Monday Forecast

110 Comments

6:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)
No, Boston is not about to have a heatwave. They need 3 days of 90+ for that, and they’ll get one, perhaps 2. But in true August fashion, it will be very warm to hot and humid to start this week and that humidity will indeed linger through midweek even as the heat drops off. A series of troughs and eventually a sweeping cold front will be responsible for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms that will range from isolated to as much as a solid line. When will all that happen? Hard to determine until we get into each day and see how things develop, but I can say that we have a shot at a few showers/storms around the first half of this morning, the second half of this afternoon into this evening, a limited risk Tuesday, and a much greater risk Wednesday, which may linger into Thursday. The sweeping front, mentioned above, is due to clear the region sometime Thursday night, allowing a dry airmass to arrive at the very end of the work week on Friday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms early to mid morning, again mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod & Islands, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 84-91 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Less humid. Patchy fog evening favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)
Expect high pressure to dominate the weather with mainly dry conditions August 24-27 with a comfortable beginning then a slow build in heat and humidity. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
A boundary between offshore high pressure and Canadian high pressure will bring a shower and thunderstorm risk the last few days of August before high pressure from Canada temporarily wins the battle to bring drier air in to start September. Temperatures will likely run above normal through this period.

110 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  6. Thank you, TK.

    Cool that SAK is on a ship – or some kind of vessel – out in the Atlantic.

    It’s possible Boston (well, Logan) doesn’t get to 90F at all this week. I wouldn’t bet on it, but upper 80s at the immediate coast may be all that Boston gets.

    1. Definitely humid. It’s been that way for a couple of days. What impresses me is the humidity on the Cape and the Islands. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.

  9. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Boston made it briefly to 81 yesterday, while at my house in JP, we touched
    90 (This is with my new Davis equipment mounted on top of a 5 1/2 pole secured in grass) very briefly at 2:04 PM, with most of the afternoon in the upper 80s. The point being that the neighborhoods “could” see a heat wave, while the official reporting station hasn’t a chance at all. I can’t stand the fact that the “official” climate station
    for Boston is Logan airport.

    I can understand why you need a station at the airports, but the “official” climate
    station for Boston should be somewhere like the Boston Common, Public gardens
    or Copley Square, not the freaking airport. New York City has 3 official reporting
    stations, Laguardia airport, JFK airport and Central Park. Why Can’t Boston
    have Logan Airport and Boston Common?????????????????? Just makes too
    much sense, I guess. Anyway, I PROTEST !!!!!

  12. Looking at the current run of the HRRR for today it wants to develop a line of showers and thunderstorms in the 5pm -8pm time period. The 6z NAM Nest on the cod site also wants to develop a line of showers and thunderstorms in that 5pm – 8pm time period.
    This doesn’t look a big severe weather threat today but just like the past two days I would not be surprised to see somewhere in SNE if there are locally strong to marginally severe storms.

    1. Current run of HRRR (13Z) did NOT pick up the current convection
      in SW Connecticut. Therefore, how do we trust that run?????
      Answer: We Don’t
      Let’s see IF the next run picks that up. 🙂
      Sometimes it is good at correcting itself.

  13. Agree, JP Dave, that Boston should not measure `its’ temperature at Logan. I’m in Back Bay and almost always warmer than Logan by 1-2 degrees in summer and colder than Logan by 1-2 degrees in winter.

  16. A couple cells popping in CT the one you mentioned JpDave and then another just north of me. This shows the atmosphere is unstable when were getting stuff to pop in the morning hours.

  18. That model run you posted JpDave was pretty similar with that line of showers and storms that the 6z run showed.

  20. Answers to yesterday’s AccuWeather Quizzes.

    1) On this date in 1955, which hurricane hit New England causing massive flooding?

    A. Anne
    B. Bonnie
    C. Carol
    D. Diane
    The correct answer is D.

    2) Which hurricane slammed into New England on August 19, 1991?

    A. Bob
    B. Carol
    C. Gloria
    D. Nick

    The correct answer is A.

    2. A little misleading in that Diane didn’t actually hit New England in terms of landfall, just its flooding rains. Also, there’s always talk about how climate change is bringing about more and stronger hurricanes. What about all the storms of the 1950’s? What was their excuse? I would argue those were worse than recent events. Not denying climate change here, just pointing out that the most recent events tend to shape our minds and cause the most reaction. In reality, there have been other decades that produced the same extreme weather as we have seen recently.

      1. I’ve made the same argument but it often gets twisted into nice denying anything to do with climate change.

        The points that I try to make is that events like that are not exclusive to now and cannot be blindly attributed to man-made climate change. In short, I agree with your statement.

    1. I’m not surprised Logan hit that as early as 7 am this morning out in the field in the city I knew it was going to be a hot one .

  23. That is a mean looking cell in agawam. Looks like I might be getting some action here if it holds together. I don’t see why it wouldn’t. Sun is out 90 degrees no cumulous clouds to speak of preceding this to block the heating. I think it should be a good show. Always find it odd to hear deep rumbles of thunder with full sun out, and it’s still a distance away.

  25. Jp Dave my vantage pro is giving me a 76 dew point. YUCK!!!!!
    I certainly hope your wife is doing ok with this high humidity.

    1. Mine is giving 73. It was 74 a minute ago. She’s hanging in at her computer in AC, while I am at mine without AC in 85 degrees. Thank you.

    2. what do you have for temp?

      My Vantage VUE is reading 95 with DP 74 right now. YUCK!!!!
      Heat Index = 105

  26. I agree with you. Not liking the look of that cell. Nearly continuous thunder with that in the distance.

  27. HRRR timing for storms in the Boston area, between about 5PM and 6PM.
    Nearly perfect for the worst of it. We shall see.

  30. South Central looks like you are about to get nailed.
    Be careful and good luck. Let us know how it went.

  31. Those are some intense storms in west-central MA. No question on whether those are severe or not. Prolific lightning too.

  33. While these storms may rotate weakly, as severe thunderstorms often do, the tornado threat is quite low today. Little bit of low level veering, but not much. Wind/hail threat is certainly there though because of the instability, although I’m a little surprised that we’re seeing golf ball size hail on such a hot day.

  34. I’ll be back on my admin account momentarily. I wouldn’t worry much about any tornado potential today.

    I’m really just echoing what WxW just said above. Some of these storms do have the potential to produce rather sizable hail however. Others may produce damaging wind. I say bravo to NWS for issuing the watch.

  35. To my eye, those storms out there appear to have weakened a tad.
    Pulsing a bit perhaps? I dunno. Still worthy of watching closely.

  36. I already see signs of it…Here’s what usually happens. The line or cells split such
    that one cell/segment passes North of the city and the other cell/segment passes
    South of the city! I can’t tell you how many times this has happened.

    In any case, I can already see the blow off from these storms. 🙂

  37. Well that’s what happens when you have a day off and take a nap. Thanks for the comments not to worry about a tornado. Looks to slide under us again. We are on the very northern tip of the warning box.

  38. Jp Dave unfortunately I had to leave my house just before it hit. I was in Charlton when it came through lots of lightning heavy rain but the wind was not as bad here as it was in the holland, monson area. I checked my rain gauge looks like 1/2 inch of rain in 15 min at my house. I’ll see how much wind damage if any. Hopefully none. Still in Charlton at the moment.

  39. The “nasty” stuff is very isolated today. Most storms are garden variety or less. But the intense ones have been pretty good. About 2 more hours left in the threat window before things wind down rapidly.

  41. Nasty storms, they were, about 20 miles west of York, ME. Definitely weakened as they hit the coast, but still provided heavy rain showers and caused a mass exodus off the beach.

  43. Lots of rumbling still but just about past. It was a nice run of the mill storm here. Not sure about in the thick of it.

  45. Not so fast Vicki. Check the radar. One coming in hot right for you. You may get in on the action yet. 😉

    1. It seems to also be slip slidin away….or going south 😉

      Did you have any? They looked a bit south of you also but I got in on checking the radars late

  47. Pitch black to our northwest!!! Storm over Attleboro and Norton heading here. Winds picking up!

      1. Quick turn to the left at the last second. The heaviest of the weather went to the north of us (I live on the Norton side of Taunton) toward Easton and Bridgewater. Another blip just coming into northwestern Rhode Island.

  48. As we know from Longshot’s quiz yesterday, Hurricane Bob was ripping through the area at this hour 28 years ago today.

    1. I do remember. I thought it was a great way do mac to celebrate his birthday. Oddly, I’m not sure he did 😉

  49. We get a break from thunderstorms tomorrow. Wednesday could be another day were watching to see if anything develops.
    Tweet From Eric Fisher
    An active afternoon today but Wednesday looks more ‘interesting’ from a severe weather perspective. Warm & humid, disturbance approaching from the west, warm front in the area. Will be the main day to watch this week.

  50. they have done an admirable job with the warnings today but I will say I don’t understand the current one extending to the South Shore. One of the first times I’ve seen a warning for an invisible storm. 😉

  51. TK do you agree with Eric’s tweet that I posted that Wed could be a day to watch out for thunderstorms with the warm front in the area and disturbance moving in from the west?

  52. Thank goodness they canceled that warning. They had a severe thunderstorm warning out for a RAIN SHOWER out of a cloud base about 10,000 feet. I have NO idea why they did that.

    Other than unnecessarily extending a warning eastward two times, they did a good job today.

  53. Vicki I got hit twice, was not home for either, however there were a bunch of small twigs and leaves in the yard when I got home. . Weather station picked up a 28 mph gust, however between the two storms I received 1.27” of rain. Not to shabby. I also saw a vivid rainbow on the way home. How about you?

  54. Wimporama, Not!
    A complete NO SHOW!!!
    not even enough rain to
    trip the rain gauge which is set
    at 0 01 inch.

    I at leasr expected the lawn tobget a drink.

    there is an echo left behind.
    perhaps we’ll get 1/10;th ibch???

  55. Did anyone catch a glimpse of the British RAF Red Arrows this morning as they did a flypast over Boston? I was out jogging and heard a roar (well, several), looked up and saw at least 8 red fighter jets racing overhead. I’ve seen blue, green, and gray American fighters, but never red. So, I did wonder what was happening. Turns out the British RAF was `in town.’ Here’s an article with some nice photos and video. I like the British Red Arrow tweet “A flypast over beautiful Boston.” They had a tremendous view of our world class city as they flew past.

    https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2019/08/19/red-arrows-boston-flyover-photos-video

    1. It dropped here too. The trough went by. I had a wind shift and it’s breezy and getting rather comfy.

  57. On to Wednesday and see what happens with thunderstorms that day. I heard thunder in the distance but the line of storms formed south of me and I missed out on the action.

  58. Mark hope you didn’t lose power with the storms that rolled through your area.
    Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    About 10,000 UI and Eversource outages across the state. Fairfield, Madison, Coventry, Westport were hardest hit.

  59. JJ, I am working late in the office here in Manchester. That line of strong to severe storms blew up just south and east of us here, as well as in north Coventry where I live. Heard thunder and saw cloud to ground lightning strikes to my east but barely a drop of rain.

    I am hearing that south and east Coventry got hammered though. Several trees and power lines down. Missed my neighborhood by about 3 miles to the south.

  63. With the storms today there were areas that saw nothing but other areas got nailed.
    Mark I am glad to hear the worst of the weather missed you.

  65. The anniversary of Hurricane Bob was mentioned earlier. I was in high school in Upstate NY at the time so didnt feel the brunt of it but remember following it intently on the TWC.

    Here is some vintage video of The Weather Channel coverage of Hurricane Bob from Jim Cantore and John Hope:

    https://youtu.be/Pg0Lk4cc2X8

    Ironically, the reporter from RI in this video (Herb Stevens) was a local meterologist on WNYT in Albany NY who I grew up watching for many years. Some may also know him previously as the “skiing weatherman”.

  66. I remember growing up seeing Herb Stevens on WTNH do his weekly ski reports for the ski areas in New England. His reports would end with him skiing down a slope saying I am Herb Stevens the skiing weatherman I will see next week from

    1. Yes, he used to be one of my favorites back then. I guess he stopped doing the skiing weatherman thing 4 or 5 years ago and now has a company in his home state of RI where he forecasts the weather for golf courses.

  69. So yesterday went about as expected. Boston to the Cape was not expected to see much. North and west of there was more primed both conditionally in the atmosphere and timing for sun’s help. If there was one surprise it was how long the last batch in RI held on.

    All quiet today. Not so tomorrow. Blog is updated!

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