been before 8pm since this past Sunday. Couple severe thunderstorm warnings out north of Springfield CT

  31. When that sun starts setting before 8pm to me were on the back nine of summer and before too long fall will be here.
    Some of the wording for this severe thunderstorm warning for northwestern Worcester county northwestern Middlesex county and northeastern Franklin County.
    Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

    1. Well. Hmmmm. It looks as if the worst is north of here. With that wording, I am ok with that and hope it all dies down for everyone

  33. Both the severe thunderstorm expire 9:15 so will see if new severe thunderstorm warnings extend further east.

  35. Sorry I went absent last night. I was in the Monadnocks and my signal was often non-existent, and then they pushed up the fireworks by 75 minutes to beat the storms, which they did, for the most part. The line’s rain arrived during the finale, which by then everybody was beside their cars ready to jump in (this place and this event knows how to deal with weather). The display was awesome, and the display going on from nature behind and to the left of the display was equally so, as was the thunderstorm that swept across the area (though the lightning cores were not overhead). We had one strike about 2 miles to the east after the line had passed the air park (we were all parked on the runway). Once the worst went by, they started the process of getting people out of there, which is quite organized. During my drive back home which took me down 124 to 119 to 495 to 2 to 95 I basically caught up with, passed through, and got just ahead of the line and got quite a lightning show, including a bolt that struck a highway sign I had just passed under several seconds before, but got to see since I was taking an exit and turned right around at it. 🙂 Less than 1 second between the very visible bolt and the crack of thunder, which was muffled due to heavy rainfall. Fun afternoon and evening!

    I may not get the update complete until shortly after 10AM.

    And yes, the storms surviving as far east as they did and as organized as they did was pretty much a complete surprise to me. I figured they would make it into the Berks/Greens and fall apart there. I expected a more impressive line to move further east tonight, not last night. We’ll see what happens.

    1. What an awesome night for you. Fireworks and a chase. Does it get better? I may be chatting with you about the events handling of weather and traffic. I suspect we could learn from it in Sutton.

    2. Even for a seasoned meteorologist, that must have been quite an experience. Those really close lightning strikes though…

  36. Good morning. The line survived to the city. We got 0.13 inch around 1-1:30 AM
    this morning.

    We shall see about today.

  38. Answers to yesterday’s Quizzes.

    1) Clouds are generally classified based on …
    A. Altitude
    B. Appearance
    C. Origin
    D. All of the above

    The answer is D.

    2) Which one of the following does not belong with the others.
    A. Eyewall
    B. Saffir-Simpson Scale
    C. Tsunami
    D. Andrew

    The answer is C.

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