Wednesday Forecast

200 Comments

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)
A warm front passes through the region this morning and midday from southwest to northeast, carrying a round of showers/thunderstorms mainly through central MA into southern NH, causing a spike in humidity, and setting the region up for other rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, beginning this afternoon and coming in a few waves of potential through Thursday evening, until a cold front has passed by. Will try to now-cast the rounds of activity in the comments when possible. Once we get to early Friday, one last wave of low pressure may wet southeastern areas before a nice dry air mass arrives for the end of the week into the weekend, but by Sunday, the orientation of high pressure may help switch the regionwide wind flow to east, so we’d have marine influences, which could include coastal low clouds and fog, and at the very least temperatures that would be significantly cooler at the beach than over the interior.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, favoring early to mid morning (central MA to southern NH) and again later in the afternoon (favoring central MA and southern NH). Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple episodes of showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring areas northwest of a Boston-Providence line. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in any location. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring eastern and southern MA through RI. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a period of showers possible RI and southeastern MA, otherwise clearing. Drying out. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Coastal fog possible. Highs 70-77 eastern MA and RI, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind E 5-15 MPH

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)
High pressure will bring great late summer weather August 26-27 with the area between a departing trough in the Canadian Maritimes and low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Higher humidity and disturbances moving into the region from the west will enhance the risk of showers and thunderstorms at times August 28-30.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
The end of August and first few days of September look humid and slightly unsettled with occasional shower threats as a broad trough moves into the Great Lakes, high pressure is off the Atlantic Coast, and a frontal boundary wavers around the East Coast. Don’t expect this to be a stretch of washed out days, but we may be watching for shower activity on a nearly daily basis.

200 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Should be a pretty active day in SNE. Not sure exactly how it will play out in terms of how many rounds and what the hazards will be with each one, but all modes of severe weather appear possible to me. Definitely a day to keep very close tabs on the weather.

    In other news, there’s a named tropical storm somewhere in this image… can you find it?

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-atlantic-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

        1. Really? I first thought that bright orb way south but then saw the area east of us. See how easily amused I am 😉

  8. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I honestly don’t know what to make of today.
    While half asleep earlier, I looked at the HRRR and the NAMS and came away
    bewildered as in almost non-existent convection in Boston. A real head scratcher.

    Then I see most of the warm front convection well N&W of the city, indicating to
    me that there “should” be decent sunshine today destabilizing the atmosphere
    and setting us up for some serious convection. (btw plenty of decent sunshine in the
    City right now, not full, but decent enough)

    Frankly I am CONFUSED????????????????????????????????

    So is the main focus (Lifting mechanism) going to remain West of the coastal plain,
    leaving the coast High and Dry. What else is new??????

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Boston is clearly not the focus of Round 1. Vicki, South Central, and others (I believe we have someone from Leominster on the blog?) will be at ringside for this round. I think Boston may even miss out on Round 2, but perhaps the later rounds.

    No matter what, the air is soupy as advertised. But, this is not an especially hot week. One day above 90F in Boston. Nor will next week be very hot. So, that hype from last week’s TV forecasts was overblown, in my opinion.

    Good luck, Sue. Hopefully, you’ll be out of court in a couple of hours.

    1. Hype it was. At one point a few days ago BZ had 96 and 97 for Tues and Wed this week respectively…

    1. ha ha ha good one.

      But why do I get the feeling that Boston will be LEFT out of the action.

      Just don’t like the vibes I am getting. 🙂

  11. SPC Outlook for today. Including a 2% tornado chance for a good chunk of SNE.
    From SPC discussion.
    With somewhat backed low-level winds in the warm-frontal zone, and a southerly component just to its south in the warm sector, hodographs also may enlarge enough to yield isolated mesocyclones and a marginal tornado threat, generally overlapping the greatest hail potential, mainly over portions of New England.
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

    1. Yet still no evidence of it on the SREF. I don’t get that. Looks like SPC is going with other guidance.

    2. 12Z HRRR is pretty bullish on tornado threat, most especially in
      the area highlighted by the SPC. Even though it shows a tornado threat
      for Boston, it does NOT match up with any convection shown.

      I like to look at these models and IGNORE the threat EXCEPT in areas
      that have simulated radar returns. The threat is meaningless without associated
      convection. We don’t get a tornado out of thin air.

      In those highlighted areas, the 12Z HRRR had deep convections associated
      with the tornado threat indicated. And the indication is for fiarly strong tornadoes as in EF2 and possibly EF3.

      Here is a sounding for West of Springfield area. (with associated convection)

      https://imgur.com/a/kxf7fVT

      Here is the sounding for Boston (with NO associated convection)

      https://imgur.com/a/ttVg4Ul

  12. Quick peak of the latest SREF it has northern parts of VT and NH in that slight tornado risk. I missed out any showers and storms with the warm front passage a few hours ago. It is cloudy and if meteorologist Gil Simmons said on tv this morning if the clouds hang tough that will lower the severe weather threat today but if around midday the sun comes out for a couple hours be on the lookout for some potent thunderstorms.

  15. From Norton NWS office around 7AM this morning:

    SB CAPE climbs to 1500-2500 J/Kg,
    as has been indicated in previous days, while LI values range
    from down to -7. Winds aloft show 30 kt at 850 mb and 35 kt at
    500 mb. Helicity in the 0-3 Km layer shows 150 to 250, a little
    higher than forecast in past days. Based on this we expect a
    continued risk of strong/damaging thunderstorm winds.

  16. The latest HRRR is showing those rounds of thunderstorms with one middle of the afternoon and another early evening hours.

  18. IF that clearing from southern NJ southeast PA doesn’t move into SNE this MAY be a bust when it comes to strong to severe storms today.

  19. From Meteorologist John Homenuk
    HREF clearly focusing the best potential for rotation/mesocyclones from areas south/east of Albany into W CT/MA.

  20. 12Z NAM NOT showing much in the way of CAPE. A bit more than 1,000 joules
    at best. Soundings now showing MARGINAL Severe.

    I “think” this run is reflecting the cloud cover.

    Previous runs had CAPE upwards of 3,000 joules or more.

    We shall see what the HRRR continues to show and watch radar trends.

  22. 12z NAM wants to focus the better instability over CT RI south shore Cape and Islands today. This could end up a day we look back at the end of it and say there was a lot of potential but it never materialized.

  24. If anybody is confused just re-read my summary from yesterday.

    Round 1 is benign and traveling about where it was expected.

    1. I am not confused about round 1.
      I am confused (not from you) about SPC, NWS and models.
      Something is not jiving here.

    2. This is wording for Round 1 – correct?

      Round 1: Warm front t-storms from SW to NE, favoring CT, western and central to northeastern MA and southern NH. These storms have the greatest potential for rotation and therefore the greatest potential for any tornadic activity, should it get to that point.

  25. I get the impression based on TK’s thoughts above that Boston has nothing to be concerned about for today in that it should be mostly dry. The sky, however is a different story in that it looks like it wants to pour at any moment. Yet the current radar is totally clear just about all of SNE.

    Should I run errands today or is tomorrow better? I have to get back to work Friday so no option there. I just want to stay dry.

    1. Latest HRRR (IF you want to believe it) has about .21 inch rain In Boston
      Beginning around 1PM ish or so.

  26. From what I can tell, the HRRR has NOT been picking up the convection over LI and in
    Southern CT. very well at all.

  29. The sun starting to come out where I am. Will see if it stays out for a couple hours and allows the atmosphere really destabilize.

  30. Norton NWS 10:15 AM update:

    Visible satellite loop indicating lots of breaks developing
    upstream so expect partial sunshine developing. Warm front
    across northern MA will lift into NH with warm sector airmass
    across SNE. Dewpoints already into the mid 70s along the south
    coast and this high dewpoint air will spread northward. This
    combined with temps reaching the mid 80s will result in CAPEs
    1500-2500 J/kg which should compensate for marginal mid level
    lapse rates. Expect increasing coverage of showers/t-storms
    moving into western New Eng after 18z as mid level shortwave
    moves into New Eng.

    Deep layer shear 30-35 kt sufficient for storms to organize into
    multi-cellular line segments per the hi-res CAMs, with
    scattered strong to severe storms expected. Damaging wind and
    large hail are the primary threat. Increasing 850 mb winds to
    30-35 kt this afternoon will lead to low level helicity
    increasing to 100-150 m2/s2. So a few supercells can`t be ruled
    out and will have to watch for potential rotating storms which
    could produce an isolated tornado. While all SNE is at risk for
    severe storms, the greatest risk will be across northern CT into
    interior MA where best updraft helicity is focused. Timing of
    strongest storms will be 3-9 pm.

    In addition, PWATs pushing 2 inches this afternoon so risk of
    heavy rainfall may result in areas of urban and poor drainage
    flooding, especially in areas of thunderstorm training.

  31. I can confirm where I am the visible satellite is correct where I am. Now I am just waiting to see what happens. I would not be surprised sometime this afternoon a severe thunderstorm watch is issued.

  34. I am wondering if that line in the Hudson River Valley of NY will rob the energy for other line of thunderstorms that form later.

  35. Seeing some low level cumulus with thinning and breaks in the higher overcast.
    definite brightening up here.

    1. Nice discussion well worth a read.

      SUMMARY…Intensifying thunderstorms posing a risk for potentially
      damaging wind gusts and, perhaps, an isolated tornado or two, appear
      increasingly possible by 2-4 PM EDT. This could require the
      issuance of one or two severe weather watches.

  37. Clearly from that statement the SPC thinks there will be more lines of thunderstorms that develop behind the line that out over Hudson River Valley of NY.

  38. I just don’t see anything happening/developing that impresses me at the moment.
    Will that change? I dunno, we’ll see.

  39. 15Z HRRR now shows the convection near Albany, BUT it shows it collapsing and weakening quickly????? Don’t get that at all????????????

  40. There is a special weather statement near Poughkeepsie NY with that part of the line of thunderstorms. Winds in excess 40 mph with that storm and there is saying it may intensify. There have been breaks of sunshine west of where that storm is and it is possible it could intensify some.

          2. You do make me smile, JPD. You are like a kid on Christmas morning and truthfully there is nothing better.

  42. I have noticed in the past if more than hour goes by after the SPC issues a mesoscale discussion most of the time a watch is not issued. Just because a watch is not issued does not mean there can’t be a locally severe storm.

  43. Looks like I will miss this storm as it is traveling northeast direction. Tweet from meteorologist Josh Cingranelli.
    Keeping a close eye on this thunderstorm moving toward New Preston, Warren, Kent, and Cornwall. While broad there still is a little rotation in areas of this storm.

  46. The worst of that storm is missing me. Heard some thunder in the distance and getting a few showers right now.

  48. It’s interesting how the cells in north central mass are moving more NNE, while the CT cells are moving ENE.

    I would think the cell movement of the CT cells offers more chance of wind shear within the cells.

  49. There is clearing to the west and I am wonder if the atmosphere will be able to recharge in time for another round of thunderstorms later on today.

  50. Visible satellite shows some breaks of sun in northeast CT.

    Temps in that area are in low-mid 80s with dp >= 70F.

    I think these have some staying power next couple of hours and are watchers.

  51. Technically I am under a severe thunderstorm warning but winds are gusting that strong but plenty of lightning and thunder.

  52. SPC has removed the meso discussion and issued NO watch. There’s a surprise. 🙂

    Cells popping all over. Safety in numbers????

    Again, not impressed and rather disappointed to be honest. Not even a friggin watch.
    Oh well. Winter is coming!

    1. There are about 6 cells situated SW to NE from just West of Providence to
      just SW of Boston. Most “appear” to be heading my way.
      Time will tell.

  53. Two cells (or two halves of the same storm) have popped north of Providence and seem to be travelling northeast along I-95.

    1. Indeed they are. The double barreled one is about over Woonsocket, RI about
      to pass into Bellingham and Wrentham. 🙂

    1. ha ha ha. Good one Tom.
      Meso was down as they were about to issue watch. Looked at the exact
      WRONG time. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  59. I got the sun coming back out after a thunderstorm passed my area. Now I wait and see if anything else develops.

    1. They did not issue a tornado watch, but it was pretty telling the way they
      worked in the 1 or 2 tornadoes possible.

  61. From Ryan Hanrahan about the severe thunderstorm warning in Hartford County
    Watching some weak rotation in Farmington/New Britain. Tornado potential is low for now but we’re watching it.

  62. Cells approaching Boston ALL WENT poof as they reach about 128. Go Figure.
    Getting sick of this crap.

  63. HRRR is NOT even REMOTELY capturing convection as it is actually occurring.
    PISS-POOR-PERFORMANCE today.

  66. From Eric Fisher
    Meanwhile NW of Albany, NY…a likely tornado (currently warned) in Johnstown

  68. I am going to be in Milford at the Dana meeting and then out to dinner. I am not a fan of not being home to watch but this is out last meeting. Stay safe all please

  69. Yikes, Amsterdam, NY is where I grew up and my mother lives. Johnstown is just NW of there. Hopefully the tornado is staying NW of the City…

    Torrential rain, thunder, and some wind here in Manchester CT. Nothing severe though at the moment….

  72. That warning is up until 3:15 and is a radar indicated tornado. moving northeast. The is the first tornado warned storm in SNE today

  74. Storm over here in Manchester CT. It was decent but not even close to severe as far as winds go and no hail.

  75. There are other areas of thunderstorms developing across parts of NJ. There is sunshine out east of where there developing and it will be interested if these storms intensify as they approach western parts of CT and MA.

    1. Nice,

      Our Niece lives not all that far from there in Melbourne.
      Her husband loves to ski and probably has hit those slopes many times.

  77. Reiterating once again Boston to Providence southeastward has the least chance of seeing any activity today.

    That doesn’t mean that the moment you set foot Northwest of that line that everybody there gets mailed but that potential goes up as you move west and north and we have seen that as round 2 is on the stronger side of what I expected with a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings and one tornado warning.

    If Boston proper sees any activity it will be from round 3 or the stuff that is in New York state as of mid-afternoon, and the time frame for that will be between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m.

    1. Ignorant question. A met said the other day that many thunderstorms/cells tend to break apart or “die out” as they approach the coast. My question is why they would not hold together, unless there is a seabreeze or some other countervailing force. Surely, they continue to feed off energy from clashing air masses. And, once they’ve gotten past the Berkshires and Worcester Hills one would expect them to hold together to some degree for the trek to the coast. I realize my question is naive to any seasoned met, but I’m asking it anyway.

  79. I intermittent thunder in Milford. There was some in sutton when I left.

    Sounds as if it might be raining here

  80. Partial sun back out here as well JJ. Only going to fuel that next line of storms developing over the Hudson Valley and moving towards the CT line. We are in maximum daytime heating right now as well. Perhaps this next round will be our main event?

  81. I am wondering Mark if this will be our main event with those storms developing west of CT. Nasty thunderstorms that just moved out of CT into RI has a severe thunderstorm warning attached to it . Tomorrow the SPC has all of SNE in a marginal risk for thunderstorms.

  82. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan on The storm I was mentioned that exited CT and into RI.
    Rotation rapidly increasing on Rt 6 in Foster, RI. Just east of the state line.

    1. That cell has certainly held together over a long distance. Been watching it for a few hours now

    1. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A2KLfSDHuF1dGzoAhDRx.9w4;_ylu=X3oDMTByOHZyb21tBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg–/RV=2/RE=1566452040/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2fproducts%2fpredictions%2f814day%2f/RK=2/RS=iJKCofJ7I_JZeYY0NWwE.M6uBsI-

      Temp map hints at ridge-trof-ridge pattern in the long term. Today’s op run show Bermuda high holding strong off the coast with pretty good SW to SSW flow aloft. Definitely trends to monitor in coming days.

  86. Joshua your question about the thunderstorms weakening toward the coast often is a good one and there are at least two reasons why this may happen often…

    1) With most storms forming in the afternoon with the aid of mountains and more heated air over inland areas (NY, western MA, VT, etc), they are often reaching the coast as a line or broken area by the end of the day when we are beyond maximum heating. While this is not always the case, it occurs frequently enough to be very noticeable.

    2) Often ahead of thunderstorms we have a southwesterly wind. This is an ocean wind for the South Coast, and that stability can be transported across southeastern and eastern MA quite easily, depending on the angle of wind off the water and how long it is that way. This is also the case on many occasions where we see storms. And it is not until later in the summer what the waters are at their warmest to somewhat mitigate this effect. Again there are exceptions to this, depending on the total package of dynamics impacting the storms and their movement.

  91. So the utility pole next to our house apparently just got struck by lightning. Neighbor said the electricity traveled along the wire to our house. Kids were in the house and said there was a loud crack and everything lit up orange. Scared the hell out of them. Half the house is without power but thankfully we did not have a fire. Going to check on it now.

    Of course there is torrential rain again here now in Manchester and lightning everywhere. Wind is really picking up too. This storm is blowing up overhead.

  94. Absolutely wild. Multiple trees and branches down in Manchester. Those were easily 60-70mph winds or higher. Interstate 384 ramp is blocked by down trees as is Rte 83 near my office. Our rear parking lot flooded as well and we had a very close lightning strike.

    I just got home to check on the house.

    Hartford County now under another Tornado Warning!! This is nuts!

  96. House is fine, tripped the upstairs fuse. I reset it. Heading back to work in Manchester now to experience my second tornado of the day?? Absolutely pouring again here in Coventry.

  98. Once again Greenland is in the news. I’m telling you, more people worldwide have been paying attention to Greenland than ever before. Wouldn’t surprise me if there’s a significant uptick in tourism to Greenland. People who knew nothing about the island have been looking it up, and not just in the U.S. I read many of the European dailies online, and Greenland features prominently. Obviously, it all has to do with Trump’s desire to purchase the island, and the Danish PM’s rebuffing his advances, but still. The stock images used by the Guardian, die Frankfurter Allgemeine, Le Monde, etc … in front page articles are colorful houses dotting a snowy landscape with glaciers and mountains in the background. It’s free advertising of a place very few people in the world know much about.

  99. So to wrap up my uneventful last 3 hours…..

    -Three severe thunderstorm warnings
    -Two tornado warnings
    -Caught under a developing tornado
    -House struck by lightning

    Thankfully I am getting a 30 minute breather before this next line of storms moves in….

  100. Mark what looks to be a funnel cloud that I posted on twitter from South Coventry how far is that from your home? Certainly your part of CT has been taking it on the chin.

  101. You can definitely see who had the most sun today. Marks area was a able to destabilize more so than us here in central mass with all of the cloud cover. A lot of if it blow off from storms just to the south. We had a few VERY brief peeks here. Now as we are losing the heat of the day those storms in the berks seem to have some staying power, thinking that trough may have what it takes to give us some storms without the aid of the sun. Hopefully it will be a decent night time light show.

  102. JJ, I am in North Coventry so probably about 3 miles south of my house, however that tornadic cell on Rte 6 went directly over my office here in Manchester before heading east through Bolton, into South Coventry and over to Columbia.

    There is no question in my mind that what went over me was a funnel cloud. I just went back through my iPhone live photos and rain and trees are blowing horizontally left to right in the first several shots and then the complete opposite way in the next several photos.

    There are several large trees down in the nearby area, three in Charter Oak Park, one blocking the 384 on ramp, and another blocking Rte 83. Two canopies set up in the yard across the street were blown away.

    I believe the funnel may not have fully touched the ground when it went over me or the damage would have been worse but it was wild for a few minutes. Those were some of the strongest winds I’ve experienced in a thunderstorm before…..easily hurricane strength.

  104. Mark I saw that funnel cloud in Columbia and the video Diane from Coventry posted. I can’t tell if it touched down. If you have your own video or pics I would be interested in seeing.

  105. Thanks for the photos mark!! The unharnessed power of nature, is the reason why we all share the same interest, and admiration for weather. At least I can speak for myself.

  106. Thankfully now things are quiet with no severe or tornado warnings. Parts of eastern CT where Mark is got hit hard while other parts of CT saw nothing which to me is the nature to severe weather where some places get hit hard and others get nothing.

  108. I am attempting to upload my iPhone live photos now to Vimeo. I’ve got one where everything is blowing left to right and then the next photo seconds later where the rain and trees are blowing in the opposite direction. It had to be the funnel cloud.

    By the way, kudos to the NWS with the warnings. That storm blew up fast. I first got the severe thunderstorm, then 10 minutes later our phone went nuts with the EBS warning for the tornado and then within literally 3-4 minutes all hell broke loose.

    Of course, stupid me, I opened the door and started taking photos and videos instead of moving to the interior of the building. The door nearly blew off at one point but I couldn’t resist 🙂

  110. Here we go again!

    Torrential rain, wind, thunder and frequent lightning here in Manchester CT.

    Round 4…..

    Unreal.

      1. Sometimes you’re just the storm magnet.

        My brother lives in Manchester so I’ll have to ask him what happened at his place.

        1. I did not drive up Birch Mountain way to see if there was any damage in that area but he is not far from here!

  111. Mark I think your having enough weather excitement today that might last you to the first Nor’easter for the winter of 2019-2020.

    1. I’ve never experienced an unrelenting repeated trashing of storms like this before. Normally the first line of storms stabilizes the atmosphere and then the next round is weaker. Not today.

  113. Dear heavens. I just got home and the comments here re Marks area read like a thriller novel. First and always most important, I’m glad you and your family are all right.

    What a terrifying day for you and everyone in your area.

    1. Wow. TK should have gone down your way to chase. What a day you had. Thank you for sharing the videos

  118. Cumberland RI is getting one round after another. I can see the lightning which my tracker tells me is 20-30 miles from me as if it is over me. It is incredibly vivid

  120. TK, I am interested in your thoughts on those two live photos I posted above. Taken seconds apart with the wind blowing in the complete opposite direction. Is there anything that could have caused that besides rotation from a funnel cloud above?

    1. Interesting. My office is about a mile from the Glastonbury line and Case Mountain, yet Ryan said this:

      “Yeah there were a lot of trees down in Manchester but I think it was some kind of weak downburst… all north of the couplet. Got lucky today.”

      That radar shot would definitely make it seem like the tornado went just south of here. Whatever it was it was wild. I suppose maybe a strong downburst could temporarily shift the wind direction 180 during the storm like what happened here?

    2. I believe TK’s brother lives very close to Case Mountain. Not entirely rural like Ryan said. There are many residential roads around the base of it.

    3. I know Glastonbury well. Daughter did a fair amount of horse shows there.

      Thank heavens it was not worse than it was, Mark

  122. I didn’t think that area near Case Mountain was rural. I have not heard anything but I am wondering if NWS Norton will send out a survey team to Manchester tomorrow to see if in fact a tornado did touch down because clearly from the videos being posted there were funnel clouds.

    1. I suppose you could say it is the most rural part of Manchester but there are still plenty of houses over there….

      Very interested to see all the damage reports and what the NWS survey teams come up with tomorrow.

  123. SPC has SNE in a marginal risk tomorrow. Hopefully the thunderstorms tomorrow will be more of the garden variety.

  124. I haven’t had a chance to contact my brother yet. Will do that tomorrow (well, today now). Funny thing, I almost drove down to northern RI / eastern CT and hung around, but I was waiting for contact from chase partner who wanted to head to NH, thinking it would be worse there. But that person over-slept, and the storms were done early in that area. I should have just gone myself and sat down there.

    As far as the videos. Fascinating to watch. It is hard to say what that was. You can’t pick out rotation without having some doubt there, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a weak circulation on the ground. However, I’m leaning toward what we saw there was a weak downburst, which was moving across the area as it was occurring, with the video location being on one side of it at first, with wind blowing in one direction, then being on the other side of it at the end, with wind blowing the other way, as the broad wind flow was hitting the ground and spreading out.

    Quite the day for you, Mark. There was a boundary of some kind sitting for many hours across central CT to RI, focusing the convection there. Definitely the jackpot zone.

    1. TK, here is a screenshot of the radar from Ryan Hanrahan as the tornado was passing over Case Mountain (I believe near your brothers house).

      https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/1164342516205924353

      My office is basically right along I-384, just west of Rte 83 on that image. So it appears the actual tornado passed JUST south of me.

      The fascinating thing is that when I drove around after to look at the damage, all the downed trees, branches and debris were along and NORTH of I-384. I drove down Rte 83 to the Glastonbury line where the tornado path supposedly passed according to radar and there was no damage at all.

      The time when I observed the wind shift was about the time the tornado was passing just to my south. Perhaps some influence there? Not sure, but it is ironic that there are few damage reports along the tornado’s path which would seem to indicate the funnel cloud didn’t fully touch down. Meanwhile, there is a seemingly localized cluster of carnage here in Manchester which might be more supportive of the downdraft theory.

      Fascinating day to say the least and glad to hear there were no injuries anywhere.

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